Surface Temperature Trend Estimation over 12 Sites in Guinea Using 57 Years of Ground-Based Data

Trend-Run model was performed to estimate the trend in surface temperatures recorded at 12 sites in Guinea from 1960 to 2016 and to examine the contribution of each climate forcing. The coefficient of determination (R2) calculated varies between 0.60 and 0.90, it provides total information about the simulation capability of the model. The decadal trend values also calculated show an upward trend (between 0.04 °C ± 0.06 °C decade−1 and 0.21 °C ± 0.06 °C decade−1). In addition, forcings’ contributions were quantified, and the annual oscillation (AO) contribution is higher for most of the stations, followed by semiannual oscillation (SAO). Among the forcings, the tropical Northern Atlantic (TNA) contribution is greater than that of the sunspot number (SSN), Niño3.4 and Atlantic Niño (AN). Moreover, the Mann-Kendall test revealed a positive significant trend for all stations except at the Macenta site. Additionally, with sequential Mann-Kendall test, trend turning points were found only for the stations of Mamou, Koundara and Macenta at different dates. The temperature anomalies depict warming episodes (1970s, 1980s, 1984 and 1990s). Since then, the temperature is consistently increasing over the country. A significant warming has been shown, which might be further investigated using these models with additional contributing factors

Multi-scale variability analysis of time series in Geophysics by using the empirical mode decomposition

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Climatological analysis of temperature and pluviometry in Guinea 1960-2016

International audienceThe purpose of this study is to improve the understandings on climate variability in Guinea. The methodology used is based on climatological analysis. The pluviometry and temperature data recorded at 12 meteorological stations were used. The annual variability of temperature shows the semi-annual cycle, and the interannual evolution of monthly mean temperature is characterized by an increasing trend over the years. The pluviometry values seems to indicate a decrease since 1960s, and is characterized by an annual cycle. The northward distributions of the temperature and rainfall show an increase and decrease respectively for the country

Statistical analysis of the mesospheric inversion layers over two symmetrical tropical sites: Réunion (20.8° S, 55.5° E) and Mauna Loa (19.5° N, 155.6° W)

International audienceIn this investigation a statistical analysis of the characteristics of mesospheric inversion layers (MILs) over tropical regions is presented. This study involves the analysis of 16 years of lidar observations recorded at Réunion (20.8° S, 55.5° E) and 21 years of lidar observations recorded at Mauna Loa (19.5° N, 155.6° W) together with SABER observations at these two locations. MILs appear in 10 and 9.3% of the observed temperature profiles recorded by Rayleigh lidar at Réunion and Mauna Loa, respectively. The parameters defining MILs show a semi-annual cycle over the two selected sites with maxima occurring near the equinoxes and minima occurring during the solstices. Over both sites, the maximum mean amplitude is observed in April and October, and this corresponds to a value greater than 35 K. According to lidar observations, the maximum and minimum mean of the base height ranged from 79 to 80.5 km and from 76 to 77.5 km, respectively. The MILs at Réunion appear on average 1 km thinner and 1 km lower, with an amplitude of 2K higher than Mauna Loa. Generally, the statistical results for these two tropical locations as presented in this investigation are in fairly good agreement with previous studies. When compared to lidar measurements, on average SABER observations show MILs with greater amplitude, thickness and base altitudes of 4 K, 0.75 and 1.1 km, respectively. Taking into account the temperature error by SABER in the mesosphere, it can therefore be concluded that the measurements obtained from lidar and SABER observations are in significant agreement. The frequency spectrum analysis based on the lidar profiles and the 60-day averaged profile from SABER confirms the presence of the semi-annual oscillation where the magnitude maximum is found to coincide with the height range of the temperature inversion zone. This connection between increases in the semi-annual component close to the inversion zone is in agreement with most previously reported studies over tropics based on satellite observations. Results presented in this study confirm through the use of the ground-based Rayleigh lidar at Réunion and Mauna Loa that the semi-annual oscillation contributes to the formation of MILs over the tropical region

Climatology of Guinea: Study of Climate Variability in N’zerekore

International audienceN'zerekore is a geographical region of Guinea, which houses a weather observatory located at longitude 8.8°, latitude 7.7° and altitude 475 m. This region is of major socioeconomic interest for the country. The climatological study of this region shows the variability of each parameter. The objective of this study was to analyze meteorological parameters trends and to assess the space-time evolution of some agro-climatic risks related to the main trends observed in the meteorological parameters regime of this region. In this study, programming tools were used for processing and analyzing meteorological parameters data, including temperatures, rains, wind, evaporation and storms measured in this observatory from 1931 to 2014. The interannual, annual and daily variations of these parameters were obtained, as well as temperature, precipitation anomalies and agroclimatic indexes trends. The analyzing of these variations explained that September is the rainiest months, and the year 1932, 1957 and 1970 are normal, rainy and dry year, respectively. The evaporation increased since 1971 from January to March and November to December. A positive temperature anomaly was observed since 1973 with the maximum 26-33 °C and the minimum 16-21 °C. A dominant westerly wind with a speed of 2.6 m/s was determined. Agro-climatic parameters in N'zerekore have high variability. From 1931 to 2014, three major periods can be distinguished: a wet period from 1931 to 1977, a dry period from 1978 to 1994 and rainfall variability from 1995 to 2014. The trend of these parameters explains the impact of climate change in this part of the world. This is exacerbated by human activity (deforestation), thus mitigation measures are necessary. It would be useful to extend this study throughout the country

Variability Analysis of Observational Time Series: An Overview of the Decomposition Methods for Non-stationary and Noisy Signals

International audienceThe analysis of observational data sequences in Geophysics consists of characterizing the underlying dynamics. An important preliminary step aims to analyze the variability related to the observed dynamic. The specific objectives related to this step are to remove noise, to determine the overall trend of the observational time series and to identify the relevant components contributing significantly to the original time series variability knowing that their number determines the dimensionality of the observed dynamics. Most of the observational time series have characteristics of non-stationarity and present fluctuations at all-time scales. In this context, variability analysis consists in representing time series in the time-frequency space and requires the development of specific numerical signal decomposition methods. The most commonly used techniques are adaptive and data-driven and among the most cited in the literature are the empirical mode decomposition, the empirical wavelet transform, and singular spectrum analysis. In this work, we describe all of these techniques and evaluate their ability to remove noise and to identify components corresponding to the physical processes involved in the evolution of the observed system and deduce the dimensionality of the associated dynamics. Results obtained with all of these methods on experimental total ozone columns and rainfall time series will be discussed and compared

Study on Temporal Variations of Surface Temperature and Rainfall at Conakry Airport, Guinea: 1960–2016

International audienceThe monthly averaged data time series of temperatures and rainfall without interruption of Conakry Airport (9.34 • N 13.37 • W, Guinea) from 1960 to 2016 were used. Inter-annual and annual changes in temperature and rainfall were investigated. Then, different models: Mann-Kendall Test, Multi-Linear-Regression analysis, Theil-Sen's slope estimates and wavelet analysis where used for trend analysis and the dependency with these climate forcings. Results showed an increase in temperature with semi-annual and annual cycles. A sharp and abrupt rise in the temperature in 1998 was found. The results of study have shown increasing trends for temperature (about 0.21 • /year). A decrease in rainfall (about −8.14 mm/year) is found since the end of 1960s and annual cycle with a maximum value of about 1118.3 mm recorded in August in average. The coherence between the two parameters and climate indices: El Niño 3.4, Atlantic Meridional Mode, Tropical Northern Atlantic and Atlantic Niño, were investigated. Thus, there is a clear need for increased and integrated research efforts in climate parameters variations to improve knowledge in climate change

Surface Temperature Trend Estimation over 12 Sites in Guinea Using 57 Years of Ground-Based Data

International audienceTrend-Run model was performed to estimate the trend in surface temperatures recorded at 12 sites in Guinea from 1960 to 2016 and to examine the contribution of each climate forcing. The coefficient of determination (R 2) calculated varies between 0.60 and 0.90, it provides total information about the simulation capability of the model. The decadal trend values also calculated show an upward trend (between 0.04 °C ± 0.06 °C decade −1 and 0.21 °C ± 0.06 °C decade −1). In addition, forcings' contributions were quantified, and the annual oscillation (AO) contribution is higher for most of the stations, followed by semiannual oscillation (SAO). Among the forcings, the tropical Northern Atlantic (TNA) contribution is greater than that of the sunspot number (SSN), Niño3.4 and Atlantic Niño (AN). Moreover, the Mann-Kendall test revealed a positive significant trend for all stations except at the Macenta site. Additionally, with sequential Mann-Kendall test, trend turning points were found only for the stations of Mamou, Koundara and Macenta at different dates. The temperature anomalies depict warming episodes (1970s, 1980s, 1984 and 1990s). Since then, the temperature is consistently increasing over the country. A significant warming has been shown, which might be further investigated using these models with additional contributing factors