An exploratory phenome wide association study linking asthma and liver disease genetic variants to electronic health records from the Estonian Biobank

<div><p>The Estonian Biobank, governed by the Institute of Genomics at the University of Tartu (Biobank), has stored genetic material/DNA and continuously collected data since 2002 on a total of 52,274 individuals representing ~5% of the Estonian adult population and is increasing. To explore the utility of data available in the Biobank, we conducted a phenome-wide association study (PheWAS) in two areas of interest to healthcare researchers; asthma and liver disease. We used 11 asthma and 13 liver disease-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), identified from published genome-wide association studies, to test our ability to detect established associations. We confirmed 2 asthma and 5 liver disease associated variants at nominal significance and directionally consistent with published results. We found 2 associations that were opposite to what was published before (rs4374383:AA increases risk of NASH/NAFLD, rs11597086 increases ALT level). Three SNP-diagnosis pairs passed the phenome-wide significance threshold: rs9273349 and E06 (thyroiditis, p = 5.50x10^-8); rs9273349 and E10 (type-1 diabetes, p = 2.60x10^-7); and rs2281135 and K76 (non-alcoholic liver diseases, including NAFLD, p = 4.10x10^-7). We have validated our approach and confirmed the quality of the data for these conditions. Importantly, we demonstrate that the extensive amount of genetic and medical information from the Estonian Biobank can be successfully utilized for scientific research.</p></div

Development and external validation of prediction models for adverse health outcomes in rheumatoid arthritis: A multinational real-world cohort analysis

Background: Identification of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients at high risk of adverse health outcomes remains a major challenge. We aimed to develop and validate prediction models for a variety of adverse health outcomes in RA patients initiating first-line methotrexate (MTX) monotherapy. Methods: Data from 15 claims and electronic health record databases across 9 countries were used. Models were developed and internally validated on Optum® De-identified Clinformatics® Data Mart Database using L1-regularized logistic regression to estimate the risk of adverse health outcomes within 3 months (leukopenia, pancytopenia, infection), 2 years (myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke), and 5 years (cancers [colorectal, breast, uterine] after treatment initiation. Candidate predictors included demographic variables and past medical history. Models were externally validated on all other databases. Performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) and calibration plots. Findings: Models were developed and internally validated on 21,547 RA patients and externally validated on 131,928 RA patients. Models for serious infection (AUC: internal 0.74, external ranging from 0.62 to 0.83), MI (AUC: internal 0.76, external ranging from 0.56 to 0.82), and stroke (AUC: internal 0.77, external ranging from 0.63 to 0.95), showed good discrimination and adequate calibration. Models for the other outcomes showed modest internal discrimination (AUC < 0.65) and were not externally validated. Interpretation: We developed and validated prediction models for a variety of adverse health outcomes in RA patients initiating first-line MTX monotherapy. Final models for serious infection, MI, and stroke demonstrated good performance across multiple databases and can be studied for clinical use. Funding: This activity under the European Health Data & Evidence Network (EHDEN) has received funding from the Innovative Medicines Initiative 2 Joint Undertaking under grant agreement No 806968. This Joint Undertaking receives support from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme and EFPIA