A Model of Cross-Country House Prices (228.91 KB PDF)

The widespread nature of the recent international house price boom suggests that the underlying forces behind this sustained price increase may be common across countries. Many OECD countries have, over the past decade, witnessed sustained increases in living standards while housing affordability has further improved in recent years with the low interest rate environment experienced by many of these countries. In this paper we propose a theoretical model of house price determination that is driven by changes in income and interest rates. In particular, the current level of income and interest rates determine how much an individual can borrow from financial institutions to purchase housing and ultimately this is a key driver of house prices. The model is applied to a panel of 16 OECD countries from 1980 to 2005 using both single country-by-country and panel econometric approaches. Our results support the existence of a long-run relationship between actual house prices and the amount individuals can borrow and we find plausible and statistically significant adjustment, across countries, to this long run equilibrium.

Identifying and Forecasting House Price Dynamics in Ireland

While increased attention has, of late, focussed on models of house prices, few,if any, studies have examined house prices from a purely forecasting perspective. However, the need for accurate and timely forecasts of house prices has grown as the rate of house price inflation is more and more important to policy discussions such as those governing decisions on inflation. This is further underscored with the development of financial markets products based on houseprice index. In this paper, we propose that a simple univariate moving average (MA) model can provide optimal forecasts of Irish house price inflation when compared with a suite of standard forecasting and structural house price models. This result echoes similar recent findings for forecasts of US inflation rate.

Quantifying Revenue Windfalls from the Irish Housing Market

The speed and severity of the decline in the Irish fiscal position in recent years raises a number of important issues regarding the assessment of fiscal policy within the EU. From a position of relative strength, with large surpluses and low debt to GDP ratio, the Irish public finances have rapidly deteriorated, culminating in an Excessive Deficit Procedure being launched in early 2009. In hindsight, it is evident that tax revenues were on an unsustainable path in recent years due, in large part, to structural imbalances within the economy, mainly associated with the housing market. The excess growth in the latter culminated in large and transitory tax revenue windfalls, which ultimately proved unsustainable. These windfalls contributed to large general government and cyclically adjusted budget surpluses. This paper seeks to quantify the windfall gains associated with property taxes through modelling housing related tax receipts over the period 2002 to 2009. From this, estimates are derived as to the underlying or property adjusted fiscal position, which is found in various years, to have diverged greatly from actual outturns.

Estimating the Structural Demand for Irish Housing

After 10 years of unprecedented increases in both prices and activity levels, the Irish housing market appears to be entering a period of some uncertainty. In the early part of 2007, Irish house prices, for the first time in recent history, experienced negative growth rates - leading indicators within the housing sector would suggest that house building is already beginning to contract, with future levels expected to be somewhat below the record level of construction in 2006. The sustained increase in housing construction prompted by the rapid increase in prices has resulted in the Irish construction sector assuming a position of considerable importance within the overall economy. Arguably, any significant slowdown in housing activity could have far-reaching domestic consequences. In this paper, we use a recently developed model of the housing sector to gauge what the structural level of demand is for Irish housing.

Modelling Credit in the Irish Mortgage Market

The sharp decline in the performance of international property markets has been central to the financial distress experienced globally. The Irish housing market experienced particularly strong rates of price increases and heightened activity levels by OECD standards. One reason cited for such large price increases has been the significant degree of financial liberalisation experienced by Irish credit institutions. The culmination ofmuch of this liberalisation resulted in large increases in the availability of mortgage credit. In this paper we apply a recently developed model of mortgage credit and examine the implications for Irish house prices of changes in lending patterns. Our results suggest that post 2003, a significant amount of the increase in Irish prices was determined by innovative developments in international finance, which enabled Irish institutions, in particular, to secure alternative sources of lending funds.

A Model of Mortgage Credit

The emergence and proliferation of the international financial crisis since mid-2007 has, amongst other issues, refocussed attention on the interrelationship between mortgage credit availability and house prices. A growing body of opinion is now of the view that the increase in credit availability internationally was a primary contributor to the rate of house price increases witnessed in many OECD countries over the past 10 years. House price growth in the UK over this period was to the fore of that experienced across countries, while the Anglo- Saxon system of banking was characterised by a significant degree of financial innovation yielding greater credit provision. In this paper we propose a simple intuitive model, which seeks to quantify the impact of credit market disequilibrium on UK house prices over the period 1992 - 2008.

The socio-economic interactions of marine renewable energy development and the commercial fishing industry on the island of Ireland

The global increase in energy demand and the need to reduce carbon emissions necessitates the use of alternative sources of energy such as marine renewable energy (MRE). For the purpose of this thesis, MRE refers to offshore wind, tidal and wave energy. The island of Ireland, comprising the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, has a significant marine energy resource and policies are in place to maximise the potential for MRE development. As the offshore wind sector expands and tidal and wave energy moves towards commercialisation, these will have an impact on existing sectors and traditional users of Ireland’s marine resources. Commercial fishermen are arguably the stakeholder group most likely to be directly impacted by the development of MRE projects. For Ireland, fishing remains an important sector for coastal communities in terms of employment and income. The development of MRE could potentially result in loss of access to fishing grounds which would have socio-economic implications for fishermen. Spatial conflicts and the opposition of fishermen to projects, could hinder the development of the MRE sector in Ireland. The successful development of the sector will depend to a considerable extent on the ability of both sectors to co-exist and the acceptance of projects by fishermen. As such, mitigation planning is important. However, studies on the socio-economic interactions of MRE and commercial fishing are rare. This thesis aims to address this gap and to provide recommendations to enable the development of the MRE sector in Ireland sustainability with the existing and established commercial fishing sector. This thesis consists of three case studies involving MRE projects around the island of Ireland at various stages of planning and development. A mixed methods approach, which consisted of a survey and follow-up interview, was used to gather quantitative and qualitative data on the attitudes and experiences of fishermen at the case study sites. In total, 104 complete surveys were conducted with fishermen located at ports in the vicinity of the case study sites and 14 of these fishermen were subsequently interviewed. In addition, fisheries liaison officers from MRE projects in the UK were also interviewed regarding their experiences on these projects. The research findings from the case studies are presented in three peer-reviewed journal articles reproduced in this thesis. Firstly, in order to reduce the risk of spatial conflict and to enable decision-making based on the co-existence of the two sectors, a better understanding of the attitudes of fishermen towards the development of MRE projects in their locality was required. A survey was designed to provide quantitative information on fishermen’s attitudes to MRE, perceived opportunities and impacts associated with MRE, and suggestions for mitigation. Of the fishermen surveyed, 40% agreed that it is important to develop MRE in their locality. A further 15% were neutral on this matter. It is encouraging for developers and policy makers that the majority of respondents (70%) were of the opinion that fisheries and MRE projects can co-exist. Alternative employment was the most cited opportunity. The loss of access to traditional fishing grounds, and the associated loss of income, was a concern for the majority (79%) of fishermen. The main mitigation options suggested were more effective consultation, location of developments on non-fishing grounds and financial compensation. Effective consultation and stakeholder engagement that enables participation in decision-making is crucial to enhancing acceptance of MRE projects among fishermen. There is agreement among experts in the field that despite its importance, the consultation process is not effective and is often carried out from the top down with little opportunity for real participation. Data gathered from the survey and interviews was analysed to examine the experiences of fishermen on their level of involvement in consultations and decision-making on the case study projects. Just over half (56%) of the fishermen surveyed felt that they had been involved in consultations, while only 22% felt that they had been involved in decisions made on the projects. For many, the consultation process was seen as a “box-ticking exercise” carried out in order to advance the project. This study highlights the fact that fishermen feel that there is currently little opportunity for fishermen to participate in decision-making on MRE projects. The study found that the use of participatory mapping tools in the selection of sites for MRE development provides an opportunity for fishermen to influence decisions. Input from fishermen in the design and implementation of maritime spatial plans could also help to provide clarity and transparency over how trade-offs in the use of sea space are dealt with. Benefit schemes and financial compensation measures for fishermen who may be impacted by the development of MRE projects were also examined as potential mitigation options. Benefit schemes refer to additional voluntary measures that are provided by a developer to local stakeholders. This part of the research was based on the interviews conducted with fishermen and fisheries liaison officers. Analysis of the interviews found that there was uncertainty among fishermen over whether they would benefit from MRE. There was agreement between fishermen and the fisheries liaison officers on the provision of an evidence base for the calculation of disruption payments. Furthermore, a formal structure for the provision of benefits schemes for fishermen would be useful. Finally, a basic model was developed to calculate the potential compensation to be paid to fishermen who may be impacted by the development of MRE projects. The calculator can be used by developers for budgetary planning and to estimate the impact that the payment of compensation would have on expenditure.

Science and Hurling: A Review

Hurling is one of the world’s fastest field sports. Since the last review of science and Gaelic sports in 2008, there has been an increase in sports science provisions across elite and sub-elite cohorts, resulting in increased hurling-specific literature equating to an additional 111 research investigations into the game across all sports science disciplines. The present review aims to provide an updated analysis of the current research on the game and propose recommendations for future research. Overall, intermittent aerobic fitness remains an important physical quality during competition, with a focus on games-based training methodologies within the literature. Within the current review, we provide updated normative data on the running demands, physiological responses, and anthropometric and performance profiles of hurling players. The increased literature across the sport has led to the development of a hurling-specific simulation, that can now be utilised practically in training and research processes for hurling cohorts. Furthermore, the monitoring of internal and external training loads across training and match environments, in addition to response variables such as well-being, appears to have become more prominent, allowing practitioners to design training regimes to achieve optimal dose and response characteristics. Analysing the game from a scientific perspective can allow for more efficient preparatory practices, to meet the specific requirements of players at all age levels. Collaborative research among the various sports science disciplines, is required to identify strategies to reduce the incidence of injury and enhance performance in hurling. The current review provides updated information to coaches and practitioners regarding positionspecific physical qualities, and match-play demands that can concurrently support the training process within hurling

Does endurance fatigue increase the risk of injury when performing drop jumps?

Although from an athletic performance perspective it may be beneficial to undertake drop jump training when fatigued (principle of "specificity" of training), such endur-ance fatigue may expose the body to a greater risk of injury if it causes an increase in peak impact accelerations. This study aimed to determine if endurance fatigue resulted in an increase in tibial peak impact acceleration and an associated change in knee kinematics when completing plyometric drop jumps. Fifteen females performed drop jumps from 3 heights (15, 30, and 45 cm) when fatigued and nonfatigued. Treadmill running was used to induce endurance fatigue. The following variables were assessed: tibial peak impact acceleration, knee angle at initial ground contact, maximum angle of flexion, range of flexion, and peak knee angular velocity. Fatigue resulted in significantly greater (p < 0.05) tibial peak impact acceleration and knee flexion peak angular velocity in drop jumps from 15 and 30 cm, but not from 45 cm. Fatigue had no effect on any of the knee angles assessed. The neuromuscular system was affected negatively by endurance fatigue at 15 and 30 cm, indicating that coaches should be aware of a potential increased risk of injury in performing drop jumps when fatigued. Because from the greater drop height of 45 cm the neuromuscular system had a reduced capacity to attenuate the impact accelerations per se, whether nonfatigued or fatigued, this would suggest that this height may have been too great for the athletes examined

Updated Dissemination and Exploitation Plan

Dissemination of project’s results and engagement with stakeholders towards a sustained results’ exploitation are intrinsically evolving. The vision of the project’s dissemination at the start of it should evolve as the activities progress. This plan presents an update on the EuroSea dissemination plans as seen a year after the kick-off