ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE FOR WORLD AGRICULTURE

This paper challenges the hypothesis that negative yield effects in key temperate grain producing regions of the world resulting from global climate change would have a serious impact on world food production. Model results demonstrate that even with concurrent productivity losses in the major grain producing regions of the world, global warming will not seriously disrupt world agricultural markets. Country/regional crop yield changes induce interregional adjustments in production and consumption that serve to buffer the severity of climate change impacts on world agriculture and result in relatively modest impacts on world agricultural prices and domestic economies.Environmental Economics and Policy,

Comparison of accelerometer measured levels of physical activity and sedentary time between obese and non-obese children and adolescents: a systematic review

Background: Obesity has been hypothesized to be associated with reduced moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and increased sedentary time (ST). It is important to assess whether, and the extent to which, levels of MVPA and ST are suboptimal among children and adolescents with obesity. The primary objective of this study was to examine accelerometer-measured time spent in MVPA and ST of children and adolescents with obesity, compared with MVPA recommendations, and with non-obese peers. Methods: An extensive search was carried out in Medline, Cochrane library, EMBASE, SPORTDiscus, and CINAHL, from 2000 to 2015. Study selection and appraisal: studies with accelerometer-measured MVPA and/or ST (at least 3 days and 6 h/day) in free-living obese children and adolescents (0 to 19 years) were included. Study quality was assessed formally. Meta-analyses were planned for all outcomes but were precluded due to the high levels of heterogeneity across studies. Therefore, narrative syntheses were employed for all the outcomes. Results: Out of 1503 records, 26 studies were eligible (n = 14,739 participants; n = 3523 with obesity); 6/26 studies involved children aged 0 to 9 years and 18/26 involved adolescents aged 10.1 to19 years. In the participants with obesity, the time spent in MVPA was consistently below the recommended 60 min/day and ST was generally high regardless of the participant’s age and gender. Comparison with controls suggested that the time spent in MVPA was significantly lower in children and adolescents with obesity, though differences were relatively small. Levels of MVPA in the obese and non-obese were consistently below recommendations. There were no marked differences in ST between obese and non-obese peers. Conclusions: MVPA in children and adolescents with obesity tends to be well below international recommendations. Substantial effort is likely to be required to achieve the recommended levels of MVPA among obese individuals in obesity treatment interventions

Technology and Technical Change in the MIT EPPA Model

Abstract in HTML and technical report in PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/).Potential technology change has a strong influence on projections of greenhouse gas emissions and costs of control, and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are a common device for studying these phenomena. Using the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model as an example, two ways of representing technology in these models are discussed: the sector-level description of production possibilities founded on social accounting matrices and elasticity estimates, and sub-models of specific supply or end-use devices based on engineering-process data. A distinction is made between exogenous and endogenous technical change, and it is shown how, because of model structure and the origin of key parameters, such models naturally include shifts in production process that reflect some degree of endogenous technical change. As a result, the introduction of explicit endogenous relations should be approached with caution, to avoid double counting.The CGE model underlying this analysis was supported by the US Department of Energy, Office of Biological and Environmental Research [BER] (DE-FG02-94ER61937), the US Environmental Protection Agency (X-827703-01-0), the Electric Power Research Institute, and by a consortium of industry and foundation sponsor

Early intervention for relapse in schizophrenia: results of a 12-month randomized controlled trial of cognitive behavioural therapy

Background. The paper describes a randomized controlled trial of targeting cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) during prodromal or early signs of relapse in schizophrenia. We hypothesized that CBT would result in reduced admission and relapse, reduced positive and negative symptoms, and improved social functioning. Method. A total of 144 participants with schizophrenia or a related disorder were randomized to receive either treatment as usual (TAU) (N=72) or CBT+TAU (N=72). Participants were prospectively followed up between entry and 12 months. Results. At 12 months, 11 (15.3%) participants in the CBT group were admitted to hospital compared to 19 (26.4%) of the TAU group (hazard ratio=0.53, P=0.10, 95% CI 0.25, 1.10). A total of 13 (18.1%) participants in CBT relapsed compared to 25 (34.7%) in TAU (hazard ratio=0.47,

Comparison of accelerometer measured levels of physical activity and sedentary time between obese and non-obese children and adolescents : a systematic review

Background: Obesity has been hypothesized to be associated with reduced moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and increased sedentary time (ST). It is important to assess whether, and the extent to which, levels of MVPA and ST are suboptimal among children and adolescents with obesity. The primary objective of this study was to examine accelerometer-measured time spent in MVPA and ST of children and adolescents with obesity, compared with MVPA recommendations, and with non-obese peers. Method: An extensive search was carried out in Medline, Cochrane library, EMBASE, SPORTDiscus, and CINAHL, from 2000-2015. Study selection and appraisal: studies with accelerometer-measured MVPA and/or ST (at least 3 days and 6 hours/day) in free-living obese children and adolescents (0-19 years) were included. Study quality was assessed formally. Meta-analyses were planned for all outcomes but were precluded due to the high levels of heterogeneity across studies. Therefore, narrative syntheses were employed for all the outcomes. Results: Out of 1503 records, 26 studies were eligible with a total (n =14739 participants; n =3523 with obesity); 6/26 studies involved children aged 0-9 years and 18/26 involved adolescents aged 10.1-19 years. In the participants with obesity, the time spent in MVPA was consistently below the recommended 60 minutes/day and ST was generally high regardless of the participant’s age and gender. Comparison with controls suggested that the time spent in MVPA was significantly lower in children and adolescents with obesity, though differences were relatively small. Levels of MVPA in the obese and non-obese were consistently below recommendations. There were no marked differences in ST between obese and non-obese peers. Conclusions: MVPA in children and adolescents with obesity tends to be well below international recommendations. Substantial effort is likely to be required to achieve the recommended levels of MVPA among obese individuals in obesity treatment interventions

Validity, practical utility, and reliability of the activPAL in preschool children

<p>Purpose: With the increasing global prevalence of childhood obesity, it is important to have appropriate measurement tools for investigating factors (e.g. sedentary time) contributing to positive energy balance in early childhood. For pre-school children, single unit monitors such as the activPALTM are promising. However, validation is required as activity patterns differ from adults.</p> <p>Methods: Thirty pre-school children participated in a validation study. Children were videoed for one hour undertaking usual nursery activity while wearing an activPALTM. Video (criterion method) was analyzed on a second-by-second basis to categorise posture and activity. This was compared with the corresponding activPALTM output. In a subsequent sub-study investigating practical utility and reliability, 20 children wore an activPALTM for seven consecutive 24-hour periods.</p> <p>Results: A total of 97,750 seconds of direct observation from 30 children were categorized as sit/lie (46%), stand (35%), walk (16%); with 3% of time in nonsit/lie/upright postures (e.g. crawl/crouch/kneel-up). Sensitivity for the overall total time matched seconds detected as activPALTM ‘sit/lie’ was 86.7%, specificity 97.1%, and positive predictive value (PPV) 96.3%. For individual children, the median (interquartile range) sensitivity for activPALTM sit/lie was 92.8% (76.1-97.4), specificity 97.3% (94.9-99.2), PPV 97.0% (91.5-99.1). The activPALTM underestimated total time spent sitting (mean difference -4.4%, p<0.01), and overestimated time standing (mean difference 7.1%, p<0.01). There was no difference in overall % time categorised as ‘walk’ (p=0.2). The monitors were well tolerated by children during a seven day period of free-living activity. In the reliability study, at least five days of monitoring were required to obtain an intraclass correlation coefficient of ≥0.8 for time spent sit/lie according to activPALTM output.</p> <p>Conclusion: The activPAL had acceptable validity, practical utility, and reliability for the measurement of posture and activity during freeliving activities in pre-school children.</p&gt

Differing commissioning arrangements may contribute to geographic variation in clinical management of digital ulcers in systemic sclerosis

Phosphodiesterase inhibitors (such as sildenafil) and endothelin receptor antagonist, bosentan, are effective for digital ulcer disease in systemic sclerosis (SSc-DU) and are endorsed in international treatment recommendations. Commissioning of high-cost drugs, such as bosentan, however, differs across devolved nations of the UK. We report a multicentre service evaluation project to examine ‘real world’ management of SSc-DU before and following the 2015 UK Scleroderma Study Group (UKSSG) guidance, across southwest (SW) England and Wales. Results showed that iloprost and sildenafil use for SSc-DU was higher in patients in Wales prior to 2015. Between 2015–2017, sildenafil use for SSc-DU increased in SW England while remaining stable in Wales. Bosentan use for SSc-DU after 2015 in SW England increased, while remaining stable and proportionately lower in Wales. These findings demonstrate that differing commissioning guidance across devolved nations of the UK seems to contribute to geographic variation in patient care.</p

Adequacy of milk intake during exclusive breastfeeding : a longitudinal study

Mean intakes of human milk provide sufficient energy and protein to meet mean requirements during the first 6 months of infancy. Since infant growth potential drives milk production, the distribution of intakes likely matches the distribution of energy and protein requirements. This longitudinal study describes the adequacy of milk intake during exclusive breastfeeding

The MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) Model: Version 4

Abstract in HTML and technical report in PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/).The Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model is the part of the MIT Integrated Global Systems Model (IGSM) that represents the human systems. EPPA is a recursive-dynamic multi-regional general equilibrium model of the world economy, which is built on the GTAP dataset and additional data for the greenhouse gas and urban gas emissions. It is designed to develop projections of economic growth and anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse related gases and aerosols. The main purpose of this report is to provide documentation of a new version of EPPA, EPPA version 4. In comparison with EPPA3, it includes greater regional and sectoral detail, a wider range of advanced energy supply technologies, improved capability to represent a variety of different and more realistic climate policies, and enhanced treatment of physical stocks and flows of energy, emissions, and land use to facilitate linkage with the earth system components of the IGSM. Reconsideration of important parameters and assumptions led to some revisions in reference projections of GDP and greenhouse gas emissions. In EPPA4 the global economy grows by 12.5 times from 2000 to 2100 (2.5% per year) compared with an increase of 10.7 times (2.4% per year) in EPPA3. This is one of the important revisions that led to an increase in CO2 emissions to 25.7 GtC in 2100, up from 23 GtC in 2100 projected by EPPA3. There is considerable uncertainty in such projections because of uncertainty in various driving forces. To illustrate this uncertainty we consider scenarios where the global GDP grows 0.5% faster (slower) than the reference rate, and these scenarios result in CO2 emissions in 2100 of 34 (17) GtC. A sample greenhouse gas policy scenario that puts the world economy on a path toward stabilization of atmospheric CO2 at 550 ppmv is also simulated to illustrate the response of EPPA4 to a policy constraint.This research was supported by the U.S Department of Energy, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, U.S. National Science Foundation, U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, U.S. National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration; and the Industry and Foundation Sponsors of the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change: Alstom Power (France), American Electric Power (USA), BP p.l.c. (UK/USA), Chevron Corporation (USA), CONCAWE (Belgium), DaimlerChrysler AG (Germany), Duke Energy (USA), J-Power (Japan), Electric Power Research Institute (USA), Electricité de France, ExxonMobil Corporation (USA), Ford Motor Company (USA), General Motors (USA), Murphy Oil Corporation (USA), Oglethorpe Power Corporation (USA), RWE Power (Germany), Shell Petroleum (Netherlands/UK), Southern Company (USA), Statoil ASA (Norway), Tennessee Valley Authority (USA), Tokyo Electric Power Company (Japan), Total (France), G. Unger Vetlesen Foundation (USA)