Forecasting inflation: An art as well as a science!

In this study we build two forecasting models to predict inflation for the Netherlands and for the euro area. Inflation is the yearly change of the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP). The models provide point forecasts and prediction intervals for both the components of the HICP and the aggregated HICP-index itself. Both models are small-scale linear time series models allowing for long run equilibrium relationships between HICP components and other variables, notably the hourly wage rate and the import or producer prices. The model for the Netherlands is used to generate the Dutch inflation projections over a horizon of 11-15 months ahead for the eurosystem’s Narrow Inflation Projection Exercise (NIPE). The recursive forecast errors for several forecast horizons are evaluated for all models, and are found to outperform a naive forecast and optimal AR models. Moreover, the same result holds for the Dutch NIPE projections, which have been provided quarterly since 1999. The direct and aggregation methods to predict total HICP inflation perform about equally goodmodel selection, time series models, aggregation

Quasi-Constitutional Change Without Intent—a Response to Richard Albert

In response to Richard Albert’s Quasi-Constitutional Amendments, 65 BUFF. L. REV. 739 (2017)

An analysis of priority of reported cases from the public on the County Administrative Board in Sweden

Jordbruksverket, the Swedish Board of Agriculture, are the ones that establish the legislation for animals beyond the Swedish Animal Welfare Act and Ordinance. The County Administrative Board (Länsstyrelsen) is the authority that ensures that animal keepers comply with the legislation. They receive reports from the public that alert them about animal keepers who are not complying with the legislation and treat the animal poorly. Together the Swedish Board of Agriculture and the County Administrative Boards have set a goal where a maximum of 25% of all reported cases where controls have been carried out shall be unjustified. Under the year 2019 it was only two out of 21 County Administrative Boards that achieved that goal. This study aims to investigate the reason why so many County Administrative Boards did not achieve this goal. The method that was used was to ask three different County Administrative Boards (Kalmar, Stockholm and Västmanland) questions about how they are working with reported cases, what information is important and how they prioritize the cases. Fifteen reported cases from each County Administrative Board were examined. The results from this study shows that the County Administrative Board in Stockholm had 15% reported cases that were unjustified, Kalmar had 41% and Västmanland had 47%. Both Kalmar and Västmanland had insufficient information from the public in their reports that could have been important for how the cases were concluded. The County Administrative Board in Stockholm have produced their own form that they use and write down all the information from the informer. More than half of the reported cases about animalsthat have not been treated according to the legislation was from anonymous people. One reason to why there was so many reported cases from anonymous informers that were unjustified can be because of conflicts between the informer and the animal keeper. The clearest reason why Kalmar and Västmanland had more unjustified reported cases than Stockholm is that they are not as accurate and do not have as detailed information from the public in their reports as Stockholm. One other thing that was discussed in this study was if it could be some risk with having a goal like this. The answer to that question is that if the County Administrative Boards work hard with getting all important information in their reports, no reported cases where animals are suffering will be unprioritized. The conclusion of this study is that all the County Administrative Boards in Sweden should use a form like the one Stockholm uses to make sure that all the important information is included in the report. And that they must work harder with getting all the important information and all the details that are necessary and be more accurate in the prioritizing

MOSES: Model of Swedish Economic Studies

MOSES is an aggregate econometric model for Sweden, estimated on quarterly data, and intended for short-term forecasting and policy simulations. After a presentation of qualitative model properties, the econometric methodology is summarized. The model properties, within sample simulations, and examples of dynamic simulation (model forecasts) for the period 2009q2-2012q4 are presented. We address practical issues relating to operational use and maintenance of a macro model of this type. The detailed econometric equations are reported in an appendix.

Perceptions of sexuality and gendered sexual roles among students at a South African university : exploring heteronormativity on campus

The aim of this paper is to investigate the extent to which university students are likely to hold heteronormative and normative gendered views. Data was obtained through a quantitative survey. A total of 1214 undergraduate students were interviewed in an urban university in South Africa. Low levels of homophobia were reported, with women being more accepting towards homosexuality. It was found that heteronormative (possible heterosexist) views are at play when asked whether homosexuality should be portrayed positively on campus, which raises questions of heterosexual privilege. While students are generally willing to interact with homosexual students, they have an aversion towards same-sex relationships being given a positive, and perhaps equal, status to heterosexual relationships. Religion and family are the most influential factors which shape the views of the respondents. Findings suggest marked differences in the views of religious and non-religious students with regard to gender norms and acceptance of homosexuality. Fields of study appear to be a significant determinant of students’ views on sexual and gendered norms. Ultimately, the paper is explorative in nature, and starts to address a phenomenon that is under-researched within this context

The Appleization of finance: Charting incumbent finance’s embrace of FinTech

The rise of financial technology (FinTech) engenders novel business models through integrating financial services and information and communication technologies (ICT). Digital currencies and payments, data mining, and other FinTech applications threaten to radically overhaul the financial sector. This article argues that, while we are becoming aware of how technology giants such as Apple Inc. are making inroads into financial services, we need to become more sensitive to how financial incumbents mimick ICT firms while aiming to neutralize the FinTech challenge. Practices from Silicon Valley are spilling over into ‘traditional’ finance through a process we dub Appleization. We illustrate how incumbents aim to remain indispensable amidst rapid digitization. Mimicking tech strategies, financial incumbents resort to transforming legacy ICT systems into integrated platforms, cultivating entrepreneurial ecosystems where startups are ‘free’ to compete whilst effectively being locked into the incumbent's orbit. We illustrate this by comparing Apple’s business features (locking-in developers, customers and state into a hybrid business model based on a synergy between hardware, software and data-driven platform components) with emerging practices in the financial industry. Our analogy suggests that the Appleization of finance might radically transform, yet not undercut the oligopolistic position of financial incumbents