The double insult: explaining gender differences in the psychological consequences of war

Although women have been shown to be at higher mental health risk following the experience of extreme events in war, this phenomenon is not fully understood. In the present study, we investigate the role of gender norms in determining the interpretation of events and the degree of social support given to victims. Thirty-eight survivors from the Kosovo conflict in 1999 were interviewed and data was analyzed using thematic and content analysis. The findings suggest that events which are seen as affirming gender norms (such as men who were injured in fighting the enemy) evoke pride in the victim and support from the community whereas events that are seen as undermining gender norms (such as women who are sexually assaulted) evoke shame in the victim and rejection by the community. Women, we suggest, are psychologically vulnerable both because they are more likely than men to experience identity undermining events and also because the consequences of such events are more severe for women than men

The aggregate effects of long run sectoral reallocation

The construction bust which accompanied the Great Recession, and the accompanying need to shift workers across sectors, have provoked a discussion about mismatch and the Beveridge Curve, alongside a discussion about firm-level dispersion. These discussions echo an ongoing discussion about the effects of long run sectoral reallocation. Based on estimates from a large state space model over a long sample for the United States, long run sectoral reallocation does not appear to be systematically related to movements in the Beveridge Curve, although reallocation does appear to be countercyclical and related to falls in the trend employment-population ratio. The recent shift in the Beveridge Curve during the Great Recession is unusual in this respect. An analysis of historical patterns reveals a handful of additional reallocative episodes, with large episodes occurring during the mid-1970s and early 2000s recessions, in addition to during the Great Recession. In addition, these episodes appear to be related to other dispersion shocks which have been increasingly discussed in the literature

Matching labor's share in a search and matching model

In the United States, labor’s share of income falls after a positive disturbance to productivity growth or inflation, and it remains low for some time. Previous researchers have argued that the negative relationship between productivity growth and labor’s share is puzzling. I argue otherwise. A search and matching model with infrequently bargained nominal wages would predict the observed behavior of labor’s share after a productivity disturbance, and it also predicts the observed behavior of labor’s share after an inflationary disturbance. Wages at the macroeconomic level seem to be sticky in a way which is consistent with microeconomic evidence; much of the ongoing discussion about the real effects of sticky wages seems to be well-motivated, while sticky price models fail to match the data

The Department of Energy’s contribution to the president’s bioproduct and bioenergy initiative

Multiple opportunities exist for energy production from renewable sources such as wind and solar power. Currently, there are also active solicitations to apply to the Department of Energy(DoE) for grants to work on biobased products, co-firing research, analytical tools, and biorefineries. The DoE has increasing interest in working with state universities and land-grant colleges in this area. There are great opportunities for research into bioenergy and biobased products as well as increasing market interest

Fiscal Taylor rules in the postwar United States

Recent research and events have brought fiscal policy back into the spotlight. Fiscal Taylor rules and error correction models have represented two different ways of quantifying the feedbacks from fiscal and economic conditions to fiscal policy decisions. This paper synthesizes these two ideas, estimating a fiscal Taylor rule as a special case of an error correction model. Using quarterly postwar U.S. data, estimates of a fiscal Taylor rule find that the government sector has sought to stabilize its debt through adjustments to purchases and taxes, in that order, with very little stabilization coming through adjustments to transfer payments. Since 1981, the debt-stabilization motive has almost vanished, while the cyclical behavior of fiscal variables has not changed. This provides indirect evidence that fiscal policy may have become "non-Ricardian" in the US during recent decades

A note on the identification of dynamic economic models with generalized shock processes

DSGE models with generalized shock processes have been a major area of research in recent years. In this paper, I show that the structural parameters governing DSGE models are not identified when the driving process behind the model follows an unrestricted VAR. This finding implies that parameter estimates derived from recent attempts to estimate DSGE models with generalized driving processes should be treated with caution, and that there exists a tradeoff between identification and the risk of model misspecification

A tale of two countries: A comparison of the aggregate effects of sectoral reallocation in the United States and Germany

This paper compares the aggregate effects of sectoral reallocation in the United States and Western Germany using a stochastic volatility model of sectoral employment growth. Reallocative shocks have no effect on the natural rate of unemployment in either country, and there is mild evidence that reallocative shocks are contractionary over the cycle. The overall statistical contribution of such shocks to the cycle, however, is limited. Reallocative shocks do not appear to be to blame for the rise in trend unemployment in Germany in the 1980s or for a possible rise in trend unemployment in the United States following the Great Recession

A set of estimated fiscal rules for a cross section of countries: Stabilization and consolidation through which instruments?

This paper provides a set of detailed estimated fiscal reaction functions for a panel of twenty industrialized countries, and it discusses commonalities and differences with regard to systematic fiscal policies across countries. In general, the countries in the panel adjust tax revenues strongly in response to the public debt, and they adjust tax revenues and transfer payments, but, interestingly, not tax rates, strongly in response to output fluctuations. Some countries such as Germany appear to adjust government consumption and investment relatively strongly in response to the public debt, while the United States adjusts capital tax rates relatively strongly. In general, an increased emphasis in the theoretical literature on the effects of procyclical tax revenues and countercyclical transfer payments as automatic stabilizers may be warranted

Primary surplus and debt projections based on estimated fiscal reaction functions for euro area countries

We project the path of the public debt and primary surpluses for a number of countries in the euro area under a fiscal rule based on a set of estimated fiscal policy reaction functions. Our fiscal rule represents a fiscal analogue to a well-known monetary policy rule, and it is calibrated using country-specific as well as euro area-wide parameter estimates. We then forecast the dynamics of the fiscal aggregates under different convergence, growth, and interest rate scenarios and investigate the implications of these scenarios in projecting the future path of fiscal aggregates. We argue that our forecasting methodology may be used to deliver insights into the medium-run effects of different fiscal policy rules and to provide some early warning of future fiscal pressures