Estimates of eligibility for antiretroviral treatment (ART) and projected ART impact on AIDS mortality among South African educators

The study assessed the proportion of HIV-infected educators that need antiretroviral treatment (ART) according to current criteria, and estimated the impact of ART on AIDS mortality by modelling scenarios with and without access to ART. Specimens for HIV testing were obtained from 17 088 educators and a sub-sample of 444 venous blood specimens from HIV-positive educators was selected for a CD4 cell count analysis.The Spectrum model package was used for estimating AIDS-associated mortality and projecting the impact of ART scenarios.The results of the CD4 cell count analysis in the HIV-positive educator study population showed that 8% had fewer than 100, 22% fewer than 200, 52% fewer than 350, and 72% fewer than 500 CD4 cells/mm3. Based on the proportion of HIV-positive educators with a CD4 cell count < 200 cells/mm3 we estimated that in 2005 approximately 10 700 educators would need ART according to current SA government guidelines. For the baseline scenario without ART the number of AIDS deaths among HIV-infected educators was projected to increase from 1 992 deaths in 2000 to 5 260 in 2010.The number of projected AIDS deaths in the educator study population was estimated to be 4 414 in 2005, with almost 50% of the AIDS deaths occurring in the 35 - 44 age group.The estimates suggest that in 2005 9.1% of the HIV-infected educators, or 1.2% of the total educator population, will be dying of AIDS. By 2010, a reduction of almost 50% in AIDS deaths was estimated for the treatment scenario with 90% ART coverage, compared with the baseline scenario without treatment. The ART impact scenarios illustrate that a relatively high ART coverage would be needed to ensure a substantial impact of ART on HIV/AIDS-associated mortality.Keywords: antiretroviral treatment, CD4 cell counts,AIDS mortality, impact modelingRésuméCette étude a évalué la proportion des enseignants séropositifs qui ont besoin du traitement antirétroviral (ART) selon les critères actuels. De plus, l'étude a fait une prévision de l'impact d'ART sur la mortalité due au SIDA en présentant deux scénarios: les patients avec accès au ART et ceux sans accès. Les spécimens des essais du VIH ont été obtenu de 17 088 enseignants. En autre, avec le but de faire des analyses des comptes des cellules CD4, un sous-échantillon de 444 spécimens de sang veineux fut obtenu des enseignants séropositifs. L'ensemble de modèles Spectrum a été employé afin de faire des prévisions de mortalité liée au SIDA et aussi pour faire une projection de l'impact des scénarios d'ART. Les résultats des analyses des comptes des cellules CD4 d'une étude de population auprès des enseignants séropositifs ont montré que 8% avaient une charge virale en dessous de 100, 22% moins de 200, 52% moins de 350 et 72% moins de 500 CD4 cellules/mm3 respectivement. Etant donné la proportion des enseignants séropositifs ayant un compte des cellules CD4 moins de 200 cellules/mm3, nous avons prévu qu'en 2005 approximativement 10 700 enseignants auraient besoin d'ART suivant les directives actuelles du gouvernement sud-africain. Pour le scénario de référence sans l'ART, le taux de morts parmi les enseignants séropositifs fut prévu d'augmenter de 1 992 morts en 2000 à 5 260 morts en 2010. Le taux de morts de SIDA projeté dans l'étude de population auprès des enseignants fut prévu d'augmenter à 4 414 en 2005 avec environ 50% de morts de SIDA appartenant au groupe âgé de 35 à 44 ans. Les pronostiques suggèrent qu'en 2005, 9.1% des enseignants séropositifs, ou 1.2% de l'ensemble de la population enseignante, mourront de SIDA. D'ici 2010, une baisse d'environ 50% de morts de SIDA est prévue pour les scénarios sur traitement, avec une provision de 90% d'ART en comparaison au scénario de référence sans traitement. Les scénarios de l'impact d'ART démontrent qu'une provision relativement élevée d'ART serait nécessaire afin d'assurer un impact considérable d'ART sur la mortalité liée au VIH/SIDA.Mots clés: traitement antirétroviral, comptes des cellules CD4, mortalité de SIDA, modeler l'impact SAHARA J (Journal of Social Aspects of HIV/AIDS Research Alliance) Vol. 2(3) 2005: 300-31

Sexual behaviour patterns in South Africa and their association with the spread of HIV: insights from a mathematical model

This paper aims to quantify the effects of different types of sexual risk behaviour on the spread of HIV in South Africa. A mathematical model is developed to simulate changes in numbers of sexual partners, changes in marital status, changes in commercial sex activity and changes in the frequency of unprotected sex over the life course. This is extended to allow for the transmission of HIV, and the model is fitted to South African HIV prevalence data and sexual behaviour data. Results suggest that concurrent partnerships and other non-spousal partnerships are major drivers of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in South Africa.AIDS/HIV, sexual behavior, simulation model, South Africa

Public perceptions on national health insurance : moving towards universal health coverage in South Africa

Background. Since 1994, considerable progress has been made in transforming the South African health care system, implementing programmes that improve the health of the population, and improving access to health care services. However, amid escalating health care costs disparities continue to exist between the public and private health sectors. The implementation of a national or social health insurance remains elusive despite three government-appointed committees on the matter. Method and objective. This paper reports on the findings of a national probability household sample of the South African population, drawn as part of the 2005 HIV / AIDS national survey, to gauge public opinion on universal health care coverage. The perceptions of South Africans were assessed on selected health care affordability and financing issues. Results. The majority support efforts to contain medicine costs and one-third are of the opinion that the country can provide everyone with all the needed health care and medical services. A large percentage of participants thought it more important to provide improved health care coverage even if it meant raising taxes, while a small percentage said it is better to hold down taxes despite lack of access to health care for some South Africans. Almost a quarter of participants were unable to comment on questions posed to them, indicating the need for improved public education and communication. Conclusion. The study provides important insights into public opinion on key policy issues. However, greater public awareness is needed to ensure an informed debate, while the design of a universal national health insurance scheme must take into account both the current context and public opinion. South African Medical Journal Vol. 96(9) 2006: 814-81

Public perceptions on national health insurance: Moving towards universal health coverage in South Africa

Background. Since 1994, considerable progress has been made in  transforming the South African health care system, implementing  programmes that improve the health of the population, and improving  access to health care services. However, amid escalating health care costs disparities continue to exist between the public and private health sectors. The implementation of a national or social health insunmce remains elusive despite three government-appointed committees on the matter.Method and objective. This paper reports on the findings of a national probability household sample of the South African population, drawn as part of the 2005 HIV I AIDS national survey, to gauge public opinion on universal health care coverage. The perceptions of South Africans were assessed on selected health care affordability and financing issues.Results. The majority support efforts to contain medicine costs and one-third are of the opinion that the country can provide everyone with all the needed health care and medical services. A l&lt;1rge percentage of participants thought it more important to provide improved health care coverage even if it meant raising taxes, while a small percentage said it is better to hold down taxes despite lack of access to health care for some South Africans. Almost a quarter of participants were unable to comment on questions posed to them, indicating the need for improved public  education and communication.Conclusion. The study provides important insights into public opinion on key policy issues. However, greater public awareness is needed to ensure an informed debate, while the design of a universal national health insurance scheme must take into account both the current context and public opinion

National South African HIV prevalence estimates robust despite substantial test non-participation

Background. South African (SA) national HIV seroprevalence estimates are of crucial policy relevance in the country, and for the worldwide HIV response. However, the most recent nationally representative HIV test survey in 2012 had 22% test non-participation, leaving the potential for substantial bias in current seroprevalence estimates, even after controlling for selection on observed factors. Objective. To re-estimate national HIV prevalence in SA, controlling for bias due to selection on both observed and unobserved factors in the 2012 SA National HIV Prevalence, Incidence and Behaviour Survey. Methods. We jointly estimated regression models for consent to test and HIV status in a Heckman-type bivariate probit framework. As selection variable, we used assigned interviewer identity, a variable known to predict consent but highly unlikely to be associated with interviewees’ HIV status. From these models, we estimated the HIV status of interviewed participants who did not test. Results. Of 26 710 interviewed participants who were invited to test for HIV, 21.3% of females and 24.3% of males declined. Interviewer identity was strongly correlated with consent to test for HIV; declining a test was weakly associated with HIV serostatus. Our HIV prevalence estimates were not significantly different from those using standard methods to control for bias due to selection on observed factors: 15.1% (95% confidence interval (CI) 12.1 - 18.6) v. 14.5% (95% CI 12.8 - 16.3) for 15 - 49-year-old males; 23.3% (95% CI 21.7 - 25.8) v. 23.2% (95% CI 21.3 - 25.1) for 15 - 49-year-old females. Conclusion. The most recent SA HIV prevalence estimates are robust under the strongest available test for selection bias due to missing data. Our findings support the reliability of inferences drawn from such data

The case for expanding the definition of ‘key populations’ to include high-risk groups in the general population to improve targeted HIV prevention efforts

Background. Two additional key populations within the general population in South Africa (SA) that are at risk of HIV infection are black African women aged 20 - 34 years and black African men aged 25 - 49 years.Objective. To investigate the social determinants of HIV serostatus for these two high-risk populations.Methods. Data from the 2012 South African National HIV Prevalence, Incidence, and Behaviour Survey were analysed for black African women aged 20 - 34 years and black African men aged 25 - 49 years.Results. Of the 6.4 million people living with HIV in SA in 2012, 1.8 million (28%) were black women aged 20 - 34 years and 1.9 million (30%) black men aged 25 - 49 years. In 2012, they constituted 58% of the total HIV-positive population and 48% of the newly infected population. Low socioeconomic status (SES) was strongly associated (p&lt;0.001) with being HIV-positive among black women aged 20 - 34 years, and was marginally significant among black men aged 25 - 49 years (p&lt;0.1).Conclusion. Low SES is a critical social determinant for HIV infection among the high-risk groups of black African women aged 20 - 34 years and black African men aged 25 - 49 years. Targeted interventions for these key populations should prioritise socioeconomic empowerment, access to formal housing and services, access to higher education, and broad economic transformation