Estimates of eligibility for antiretroviral treatment (ART) and projected ART impact on AIDS mortality among South African educators

The study assessed the proportion of HIV-infected educators that need antiretroviral treatment (ART) according to current criteria, and estimated the impact of ART on AIDS mortality by modelling scenarios with and without access to ART. Specimens for HIV testing were obtained from 17 088 educators and a sub-sample of 444 venous blood specimens from HIV-positive educators was selected for a CD4 cell count analysis.The Spectrum model package was used for estimating AIDS-associated mortality and projecting the impact of ART scenarios.The results of the CD4 cell count analysis in the HIV-positive educator study population showed that 8% had fewer than 100, 22% fewer than 200, 52% fewer than 350, and 72% fewer than 500 CD4 cells/mm3. Based on the proportion of HIV-positive educators with a CD4 cell count < 200 cells/mm3 we estimated that in 2005 approximately 10 700 educators would need ART according to current SA government guidelines. For the baseline scenario without ART the number of AIDS deaths among HIV-infected educators was projected to increase from 1 992 deaths in 2000 to 5 260 in 2010.The number of projected AIDS deaths in the educator study population was estimated to be 4 414 in 2005, with almost 50% of the AIDS deaths occurring in the 35 - 44 age group.The estimates suggest that in 2005 9.1% of the HIV-infected educators, or 1.2% of the total educator population, will be dying of AIDS. By 2010, a reduction of almost 50% in AIDS deaths was estimated for the treatment scenario with 90% ART coverage, compared with the baseline scenario without treatment. The ART impact scenarios illustrate that a relatively high ART coverage would be needed to ensure a substantial impact of ART on HIV/AIDS-associated mortality.Keywords: antiretroviral treatment, CD4 cell counts,AIDS mortality, impact modelingRésuméCette étude a évalué la proportion des enseignants séropositifs qui ont besoin du traitement antirétroviral (ART) selon les critères actuels. De plus, l'étude a fait une prévision de l'impact d'ART sur la mortalité due au SIDA en présentant deux scénarios: les patients avec accès au ART et ceux sans accès. Les spécimens des essais du VIH ont été obtenu de 17 088 enseignants. En autre, avec le but de faire des analyses des comptes des cellules CD4, un sous-échantillon de 444 spécimens de sang veineux fut obtenu des enseignants séropositifs. L'ensemble de modèles Spectrum a été employé afin de faire des prévisions de mortalité liée au SIDA et aussi pour faire une projection de l'impact des scénarios d'ART. Les résultats des analyses des comptes des cellules CD4 d'une étude de population auprès des enseignants séropositifs ont montré que 8% avaient une charge virale en dessous de 100, 22% moins de 200, 52% moins de 350 et 72% moins de 500 CD4 cellules/mm3 respectivement. Etant donné la proportion des enseignants séropositifs ayant un compte des cellules CD4 moins de 200 cellules/mm3, nous avons prévu qu'en 2005 approximativement 10 700 enseignants auraient besoin d'ART suivant les directives actuelles du gouvernement sud-africain. Pour le scénario de référence sans l'ART, le taux de morts parmi les enseignants séropositifs fut prévu d'augmenter de 1 992 morts en 2000 à 5 260 morts en 2010. Le taux de morts de SIDA projeté dans l'étude de population auprès des enseignants fut prévu d'augmenter à 4 414 en 2005 avec environ 50% de morts de SIDA appartenant au groupe âgé de 35 à 44 ans. Les pronostiques suggèrent qu'en 2005, 9.1% des enseignants séropositifs, ou 1.2% de l'ensemble de la population enseignante, mourront de SIDA. D'ici 2010, une baisse d'environ 50% de morts de SIDA est prévue pour les scénarios sur traitement, avec une provision de 90% d'ART en comparaison au scénario de référence sans traitement. Les scénarios de l'impact d'ART démontrent qu'une provision relativement élevée d'ART serait nécessaire afin d'assurer un impact considérable d'ART sur la mortalité liée au VIH/SIDA.Mots clés: traitement antirétroviral, comptes des cellules CD4, mortalité de SIDA, modeler l'impact SAHARA J (Journal of Social Aspects of HIV/AIDS Research Alliance) Vol. 2(3) 2005: 300-31

Sexual behaviour patterns in South Africa and their association with the spread of HIV: insights from a mathematical model

This paper aims to quantify the effects of different types of sexual risk behaviour on the spread of HIV in South Africa. A mathematical model is developed to simulate changes in numbers of sexual partners, changes in marital status, changes in commercial sex activity and changes in the frequency of unprotected sex over the life course. This is extended to allow for the transmission of HIV, and the model is fitted to South African HIV prevalence data and sexual behaviour data. Results suggest that concurrent partnerships and other non-spousal partnerships are major drivers of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in South Africa.AIDS/HIV, sexual behavior, simulation model, South Africa

National HIV incidence measures - new insights into the South African epidemic

Background and objectives. Currently South Africa does not have national HIV incidence data based on laboratory testing of blood specimens. The 2005 South African national HIV household survey was analysed to generate national incidence estimates stratified by age, sex, race, province and locality type, to compare the HIV incidence and HIV prevalence profiles by sex, and to examine the relationship between HIV prevalence, HIV incidence and associated risk factors. Method. The detection of recent infections was performed on confirmed HIV-positive samples, using the BED capture enzyme immunoassay optimised for dried blood spot (DBS) specimens. BED HIV incidence calculations applied adjustment procedures that were recently revised and approved by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for subtype C blood specimens. Results. HIV incidence in the study population aged 2 years and older was 1.4% per year, with 571 000 new HIV infections estimated for 2005. An HIV incidence rate of 2.4% was recorded for the age group 15 - 49 years. The incidence of HIV among females peaked in the 20 - 29-year age group at 5.6%, more than six times the incidence found in 20 - 29-year-old males (0.9%). Among youth aged 15 - 24 years, females account for 90% of the recent HIV infections. Non-condom use among youth, current pregnancy and widowhood were the socio-behavioural factors associated with the highest HIV incidence rates. Conclusions. The HIV incidence estimates reflect the underlying transmission dynamics that are currently at work in South Africa. The findings suggest that the current prevention campaigns are not having the desired impact, particularly among young women.South African Medical Journal Vol. 97 (2) 2007: pp.194-19

Age at sexual debut: A determinant of multiple partnership among South African youth

Age at sexual debut is an important determinant of HIV infection. The paper investigates the effects of age at sexual debut on sexual behaviour among South African youth. Among 2 875 respondents who ever had sexual intercourse, 39% had early sexual debut (sexual debut at age 16 years and below). Males (44.6%) were significantly more likely than females (35.1%) to report early sexual debut (odds ratio (OR)=1.45, p-value &lt;0.001). Multiple sexual partners are significantly more common among those that had early sexual debut (10.4% vs. 4.8%) than those who had late sexual debut, (OR=2.29, p-value&lt;0.001). Those aged 15 to 19 years were 1.4 times more likely to report multiple partners compared to those aged 20 to 24 years. Delaying sexual debut is a strategy many national programmes are promoting. The results of this study provide additional arguments to support such initiatives and show the need to strengthen intervention targeting youth (Afr. J. Reprod. Health 2010; 14[2]:47-54)

Public perceptions on national health insurance : moving towards universal health coverage in South Africa

Background. Since 1994, considerable progress has been made in transforming the South African health care system, implementing programmes that improve the health of the population, and improving access to health care services. However, amid escalating health care costs disparities continue to exist between the public and private health sectors. The implementation of a national or social health insurance remains elusive despite three government-appointed committees on the matter. Method and objective. This paper reports on the findings of a national probability household sample of the South African population, drawn as part of the 2005 HIV / AIDS national survey, to gauge public opinion on universal health care coverage. The perceptions of South Africans were assessed on selected health care affordability and financing issues. Results. The majority support efforts to contain medicine costs and one-third are of the opinion that the country can provide everyone with all the needed health care and medical services. A large percentage of participants thought it more important to provide improved health care coverage even if it meant raising taxes, while a small percentage said it is better to hold down taxes despite lack of access to health care for some South Africans. Almost a quarter of participants were unable to comment on questions posed to them, indicating the need for improved public education and communication. Conclusion. The study provides important insights into public opinion on key policy issues. However, greater public awareness is needed to ensure an informed debate, while the design of a universal national health insurance scheme must take into account both the current context and public opinion. South African Medical Journal Vol. 96(9) 2006: 814-81

Recent HIV prevalence trends among pregnant women and all women in sub-Saharan Africa: implications for HIV estimates

OBJECTIVES: National population-wide HIV prevalence and incidence trends in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are indirectly estimated using HIV prevalence measured among pregnant women attending antenatal clinics (ANC), among other data. We evaluated whether recent HIV prevalence trends among pregnant women are representative of general population trends. DESIGN: Serial population-based household surveys in 13 SSA countries. METHODS: We calculated HIV prevalence trends among all women aged 15–49 years and currently pregnant women between surveys conducted from 2003 to 2008 (period 1) and 2009 to 2012 (period 2). Log-binomial regression was used to test for a difference in prevalence trend between the two groups. Prevalence among pregnant women was age-standardized to represent the age distribution of all women. RESULTS: Pooling data for all countries, HIV prevalence declined among pregnant women from 6.5 [95% confidence interval (CI) 5.3–7.9%] to 5.3% (95% CI 4.2–6.6%) between periods 1 and 2, whereas it remained unchanged among all women at 8.4% (95% CI 8.0–8.9%) in period 1 and 8.3% (95% CI 7.9–8.8%) in period 2. Prevalence declined by 18% (95% CI −9–38%) more in pregnant women than nonpregnant women. Estimates were similar in Western, Eastern, and Southern regions of SSA; none were statistically significant (P > 0.05). HIV prevalence decreased significantly among women aged 15–24 years while increasing significantly among women 35–49 years, who represented 29% of women but only 15% of pregnant women. Age-standardization of prevalence in pregnant women did not reconcile the discrepant trends because at older ages prevalence was lower among pregnant women than nonpregnant women. CONCLUSION: As HIV prevalence in SSA has shifted toward older, less-fertile women, HIV prevalence among pregnant women has declined more rapidly than prevalence in women overall. Interpretation of ANC prevalence data to inform national HIV estimates should account for both age-specific fertility patterns and HIV-related sub-fertility

Public perceptions on national health insurance: Moving towards universal health coverage in South Africa

Background. Since 1994, considerable progress has been made in  transforming the South African health care system, implementing  programmes that improve the health of the population, and improving  access to health care services. However, amid escalating health care costs disparities continue to exist between the public and private health sectors. The implementation of a national or social health insunmce remains elusive despite three government-appointed committees on the matter.Method and objective. This paper reports on the findings of a national probability household sample of the South African population, drawn as part of the 2005 HIV I AIDS national survey, to gauge public opinion on universal health care coverage. The perceptions of South Africans were assessed on selected health care affordability and financing issues.Results. The majority support efforts to contain medicine costs and one-third are of the opinion that the country can provide everyone with all the needed health care and medical services. A l&lt;1rge percentage of participants thought it more important to provide improved health care coverage even if it meant raising taxes, while a small percentage said it is better to hold down taxes despite lack of access to health care for some South Africans. Almost a quarter of participants were unable to comment on questions posed to them, indicating the need for improved public  education and communication.Conclusion. The study provides important insights into public opinion on key policy issues. However, greater public awareness is needed to ensure an informed debate, while the design of a universal national health insurance scheme must take into account both the current context and public opinion

Condom Access in South African Schools: Law, Policy, and Practice

Juliana Han and Michael L. Bennish discuss their experience developing a policy on condom distribution for Mpilonhle, a South African nongovernmental organization involved in HIV prevention in schools