INKLUSI KEUANGAN DAN TEKNOLOGI, P2P LENDING, KEMISKINAN DAN PENGEMBANGAN SUMBER DAYA MANUSIA AGREGAT

This study aims to find the development of aggregate human resources based on human capital investment in poverty alleviation efforts in Indonesia. The data used is secondary data obtained and processed from the Indonesian Financial Services Authority and the world bank. This study uses a vector error correction model to estimate, simulate, and predict each of the variables studied to provide an overview of the opportunities and threats of technological inclusion and financial inclusion in poverty reduction efforts based on human capital investment in the education-based human capital framework. Inclusion has the potential to be an opportunity to reduce the cost of education so that human capital investment efforts in the framework of education-based human capital work by the poor have a higher chance of success. Financial inclusion support from official P2P lending can also support poor people's capital in investing in human capital, but with low interest and must be close to zero and would be better with zero interest. Keywords: education, financial inclusion, human resources, P2P lending, poverty alleviatio

Monetary and fiscal policy mix connectivity towards the business cycle in Indonesia

This research is based on the magnitude of the influence of monetary and fiscal aspects, namely the money supply, exchange rates, government spending, and taxes on the business cycle in Indonesia. This study aims to examine the effect of the connection between the monetary and fiscal policy mix on the business cycle in Indonesia. For analysis purposes, secondary data was used in the form of time-series data from 1970–2017. The method used is the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to see long-term and short-term relationships. In the estimation results, it is found that in the long-term period, the monetary variables (money supply and exchange rates) and fiscal variables (government expenditures and taxes) have a significant positive effect on the business cycle in Indonesia.In contrast, the monetary variables that have a significant effect in the short-term period are only the amount variable money supply. There are no fiscal variables that have a significant effect on the business cycle in Indonesia. The interaction of monetary and fiscal policies is still effectively implemented in Indonesia

ANALISIS EFEKTIVITAS KEBIJAKAN MONETER DAN KEBIJAKAN FISKAL DALAM MENGATASI INFLASI DI INDONESIA

Unstable inflation is influenced by economic conditions. Macroeconomic conditions in Indonesia make inflation increase or decrease. The policies taken by the government and the central bank determine the size of inflation. Community consumption patterns also play a role in increasing inflation. The purpose of this study is to determine the most effective policy in overcoming inflation, using the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model to estimate the research variables. Impulse response function and variance decomposition that describes how and how the influence of inflation fluctuations. VAR estimates show significant inflation influenced by the money supply and SBI interest rate in the first lag. Meanwhile, taxes and government spending are significant in the second lag. Impulse response analysis shows that inflation response is fastest and strongest by the money supply. While the description of variance decomposition, the variations described inflation most affect the change of inflation itself and second order is the money supply

The Impacts Of Inbound Tourism Activities And Macroeconomic Variables On Environmental Degradation In Asean-4

This study aims to analyze the impacts and causal relationship between inbound tourism activities and macroeconomic variables on environmental degradation and  to analyze the environmental degradation response due to shocks that occur in inbound tourism activities and macroeconomic variables in four countries with the highest international tourist visits in the ASEAN region of Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand known as ASEAN-4 for Periode 1995-2015. The method used in the research is panel vector error correction model (PVECM). The results showed that inbound tourism activities positively influence in the long-term and short-term  environmental degradation in ASEAN-4. Among  macroeconomic variables only gross domestic product (GDP) positively affects environmental degradation in the long term and short term whereas energy consumption only affects environmental degradation in the short term. There is a direct causal relationship of inbound  tourism activity with environmental degradation and environmental degradation with GDP. Energy consumption and environmental degradation manifest  bidirectional causality with a feedback effect. Impulse response function indicates environmental degradation responds negatively to the shocks that occur in Inbound tourism and GDP activities. The positive response is indicated by environmental degradation in case of shock to energy consumption

KETIDAKPASTIAN KEBIJAKAN EKONOMI CHINA DAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI INDONESIA

Global economic policy uncertainty will influence economic stability among countries integrated into international trade. The trade war between America and China has affected the weakening of macroeconomic indicators in developing countries, one of which is Indonesia. The objective of this study is to examine the influence of China's economic policy uncertainty and macroeconomic indicators, i.e., inflation, investment, and Brent oil price, on Indonesia's economic growth. Research data were secondary time series data taken from the Q1 2009-Q4 2018 quarterly period. The method of analysis used is the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Results showed that in the long run, the uncertainty of China's economic policy and Brent oil price could negatively influence Indonesia's economic growth. On the other hand, inflation, in the long run, had a positive and significant influence on Indonesia's economic growth. Meanwhile, investment did not have a significant influence on Indonesia's economic growth. Keywords: economic growth, uncertainty of economic policy, Vector Error Correction Mode

The Impact of ICT on Economic Growth in the Fourth Industrial Revolution: Modeling Using Principal Component Panel Regression

In the fourth industrial revolution, information and communication technology (ICT) has posed a paradox. On the one hand, ICT plays an important role in human life, not only as information and communication devices but also as the booster of economic activities to enhance revenue. On the other hand, ICT has also created disruption in various aspects of life which resulting in disadvantages to some groups in the society.  This study aims to examine whether technology still has a positive effect on the economy. To achieve this objective, it took a case study from East Java Province, Indonesia.  The data is panel consisting of gross regional product and the number of ICT users in East Java.  More specifically, the number of ICT users consists of several variables, i.e. the number of the mobile phone users, the number of computer users, the number of internet users, the number of internet users for transactions of goods and services, and the number of the internet users for financial facilities.  The analysis employed least square panel regression with gross regional product as the response variable and the number of ICT users as a predictor variable.  However, there was a high correlation between the predictor variables that caused the model regression not proper.  This problem was solved by combining least square panel regression with Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Using PCA method, the dimension of the variable was reduced to be one principal component.  This principal component is a linear combination of the predictor variables.  Then, this principal component was regressed with the gross regional product.  The best panel regression model is the Fixed Effect Model.  This model shows that all predictor variables have positive coefficients.  It means that ICT still has a positive impact on economic growth

DETERMINAN ALIRAN FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT DI INDONESIA (PENDEKATAN MODEL DUNNING)

Traffic capital across countries is one of  investment opportunities from domestic and abroad to stimulate the economic growth  of developing countries. Compared to other forms of capital, Foreign Direct Investment is the flow of capital is long-term and relatively not as vulnerable to economic shocks. The aim of this study is to see the performance of FDI movement as a capital inflow in Indonesia and to explores whether factors that affect FDI using Dunning’s ecletic model. This study focused on two basic analysis, descriptive analysis and quantitative analysis using the Error Correction Model (ECM). The results of short-term ECM estimate shows that FDI is influenced by inflation and the degree of economic openness. Furthermore, the result in the long term ECM estimate show that only variable that infrastructure does not significantly affect the movement of FDI in Indonesia.

Workers Adaptation during Pandemic, Evidence from Bali Province as Main Tourist Destination in Indonesia

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a major impact on various sectors in Indonesia, one of which is the tourism sector. This stems from the policies carried out by the government in the form of travel bans to closing hotels which have reduced the supply and demand of domestic and international tourism which has led to the stagnation of the tourism industry. As a result, many workers in the tourism sector are affected, ranging from layoffs to reduced income. This study aims to find out how the impact and adaptation of the tourism sector workforce during the COVID-19 pandemic was extended to the analysis of labor migration in the tourism sector affected by the COVID-19 pandemic using SAKERNAS data in August 2020 and survey data on labor conditions. The results of the study show that the COVID-19 pandemic has had a huge impact on tourism sector employment in the form of layoffs, changes in types of work to a decrease in income. Various alternatives in doing business to increase additional income or in the field of work have been carried out by workers as an adaptation step to new conditions during the COVID-19 pandemic

Determinan Penyerapan Tenaga Kerja Di Indonesia Tahun 2011-2015

Labor absorption is a certain amount of labor that is absorbed and used in a particular business unit to run the production process. The absorption of labor is influenced by the level of investment, and the minimum wage of labor. Determination of the level of wages made by the government in a region will have an influence on the magnitude of the existing unemployment rate. The higher wages set by the government will result in a decrease in the number of people working in the country. This study aims to determine the effect of provincial minimum wages, investment and education levels on employment in Indonesia. The analytical method used in this study is a quantitative analysis method with panel data regression (Pooled Least Squares). The results of the analysis of this study are that the provincial minimum wage, investment and education level variables have a significant positive effect on the employment variable