Skill Rating by Bayesian Inference

Systems Engineering often involves computer modelling the behaviour of proposed systems and their components. Where a component is human, fallibility must be modelled by a stochastic agent. The identification of a model of decision-making over quantifiable options is investigated using the game-domain of Chess. Bayesian methods are used to infer the distribution of players’ skill levels from the moves they play rather than from their competitive results. The approach is used on large sets of games by players across a broad FIDE Elo range, and is in principle applicable to any scenario where high-value decisions are being made under pressure

Intrinsic chess rating

This paper develops and tests formulas for representing playing strength at chess by the quality of moves played, rather than by the results of games. Intrinsic quality is estimated via evaluations given by computer chess programs run to high depth, ideally so that their playing strength is sufficiently far ahead of the best human players as to be a `relatively omniscient' guide. Several formulas, each having intrinsic skill parameters s for `sensitivity' and c for `consistency', are argued theoretically and tested by regression on large sets of tournament games played by humans of varying strength as measured by the internationally standard Elo rating system. This establishes a correspondence between Elo rating and the parameters. A smooth correspondence is shown between statistical results and the century points on the Elo scale, and ratings are shown to have stayed quite constant over time. That is, there has been little or no `rating inflation'. The theory and empirical results are transferable to other rational-choice settings in which the alternatives have well-defined utilities, but in which complexity and bounded information constrain the perception of the utility values

A Simpler Proof of PH C BP[ӨP]

We simplify the proof by S. Toda [Tod89] that the polynomial hierarchy PH is contained in BP[ӨP]. Our methods bypass the technical quantifier interchange lemmas in the original proof, and clarify the counting principles on which the result depends. We also show that relative to a random oracle R, PHR is strictly contained in ӨPR

The power of the middle bit of a #P function

Peer Reviewe

Seizure during hyperbaric oxygen therapy for carbon monoxide toxicity: a case series and five-year experience.

BACKGROUND: Hyperbaric oxygen (HBO) therapy is recommended to reduce the delayed neurologic sequelae resulting from carbon monoxide (CO) toxicity. Although HBO is generally well tolerated, there exists a risk of seizure in all patients that may be increased in patients with predisposing factors including: fever, hypothermia, prior seizure, or brain injury. CASE REPORT: We present two cases of patients without known risk factors who experienced seizures associated with HBO therapy during treatment for CO toxicity. CONCLUSION: This facility\u27s 5-year experience and a review of the germane literature are also presented to elucidate the risk factors and incidence of seizures in patients treated with HBO for CO toxicity

A unique subset of glycolytic tumour-propagating cells drives squamous cell carcinoma

Head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) remains among the most aggressive human cancers. Tumour progression and aggressiveness in SCC are largely driven by tumour-propagating cells (TPCs). Aerobic glycolysis, also known as the Warburg effect, is a characteristic of many cancers; however, whether this adaptation is functionally important in SCC, and at which stage, remains poorly understood. Here, we show that the NAD+-dependent histone deacetylase sirtuin 6 is a robust tumour suppressor in SCC, acting as a modulator of glycolysis in these tumours. Remarkably, rather than a late adaptation, we find enhanced glycolysis specifically in TPCs. More importantly, using single-cell RNA sequencing of TPCs, we identify a subset of TPCs with higher glycolysis and enhanced pentose phosphate pathway and glutathione metabolism, characteristics that are strongly associated with a better antioxidant response. Together, our studies uncover enhanced glycolysis as a main driver in SCC, and, more importantly, identify a subset of TPCs as the cell of origin for the Warburg effect, defining metabolism as a key feature of intra-tumour heterogeneity

An inherited duplication at the gene p21 protein-activated Kinase 7 (PAK7) is a risk factor for psychosis

FUNDING Funding for this study was provided by the Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium 2 project (085475/B/08/Z and 085475/Z/08/Z), the Wellcome Trust (072894/Z/03/Z, 090532/Z/09/Z and 075491/Z/04/B), NIMH grants (MH 41953 and MH083094) and Science Foundation Ireland (08/IN.1/B1916). We acknowledge use of the Trinity Biobank sample from the Irish Blood Transfusion Service; the Trinity Centre for High Performance Computing; British 1958 Birth Cohort DNA collection funded by the Medical Research Council (G0000934) and the Wellcome Trust (068545/Z/02) and of the UK National Blood Service controls funded by the Wellcome Trust. Chris Spencer is supported by a Wellcome Trust Career Development Fellowship (097364/Z/11/Z). Funding to pay the Open Access publication charges for this article was provided by the Wellcome Trust. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The authors sincerely thank all patients who contributed to this study and all staff who facilitated their involvement. We thank W. Bodmer and B. Winney for use of the People of the British Isles DNA collection, which was funded by the Wellcome Trust. We thank Akira Sawa and Koko Ishzuki for advice on the PAK7–DISC1 interaction experiment and Jan Korbel for discussions on mechanism of structural variation.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

The James Webb Space Telescope Mission: Optical Telescope Element Design, Development, and Performance

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) is a large, infrared space telescope that has recently started its science program which will enable breakthroughs in astrophysics and planetary science. Notably, JWST will provide the very first observations of the earliest luminous objects in the Universe and start a new era of exoplanet atmospheric characterization. This transformative science is enabled by a 6.6 m telescope that is passively cooled with a 5-layer sunshield. The primary mirror is comprised of 18 controllable, low areal density hexagonal segments, that were aligned and phased relative to each other in orbit using innovative image-based wavefront sensing and control algorithms. This revolutionary telescope took more than two decades to develop with a widely distributed team across engineering disciplines. We present an overview of the telescope requirements, architecture, development, superb on-orbit performance, and lessons learned. JWST successfully demonstrates a segmented aperture space telescope and establishes a path to building even larger space telescopes.Comment: accepted by PASP for JWST Overview Special Issue; 34 pages, 25 figure