Uncertainty in geological and hydrogeological data

Uncertainty in conceptual model structure and in environmental data is of essential interest when dealing with uncertainty in water resources management. To make quantification of uncertainty possible is it necessary to identify and characterise the uncertainty in geological and hydrogeological data. This paper discusses a range of available techniques to describe the uncertainty related to geological model structure and scale of support. Literature examples on uncertainty in hydrogeological variables such as saturated hydraulic conductivity, specific yield, specific storage, effective porosity and dispersivity are given. Field data usually have a spatial and temporal scale of support that is different from the one on which numerical models for water resources management operate. Uncertainty in hydrogeological data variables is characterised and assessed within the methodological framework of the HarmoniRiB classification

Modelling the hydrological impacts of climate change on UK lowland wet grassland

Hydrological impacts of climate change upon the Elmley Marshes, southeast England, are simulated using a coupled hydrological/hydraulic model developed using MIKE SHE/MIKE 11 and calibrated to contemporary conditions. Predicted changes in precipitation, temperature, radiation and wind speed from the UK Climate Impacts Programme associated with four emissions scenarios for the 2050s are used to modify precipitation and potential evapotranspiration data. For each emissions scenario two sets of potential evapotranspiration data are derived, one using changes in temperature (PETtemp), the other incorporating changes in temperature, radiation and wind speed (PETtrws). Results indicate drier conditions through the progressively higher emissions scenarios when compared to contemporary conditions. Changes are particularly pronounced when using PETtrws. Summer water tables are lower (PETtemp 0.01�0.08 m; PETtrws 0.07�0.27 m) and the duration of high winter water tables is reduced. Although water tables still intercept the surface in winter when using PETtemp, this ceases when PETtrws is employed. Summer ditch water levels for the PETtemp scenarios are lower (0.01�0.21 m) and in dry winters they do not reach mean field level. Under the PETtrws scenarios summer and winter ditch water levels are lower by on average 0.21 and 0.30 m, respectively. Levels never reach the elevation of the marsh surface. Lower groundwater and ditch water levels result in declines in the magnitude and duration of surface inundation which is virtually eliminated with the PETtrws scenarios. The changes in hydrological conditions simulated by the model are of sufficiently fine resolution to infer ecological impacts which are likely to include the loss of some grassland species adapted to high water tables. Reductions in the extent of surface water in spring, especially for the PETtrws scenarios, are likely to reduce suitability for wading birds including lapwing (Vanellus vanellus) and redshank (Tringa totanus) for which the marshes are internationally renowned

Measurement of the branching ratio for beta-delayed alpha decay of 16N

While the 12C(a,g)16O reaction plays a central role in nuclear astrophysics, the cross section at energies relevant to hydrostatic helium burning is too small to be directly measured in the laboratory. The beta-delayed alpha spectrum of 16N can be used to constrain the extrapolation of the E1 component of the S-factor; however, with this approach the resulting S-factor becomes strongly correlated with the assumed beta-alpha branching ratio. We have remeasured the beta-alpha branching ratio by implanting 16N ions in a segmented Si detector and counting the number of beta-alpha decays relative to the number of implantations. Our result, 1.49(5)e-5, represents a 24% increase compared to the accepted value and implies an increase of 14% in the extrapolated S-factor

Local control on precipitation in a fully coupled climate-hydrology model

The ability to simulate regional precipitation realistically by climate models is essential to understand and adapt to climate change. Due to the complexity of associated processes, particularly at unresolved temporal and spatial scales this continues to be a major challenge. As a result, climate simulations of precipitation often exhibit substantial biases that affect the reliability of future projections. Here we demonstrate how a regional climate model (RCM) coupled to a distributed hydrological catchment model that fully integrates water and energy fluxes between the subsurface, land surface, plant cover and the atmosphere, enables a realistic representation of local precipitation. Substantial improvements in simulated precipitation dynamics on seasonal and longer time scales is seen for a simulation period of six years and can be attributed to a more complete treatment of hydrological sub-surface processes including groundwater and moisture feedback. A high degree of local influence on the atmosphere suggests that coupled climate-hydrology models have a potential for improving climate projections and the results further indicate a diminished need for bias correction in climate-hydrology impact studies

Current Results of the EC-sponsored Catchment Modelling (CatchMod) Cluster

To support the Water Framework Directive implementation, much research has been commissioned at both national and European levels. CatchMod is a cluster of these projects, which is focusing on the development of computational catchment models and related tools. This paper presents an overview of the results of the CatchMod cluster to dat

Kost-effekt-vurderinger av tiltak mot fosfortap fra jordbruksarealer

Kostnadseffektiviteten av tiltak skal ifølge vannforskriften danne grunnlag for valg av tiltak mot fosforavrenning fra jordbruksareal i hvert vannområde. Kunnskap om kostnader og effekter av jordarbeidingstiltak, grasdekte vegetasjonssoner og fangdammer er nå samlet i en egen kosteffekt-kalkulator for norske kornområder

Structuring multidisciplinary knowledge for model-based water management: the HarmoniQuA approach

The Water Framework Directive (WFD) provides European policy at the river basin scale. It explicitly states that water resource models should be applied. The EU- financed project HarmoniQuA aims at improving the quality of model based water management at catchment and river basin scales by providing guidance throughout the modelling process and by supporting all persons involved (water managers, modellers, auditors, stakeholders and concerned members of the public) in their activities. The guidelines are based on accepted and common methodology and practices of experienced modellers. This knowledge is collected, completed, improved and made available in the form of a Knowledge Base, using state-of-the-art knowledge engineering technology with an ontological approach. MoST, the software tool of HarmoniQuA, provides guidance from the Knowledge Base it supports monitoring of the modelling activities and reporting to various audiences. In the future MoST will use expertise collected in previous modelling studies to advise on how to perform the model study at hand. This paper focuses on how HarmoniQuA handles and improves existing knowledge on modelling for water managemen

An automated method to build groundwater model hydrostratigraphy from airborne electromagnetic data and lithological borehole logs

Abstract. Large-scale integrated hydrological models are important decision support tools in water resources management. The largest source of uncertainty in such models is the hydrostratigraphic model. Geometry and configuration of hydrogeological units are often poorly determined from hydrogeological data alone. Due to sparse sampling in space, lithological borehole logs may overlook structures that are important for groundwater flow at larger scales. Good spatial coverage along with high spatial resolution makes airborne time-domain electromagnetic (AEM) data valuable for the structural input to large-scale groundwater models. We present a novel method to automatically integrate large AEM data-sets and lithological information into large-scale hydrological models. Clay-fraction maps are produced by translating geophysical resistivity into clay-fraction values using lithological borehole information. Voxel models of electrical resistivity and clay fraction are classified into hydrostratigraphic zones using k-means clustering. Hydraulic conductivity values of the zones are estimated by hydrological calibration using hydraulic head and stream discharge observations. The method is applied to a Danish case study. Benchmarking hydrological performance by comparison of simulated hydrological state variables, the cluster model performed competitively. Calibrations of 11 hydrostratigraphic cluster models with 1–11 hydraulic conductivity zones showed improved hydrological performance with increasing number of clusters. Beyond the 5-cluster model hydrological performance did not improve. Due to reproducibility and possibility of method standardization and automation, we believe that hydrostratigraphic model generation with the proposed method has important prospects for groundwater models used in water resources management.</jats:p