Measurement error in a multi-level analysis of air pollution and health: a simulation study.

BACKGROUND: Spatio-temporal models are increasingly being used to predict exposure to ambient outdoor air pollution at high spatial resolution for inclusion in epidemiological analyses of air pollution and health. Measurement error in these predictions can nevertheless have impacts on health effect estimation. Using statistical simulation we aim to investigate the effects of such error within a multi-level model analysis of long and short-term pollutant exposure and health. METHODS: Our study was based on a theoretical sample of 1000 geographical sites within Greater London. Simulations of "true" site-specific daily mean and 5-year mean NO2 and PM10 concentrations, incorporating both temporal variation and spatial covariance, were informed by an analysis of daily measurements over the period 2009-2013 from fixed location urban background monitors in the London area. In the context of a multi-level single-pollutant Poisson regression analysis of mortality, we investigated scenarios in which we specified: the Pearson correlation between modelled and "true" data and the ratio of their variances (model versus "true") and assumed these parameters were the same spatially and temporally. RESULTS: In general, health effect estimates associated with both long and short-term exposure were biased towards the null with the level of bias increasing to over 60% as the correlation coefficient decreased from 0.9 to 0.5 and the variance ratio increased from 0.5 to 2. However, for a combination of high correlation (0.9) and small variance ratio (0.5) non-trivial bias (> 25%) away from the null was observed. Standard errors of health effect estimates, though unaffected by changes in the correlation coefficient, appeared to be attenuated for variance ratios > 1 but inflated for variance ratios < 1. CONCLUSION: While our findings suggest that in most cases modelling errors result in attenuation of the effect estimate towards the null, in some situations a non-trivial bias away from the null may occur. The magnitude and direction of bias appears to depend on the relationship between modelled and "true" data in terms of their correlation and the ratio of their variances. These factors should be taken into account when assessing the validity of modelled air pollution predictions for use in complex epidemiological models

HCMV carriage in the elderly diminishes anti-viral functionality of the adaptive immune response resulting in virus replication at peripheral sites.

Human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) infection and periodic reactivation is, generally, well controlled by adaptative immune responses in the healthy. In older people, overt HCMV disease is rarely seen despite the association of HCMV with increased risk of mortality; evidence from studies of unwell aged populations suggest that HCMV seropositivity is an important co-morbidity factor. HCMV genomes have been detected in urine from older donors, suggesting that the immune response prevents systemic disease but possibly immunomodulation due to lifelong viral carriage may alter its efficacy at peripheral tissue sites. Previously we have demonstrated that there were no age-related expansions of T cell responses to HCMV or increase in latent viral carriage with age and these T cells produced anti-viral cytokines and viremia was very rarely detected. To investigate the efficacy of anti-HCMV responses with increasing age, we used an in vitro Viral Dissemination Assay (VDA) using autologous dermal fibroblasts to determine the anti-viral effector capacity of total PBMC, as well as important subsets (T cells, NK cells). In parallel we assessed components of the humoral response (antibody neutralization) and combined this with qPCR detection of HCMV in blood, saliva and urine in a cohort of young and old donors. Consistent with previous studies, we again show HCMV specific cIL-10, IFNγ and TNFα T cell responses to peptides did not show an age-related defect. However, assessment of direct anti-viral cellular and antibody-mediated adaptive immune responses using the VDA shows that older donors are significantly less able to control viral dissemination in an in vitro assay compared to young donors. Corroborating this observation, we detected viral genomes in saliva samples only from older donors, these donors had a defect in cellular control of viral spread in our in vitro assay. Phenotyping of fibroblasts used in this study shows expression of a number of checkpoint inhibitor ligands which may contribute to the defects observed. The potential to therapeutically intervene in checkpoint inhibitor pathways to prevent HCMV reactivation in the unwell aged is an exciting avenue to explore

Cathedral engagement with young people

The Archbishops’ Commission on Cathedrals (1994) identified education as among the crucial purposes of cathedrals. This chapter analyzes the websites of fifteen cathedrals within the most urban dioceses of the Church of England and the Church in Wales in order to ascertain the variety of ways in which cathedrals are advancing the educational work of the Church in urban areas. The analysis distinguishes between four primary areas of activity, characterized as concerning school-related education, faith-related education, visitor-related education, and music-related education. Each of these four areas is illustrated by a case study profiling current practice

Massive stars as thermonuclear reactors and their explosions following core collapse

Nuclear reactions transform atomic nuclei inside stars. This is the process of stellar nucleosynthesis. The basic concepts of determining nuclear reaction rates inside stars are reviewed. How stars manage to burn their fuel so slowly most of the time are also considered. Stellar thermonuclear reactions involving protons in hydrostatic burning are discussed first. Then I discuss triple alpha reactions in the helium burning stage. Carbon and oxygen survive in red giant stars because of the nuclear structure of oxygen and neon. Further nuclear burning of carbon, neon, oxygen and silicon in quiescent conditions are discussed next. In the subsequent core-collapse phase, neutronization due to electron capture from the top of the Fermi sea in a degenerate core takes place. The expected signal of neutrinos from a nearby supernova is calculated. The supernova often explodes inside a dense circumstellar medium, which is established due to the progenitor star losing its outermost envelope in a stellar wind or mass transfer in a binary system. The nature of the circumstellar medium and the ejecta of the supernova and their dynamics are revealed by observations in the optical, IR, radio, and X-ray bands, and I discuss some of these observations and their interpretations.Comment: To be published in " Principles and Perspectives in Cosmochemistry" Lecture Notes on Kodai School on Synthesis of Elements in Stars; ed. by Aruna Goswami & Eswar Reddy, Springer Verlag, 2009. Contains 21 figure

Galaxy evolution: black hole feedback in the luminous quasar PDS 456

The evolution of galaxies is connected to the growth of supermassive black holes in their centers. During the quasar phase, a huge luminosity is released as matter falls onto the black hole, and radiation-driven winds can transfer most of this energy back to the host galaxy. Over five different epochs, we detected the signatures of a nearly spherical stream of highly ionized gas in the broadband x-ray spectra of the luminous quasar PDS 456. This persistent wind is expelled at relativistic speeds from the inner accretion disk, and its wide aperture suggests an effective coupling with the ambient gas. The outflow's kinetic power larger than 10(46) ergs per second is enough to provide the feedback required by models of black hole and host galaxy coevolution

Indices of insulin sensitivity and secretion from a standard liquid meal test in subjects with type 2 diabetes, impaired or normal fasting glucose

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>To provide an initial evaluation of insulin sensitivity and secretion indices derived from a standard liquid meal tolerance test protocol in subjects with normal (NFG), impaired fasting glucose (IFG) or type 2 diabetes mellitus.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Areas under the curve (AUC) for glucose, insulin and C-peptide from pre-meal to 120 min after consumption of a liquid meal were calculated, as were homeostasis model assessments of insulin resistance (HOMA2-IR) and the Matsuda index of insulin sensitivity.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Subjects with NFG (n = 19), IFG (n = 19), and diabetes (n = 35) had mean ± SEM HOMA2-IR values of 1.0 ± 0.1, 1.6 ± 0.2 and 2.5 ± 0.3 and Matsuda insulin sensitivity index values of 15.6 ± 2.0, 8.8 ± 1.2 and 6.0 ± 0.6, respectively. The log-transformed values for these variables were highly correlated overall and within each fasting glucose category (r = -0.91 to -0.94, all p < 0.001). Values for the product of the insulin/glucose AUC ratio and the Matsuda index, an indicator of the ability of the pancreas to match insulin secretion to the degree of insulin resistance, were 995.6 ± 80.7 (NFG), 684.0 ± 57.3 (IFG) and 188.3 ± 16.1 (diabetes) and discriminated significantly between fasting glucose categories (p < 0.001 for each comparison).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>These results provide initial evidence to support the usefulness of a standard liquid meal tolerance test for evaluation of insulin secretion and sensitivity in clinical and population studies.</p

Blocking TLR7- and TLR9-mediated IFN-α Production by Plasmacytoid Dendritic Cells Does Not Diminish Immune Activation in Early SIV Infection

Persistent production of type I interferon (IFN) by activated plasmacytoid dendritic cells (pDC) is a leading model to explain chronic immune activation in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection but direct evidence for this is lacking. We used a dual antagonist of Toll-like receptor (TLR) 7 and TLR9 to selectively inhibit responses of pDC but not other mononuclear phagocytes to viral RNA prior to and for 8 weeks following pathogenic simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) infection of rhesus macaques. We show that pDC are major but not exclusive producers of IFN-α that rapidly become unresponsive to virus stimulation following SIV infection, whereas myeloid DC gain the capacity to produce IFN-α, albeit at low levels. pDC mediate a marked but transient IFN-α response in lymph nodes during the acute phase that is blocked by administration of TLR7 and TLR9 antagonist without impacting pDC recruitment. TLR7 and TLR9 blockade did not impact virus load or the acute IFN-α response in plasma and had minimal effect on expression of IFN-stimulated genes in both blood and lymph node. TLR7 and TLR9 blockade did not prevent activation of memory CD4+ and CD8+ T cells in blood or lymph node but led to significant increases in proliferation of both subsets in blood following SIV infection. Our findings reveal that virus-mediated activation of pDC through TLR7 and TLR9 contributes to substantial but transient IFN-α production following pathogenic SIV infection. However, the data indicate that pDC activation and IFN-α production are unlikely to be major factors in driving immune activation in early infection. Based on these findings therapeutic strategies aimed at blocking pDC function and IFN-α production may not reduce HIV-associated immunopathology. © 2013 Kader et al

Background risk of breast cancer and the association between physical activity and mammographic density

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