Snow tussocks, chaos, and the evolution of mast seeding

One hitherto intractable problem in studying mast seeding (synchronous intermittent heavy flowering by a population of perennial plants) is determining the relative roles of weather, plant reserves, and evolutionary selective pressures such as predator satiation. We parameterize a mechanistic resource-based model for mast seeding in Chionochloa pallens (Poaceae) using a long-term individually structured data set. Each plant's energy reserves were reconstructed using annual inputs (growing degree days), outputs (flowering), and a novel regression technique. This allowed the estimation of the parameters that control internal plant resource dynamics, and thereby allowed different models for masting to be tested against each other. Models based only on plant size, season degree days, and/or climatic cues (warm January temperatures) fail to reproduce the pattern of autocovariation in individual flowering and the high levels of flowering synchrony seen in the field. This shows that resource-matching or simple cue-based models cannot account for this example of mast seeding. In contrast, the resource-based model pulsed by a simple climate cue accurately describes both individual-level and population-level aspects of the data. The fitted resource-based model, in the absence of environmental forcing, has chaotic (but often statistically periodic) dynamics. Environmental forcing synchronizes individual reproduction, and the models predict highly variable seed production in close agreement with the data. An evolutionary model shows that the chaotic internal resource dynamics, as predicted by the fitted model, is selectively advantageous provided that adult mortality is low and seeds survive for more than 1 yr, both of which are true for C. pallens. Highly variable masting and chaotic dynamics appear to be advantageous in this case because they reduce seed losses to specialist seed predators, while balancing the costs of missed reproductive events

A New Classification Of UK Local Authorities Using 2001 Census Key Statistics

The 2001 Census has been successfully administered and the Census Organisations are currently engaged in processing the returns. A very large and rich dataset will be produced for the 58,789,194 people of the UK. The Census Area Statistics, for example, delivers 190 tables containing about 6 thousand unique counts relating to the characteristics of the UK population, for output areas and all higher geographies. This paper represents the first results of a project that aims to develop, in collaboration with the Office for National Statistics, a set of general purpose classifications at different geographic scales, including households, neighbourhoods, wards, local authorities and to link the classifications at different levels together. The paper reports on the methods used and results of a classification of the UK’s 434 Local Authorities, using the Key Statistics released in February 2003. This initial classification and description of methods will feed into the ONS/GROS/NISRA project to classify Local Authorities for the whole UK. Further data or digital versions of the classification system are available on request

Creating the National Classification of Census Output Areas: Data, Methods and Results

The purpose of this paper is to describe and explain the processes and decisions that were involved in the creation of the National Area Classification of 2001 Census Output Areas (OAs). The project was carried out on behalf of the Office for National Statistics (ONS) by Daniel Vickers of the School of Geography, University of Leeds as part of his PhD. thesis. The paper describes the creation of the classification: selection of the variables, assembly of the classification database, the methods of standardisation and the clustering procedures, some discussion of alternative methodologies that were considered for use. The processes used for creating the clusters, their naming and description are outlined. The classification is mapped and visualised in a number of different ways. The OA Classification fits into the ONS suite of area classifications complementing published classifications at Local Authority, Health Authority and Ward levels. The classification is freely available, and can be downloaded from the ONS Neighbourhood Statistics website at www.statistics.gov.uk

Evolution of size-dependent flowering in Onopordum illyricum: A quantitative assessment of the role of stochastic selection pressures

We explore the evolution of delayed, size-dependent reproduction in the monocarpic perennial Onopordum illyricum, using a range of mathematical models, parameterized with long-term field data. Analysis of the long-term data indicated that mortality, flowering, and growth were age and size dependent. Using mixed models, we estimated the variance about each of these relationships and also individual-specific effects. For the held populations, recruitment was the main density-dependent process, although there were weak effects of local density on growth and mortality Using parameterized growth models, which assume plants grow along a deterministic trajectory, we predict plants should flower at sizes approximately 50% smaller than observed in the field. We then develop a simple criterion, termed the "1-yr look-ahead criterion," based on equating seed production now with that of next year, allowing for mortality and growth, to determine at what size a plant should flower. This model allows the incorporation of variance about the growth function and individual-specific effects. The model predicts flowering at sizes approximately double that observed, indicating that variance about the growth curve selects for larger sizes at flowering. The 1-yr look-ahead approach is approximate because it ignores growth opportunities more than 1 yr ahead. To assess the accuracy of this approach, we develop a more complicated dynamic state variable model. Both models give similar results indicating the utility of the 1-yr look-ahead criterion. To allow for temporal variation in the model parameters, we used an individual-based model with a generic algorithm. This gave very accurate prediction of the observed flowering strategies. Sensitivity analysis of the model suggested that temporal variation in the parameters of the growth equation made waiting to flower more risky, so selected for smaller sizes at flowering. The models clearly indicate the need to incorporate stochastic variation in life-history analyses

Afterglow lightcurves, viewing angle and the jet structure of gamma-ray bursts

Gamma ray bursts are often modelled as jet-like outflows directed towards the observer; the cone angle of the jet is then commonly inferred from the time at which there is a steepening in the power-law decay of the afterglow. We consider an alternative model in which the jet has a beam pattern where the luminosity per unit solid angle (and perhaps also the initial Lorentz factor) decreases smoothly away from the axis, rather than having a well-defined cone angle within which the flow is uniform. We show that the break in the afterglow light curve then occurs at a time that depends on the viewing angle. Instead of implying a range of intrinsically different jets - some very narrow, and others with similar power spread over a wider cone - the data on afterglow breaks could be consistent with a standardized jet, viewed from different angles. We discuss the implication of this model for the luminosity function.Comment: Corrected typo in Eq. 1

A model of the quasi-stellar radio variable CTA 102

Model of quasi-stellar radio source CTA 102 - flux density and red shift observation

Reionization from cosmic string loops

Loops formed from a cosmic string network at early times would act as seeds for early formation of halos, which would form galaxies and lead to early reionization. With reasonable guesses about astrophysical and string parameters, the cosmic string scale $G\mu$ must be no more than about $3\times 10^{-8}$ to avoid conflict with the reionization redshift found by WMAP. The bound is much stronger for superstring models with a small string reconnection probability. For values near the bound, cosmic string loops may explain the discrepancy between the WMAP value and theoretical expectations.Comment: 7 pp., RevTeX, no figure

Compton dragged gamma-ray bursts: the spectrum

We calculate the spectrum resulting from the interaction of a fireball with ambient soft photons. These photons are assumed to be produced by the walls of a funnel in a massive star. By parameterizing the radial dependence of the funnel temperature we calculate the deceleration of the fireball self-consistently, taking into account the absorption of high energy gamma-rays due to interaction with the softer ambient photons. The resulting spectrum is peaked at energies in agreement with observations, has a nu^2 slope in the X-ray band and a steep power-law high energy tail.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figures, accepted for publication in MNRAS, pink page

Internal Migration and Regional Population Dynamics in Europe: Romanian Case Study

The report analyses population migration and change in Romania over the period 1984-1994. The analysis of population change is conducted for 2948 communes and towns, the finest administrative division for which population data are available. The lack of migration data on the level of communes and towns makes in-depth analysis of the migration for small spatial units impossible. For that reason analysis of the patterns of migration is conducted for 40 Judete (also referred to as counties or regions) and the capital city of Bucharest, i.e. 41 units altogether. Council of Europe Publishing, F-67075 Strasbourg - Cedex, France

Internal Migration and Regional Population Dynamics in Europe: Finland Case Study

Both natural increase and internal migration have played roles in the shaping of population distribution of Finland since 1900. Far reaching recent changes in the economy have brought about massive shift of jobs from agriculture to manufacturing and services. As a result people have relocated from rural to urban areas. Both natural change and net migration have distinct geographical patterns, resulting in serious depopulation in remote areas in the east and north of the country. Internal migration benefits the south, the west, coastal areas, urban agglomerations and suburban areas. International migration is a marginal phenomenon in Finland and has little impact on population dynamics. Net migration losses in the past were offset by high natural increase and in recent decades Finnish emigrants have returned. Urban concentration is a dominant feature of the Finnish migration system. At the subregional level, suburbanisation is visible, but is not as strong as in the overcrowded metropolises of Western Europe. The relationships between migration and size of municipality, migration and population density and migration and urban/rural class of municipalities show that the process of concentration is the strongest force at work in shifting people to urban agglomerations and their suburban rings. Regional patterns of migration show strong transfers of population from north and east to south and to lesser extent to west of the country. The Baltic Sea coast has a strong attraction to migrants. Migration is sex-selective, with a much higher propensity of females to leave remote and rural areas and migrate to urban centres and the southern part of the country. The result is a significant gender imbalance: a deficiency of females in rural areas and in the north and east of the country and a surplus in urban and semi-urban areas. However, the economic indicator unemployment has a rather weak and imprecise effect on migrants