An assessment of PenSim2

The Department for Work and Pensions (DWP)’s Pensim2 model is a dynamic microsimulation model. The principal purpose of this model is to estimate the future distribution of pensioner incomes, thus enabling analysis of the distributional effects of proposed changes to pension policy. This paper presents the results of an assessment of Pensim2 by researchers at the IFS. We start by looking at the overall structure of the model, and how it compares with other dynamic policy analysis models across the world. We make recommendations at this stage as to how the overall modelling strategy could be improved. We then go on to analyse the characteristics of most of the individual modules which make up Pensim2, examining the data used and the regression and predictions used in each step. The results from this examination are used to formulate a set of short and medium-term recommendations for developing and improving the model. Finally, we look at what might become possible for the model over a much longer time frame – looking towards developing a ‘Pensim3’ model over the next decade or so

Trap Response of Michigan Social Wasps (Hymenoptera: Vespidae) to the Feeding Attractants Acetic Acid, Isobutanol, and Heptyl Butyrate.

Nine species of social wasps were captured in traps baited with acetic acid, isobutanol, heptyl butyrate and combinations of acetic acid and either isobutanol or heptyl butyrate. Three yellowjacket species in the Vespula rufa species group were captured in traps (Vespula acadica (Sladen), Vespula consobrina (Saussure), Vespula vidua (Saussure)). They responded similarly, with attraction only to heptyl butyrate. Three yellowjacket species in the Vespula vulgaris species group were also captured in traps (Vespula vulgaris (L.), Vespula flavorpilosa Jacobson, Vespula maculifrons (Buyyson)). They responded similarly, with attraction primarily to the combination of acetic acid and isobutanol. The bald-faced hornet, Dolichovespula maculata (L.), was attracted to acetic acid and was more strongly attracted to the combination of acetic acid and isobutanol. The aerial yellowjacket, Dolichovespula arenaria (Fabr.), was attracted to isobutanol, and was more strongly attracted to the combination of acetic acid and isobutanol. These results add to our understanding of how to target various species of social wasps with chemical lures

On the master equation approach to kinetic theory: linear and nonlinear Fokker--Planck equations

We discuss the relationship between kinetic equations of the Fokker-Planck type (two linear and one non-linear) and the Kolmogorov (a.k.a. master) equations of certain N-body diffusion processes, in the context of Kac's "propagation of chaos" limit. The linear Fokker-Planck equations are well-known, but here they are derived as a limit N->infty of a simple linear diffusion equation on (3N-C)-dimensional N-velocity spheres of radius sqrt(N) (with C=1 or 4 depending on whether the system conserves energy only or energy and momentum). In this case, a spectral gap separating the zero eigenvalue from the positive spectrum of the Laplacian remains as N->infty,so that the exponential approach to equilibrium of the master evolution is passed on to the limiting Fokker-Planck evolution in R^3. The non-linear Fokker-Planck equation is known as Landau's equation in the plasma physics literature. Its N-particle master equation, originally introduced (in the 1950s) by Balescu and Prigogine (BP), is studied here on the (3N-4)-dimensional N-velocity sphere. It is shown that the BP master equation represents a superposition of diffusion processes on certain two-dimensional sub-manifolds of R^{3N} determined by the conservation laws for two-particle collisions. The initial value problem for the BP master equation is proved to be well-posed and its solutions are shown to decay exponentially fast to equilibrium. However, the first non-zero eigenvalue of the BP operator is shown to vanish in the limit N->infty. This indicates that the exponentially fast approach to equilibrium may not be passed from the finite-N master equation on to Landau's nonlinear kinetic equation.Comment: 20 pages; based on talk at the 18th ICTT Conference. Some typos and a few minor technical fixes. Modified title slightl

Jahn-Teller effect versus Hund's rule coupling in C60N-

We propose variational states for the ground state and the low-energy collective rotator excitations in negatively charged C60N- ions (N=1...5). The approach includes the linear electron-phonon coupling and the Coulomb interaction on the same level. The electron-phonon coupling is treated within the effective mode approximation (EMA) which yields the linear t_{1u} x H_g Jahn-Teller problem whereas the Coulomb interaction gives rise to Hund's rule coupling for N=2,3,4. The Hamiltonian has accidental SO(3) symmetry which allows an elegant formulation in terms of angular momenta. Trial states are constructed from coherent states and using projection operators onto angular momentum subspaces which results in good variational states for the complete parameter range. The evaluation of the corresponding energies is to a large extent analytical. We use the approach for a detailed analysis of the competition between Jahn-Teller effect and Hund's rule coupling, which determines the spin state for N=2,3,4. We calculate the low-spin/high-spin gap for N=2,3,4 as a function of the Hund's rule coupling constant J. We find that the experimentally measured gaps suggest a coupling constant in the range J=60-80meV. Using a finite value for J, we recalculate the ground state energies of the C60N- ions and find that the Jahn-Teller energy gain is partly counterbalanced by the Hund's rule coupling. In particular, the ground state energies for N=2,3,4 are almost equal

Edge Currents for Quantum Hall Systems, I. One-Edge, Unbounded Geometries

Devices exhibiting the integer quantum Hall effect can be modeled by one-electron Schroedinger operators describing the planar motion of an electron in a perpendicular, constant magnetic field, and under the influence of an electrostatic potential. The electron motion is confined to unbounded subsets of the plane by confining potential barriers. The edges of the confining potential barrier create edge currents. In this, the first of two papers, we prove explicit lower bounds on the edge currents associated with one-edge, unbounded geometries formed by various confining potentials. This work extends some known results that we review. The edge currents are carried by states with energy localized between any two Landau levels. These one-edge geometries describe the electron confined to certain unbounded regions in the plane obtained by deforming half-plane regions. We prove that the currents are stable under various potential perturbations, provided the perturbations are suitably small relative to the magnetic field strength, including perturbations by random potentials. For these cases of one-edge geometries, the existence of, and the estimates on, the edge currents imply that the corresponding Hamiltonian has intervals of absolutely continuous spectrum. In the second paper of this series, we consider the edge currents associated with two-edge geometries describing bounded, cylinder-like regions, and unbounded, strip-like, regions.Comment: 68 page

A parallel VLSI architecture for a digital filter of arbitrary length using Fermat number transforms

A parallel architecture for computation of the linear convolution of two sequences of arbitrary lengths using the Fermat number transform (FNT) is described. In particular a pipeline structure is designed to compute a 128-point FNT. In this FNT, only additions and bit rotations are required. A standard barrel shifter circuit is modified so that it performs the required bit rotation operation. The overlap-save method is generalized for the FNT to compute a linear convolution of arbitrary length. A parallel architecture is developed to realize this type of overlap-save method using one FNT and several inverse FNTs of 128 points. The generalized overlap save method alleviates the usual dynamic range limitation in FNTs of long transform lengths. Its architecture is regular, simple, and expandable, and therefore naturally suitable for VLSI implementation

A VLSI pipeline design of a fast prime factor DFT on a finite field

A conventional prime factor discrete Fourier transform (DFT) algorithm is used to realize a discrete Fourier-like transform on the finite field, GF(q sub n). A pipeline structure is used to implement this prime factor DFT over GF(q sub n). This algorithm is developed to compute cyclic convolutions of complex numbers and to decode Reed-Solomon codes. Such a pipeline fast prime factor DFT algorithm over GF(q sub n) is regular, simple, expandable, and naturally suitable for VLSI implementation. An example illustrating the pipeline aspect of a 30-point transform over GF(q sub n) is presented

Trap Response of Michigan Social Wasps (Hymenoptera: Vespidae) to the Feeding Attractants Acetic Acid, Isobutanol, and Heptyl Butyrate.

Nine species of social wasps were captured in traps baited with acetic acid, isobutanol, heptyl butyrate and combinations of acetic acid and either isobutanol or heptyl butyrate. Three yellowjacket species in the Vespula rufa species group were captured in traps (Vespula acadica (Sladen), Vespula consobrina (Saussure), Vespula vidua (Saussure)). They responded similarly, with attraction only to heptyl butyrate. Three yellowjacket species in the Vespula vulgaris species group were also captured in traps (Vespula vulgaris (L.), Vespula flavorpilosa Jacobson, Vespula maculifrons (Buyyson)). They responded similarly, with attraction primarily to the combination of acetic acid and isobutanol. The bald-faced hornet, Dolichovespula maculata (L.), was attracted to acetic acid and was more strongly attracted to the combination of acetic acid and isobutanol. The aerial yellowjacket, Dolichovespula arenaria (Fabr.), was attracted to isobutanol, and was more strongly attracted to the combination of acetic acid and isobutanol. These results add to our understanding of how to target various species of social wasps with chemical lures