1,406 research outputs found
Detection of Outliers in Time Series.
As part of a SERC funded project this study aims to summarise the most relevant and recent literature with respect to outlier detection for time series and missing value estimation in traffic count data. Many types of transport data are collected over time and are potentlally suited to the application of time series analysis techniques. including accident data, ticket sales and traffic counts. Missing data or outliers in traffic counts can cause problems when analysing the data, for example in order to produce forecasts. At present it seems that little work has been undertaken to assess the merits of alternative methods to treat such data or develop a more analytic approach. Here we intend to review current practices in the transport field and summarise more general time series techniques for handling outlying or missing data.
The literature study forms the fist stage of a research project aiming to establish the applicability of time series and other techniques in estimating missing values and outlier detection/replacement in a variety of transport data. Missing data and outliers can occur for a variety of reasons, for example the breakdown of automatic counters. Initial enquiries suggest that methods for patching such data can be crude. Local authorities are to be approached individually usinga short questionnaire enquiry form in order to attempt to ascertain their current practices. Having reviewed current practices the project aims to transfer recently developed methods for dealing with outliers in general time series into a transport context. It is anticipated that comparisons between possible methods could highlight an alternative and more analytical approach to current practices. A description of the main methods ior detecting outliers in time series is given within the first section. In the second section practical applications of Box-Jenkins methods within a transport context are given. current practices for dealing with outlying and missing data within transport are discussed in section three. Recommendations for methods to be used in our current research are followed by the appendices containing most of the mathematical detail
High Speed Phase-Resolved 2-d UBV Photometry of the Crab pulsar
We report a phase-resolved photometric and morphological analysis of UBV data
of the Crab pulsar obtained with the 2-d TRIFFID high speed optical photometer
mounted on the Russian 6m telescope. By being able to accurately isolate the
pulsar from the nebular background at an unprecedented temporal resolution (1
\mu s), the various light curve components were accurately fluxed via
phase-resolved photometry. Within the range, our datasets are consistent
with the existing trends reported elsewhere in the literature. In terms of flux
and phase duration, both the peak Full Width Half Maxima and Half Width Half
Maxima decrease as a function of photon energy. This is similarly the case for
the flux associated with the bridge of emission. Power-law fits to the various
light curve components are as follows; \alpha = 0.07 \pm 0.19 (peak 1), \alpha
= -0.06 \pm 0.19 (peak 2) and \alpha = -0.44 \pm 0.19 (bridge) - the
uncertainty here being dominated by the integrated CCD photometry used to
independently reference the TRIFFID data. Temporally, the main peaks are
coincident to \le 10 \mu s although an accurate phase lag with respect to the
radio main peak is compromised by radio timing uncertainties. The plateau on
the Crab's main peak was definitively determined to be \leq 55 \mu s in extent
and may decrease as a function of photon energy. There is no evidence for
non-stochastic activity over the light curves or within various phase regions,
nor is there evidence of anything akin to the giant pulses noted in the radio.
Finally, there is no evidence to support the existence of a reported 60 second
modulation suggested to be as a consequence of free precession.Comment: 13 pages, 12 figures, accepted for publication in Astronomy &
Astrophysic
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Using Administrative Data to Count Local Populations
There is growing evidence that official population statistics based on the decennial census are inaccurate at the local authority level—the fundamental administrative unit of the UK. This paper investigates the use of locally available administrative data sets for counting populations. The method uses truth tables for combining different data sources with different population coverage according to a defined and therefore replicable set of rules. The result is timelier and geographically more flexible data which is more cost-effective to produce than a survey-based census. Associated techniques for linking diverse data sources at individual and household level are briefly discussed. The methodology is then applied to administrative data from a London borough with about 170,000 people. The results are evaluated and compared with other population sources. The paper concludes by discussing potential improvements including scaling up the work to cover multiple local authorities. The practicalities of using alternative central government data sets are briefly considered. A sequel paper in this journal provides examples of key applications of this approach at local level
Do agronomic approaches aligned to regenerative agriculture improve the micronutrient concentrations of edible portions of crops? A scoping review of evidence
Regenerative Agriculture (RA) is used to describe nature-based agronomic approaches that aim to build soil health and crop resilience, minimize negative environmental outcomes, and improve farmer livelihoods. A benefit that is increasingly attributed to crops grown under RA practices is improved nutritional content. However, we do not know the extent to which RA influences crop nutritional quality and under what management approaches and context, can such effects be realized. A scoping review of recent literature (Web of Science, 2000-2021) was carried out to assess the evidence that RA approaches improve crop micronutrient quality. Papers included combinations of agronomic approaches that could be defined as Regenerative: "Organic Inputs" including composts and manures, cover crops, crop rotations, crop residues and biochars; "Reduced Tillage", "Intercropping", "Biostimulants" e.g. arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi; plant growth promoting bacteria, and "Irrigation", typically deficit-irrigation and alternate wetting and drying. The crop types reviewed were predetermined covering common sources of food and included: Tomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.), Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.), Rice (Oryza sativa L.), Maize (Zea mays L.), Pulses (Fabaceae), Alliums (Allium spp.), and "other" crop types (30 types). This scoping review supports a potential role for RA approaches in increasing the concentrations of micronutrients in the edible portions of several crop types under specific practices, although this was context specific. For example, rice grown under increased organic inputs showed significant increases in grain zinc (Zn) concentration in 15 out of 16 studies. The vitamin C concentration of tomato fruit increased in similar to 50% of studies when plants were grown under increased organic inputs, and in 76% of studies when plants were grown under deficit irrigation. Overall, the magnitude and reproducibility of the effects of RA practices on most crop nutritional profiles were difficult to assess due to the diversity of RA approaches, geographical conditions, and the limited number of studies for most crops in each of these categories. Future research with appropriate designs, improved on-farm surveillance and nutritional diagnostics are needed for better understanding the potential role of RA in improving the quality of food, human nutrition, and health
Structure and elastic properties of Mg(OH) from density functional theory
The structure, lattice dynamics and mechanical properties of the magnesium
hydroxide have been investigated with static density functional theory
calculations as well as \it {ab initio} molecular dynamics. The hypothesis of a
superstructure existing in the lattice formed by the hydrogen atoms has been
tested. The elastic constants of the material have been calculated with static
deformations approach and are in fair agreement with the experimental data. The
hydrogen subsystem structure exhibits signs of disordered behaviour while
maintaining correlations between angular positions of neighbouring atoms. We
establish that the essential angular correlations between hydrogen positions
are maintained to the temperature of at least 150 K and show that they are well
described by a physically motivated probabilistic model. The rotational degree
of freedom appears to be decoupled from the lattice directions above 30K
H2O and the dehydroxylation of phyllosilicates: an infrared spectroscopic study
As shown by in situ infrared spectroscopy and analysis of quenched samples, phyllosilicates (muscovite, sericite, pyrophyllite, and talc) under dehydroxylation conditions lack the characteristic bands near 1600 cm–1 (bending) and 5200 cm–1 (combination) of H2O, and they contain virtually no H2O but an abundance of OH. This observation appears to be at variance with the formal description of dehydroxylation in bulk samples as 2(OH) -> H2O + O, whereas it is suggested that hydrogen diffuses in the form of (OH) – or/and H+ in dehydroxylation. The upper limit of H2O in the dehydroxlated bulk is likely to be at the parts per million level in phyllosilicates that contain structural OH ions equivalent to 4–5 wt% H2O. The observations suggest that H2O molecules are probably formed near the surface of the sample
Simulator sickness when performing gaze shifts within a wide field of view optic flow environment: preliminary evidence for using virtual reality in vestibular rehabilitation
BACKGROUND: Wide field of view virtual environments offer some unique features that may be beneficial for use in vestibular rehabilitation. For one, optic flow information extracted from the periphery may be critical for recalibrating the sensory processes used by people with vestibular disorders. However, wide FOV devices also have been found to result in greater simulator sickness. Before a wide FOV device can be used in a clinical setting, its safety must be demonstrated. METHODS: Symptoms of simulator sickness were recorded by 9 healthy adult subjects after they performed gaze shifting tasks to locate targets superimposed on an optic flow background. Subjects performed 8 trials of gaze shifting on each of the six separate visits. RESULTS: The incidence of symptoms of simulator sickness while subjects performed gaze shifts in an optic flow environment was lower than the average reported incidence for flight simulators. The incidence was greater during the first visit compared with subsequent visits. Furthermore, the incidence showed an increasing trend over the 8 trials. CONCLUSION: The performance of head unrestrained gaze shifts in a wide FOV optic flow environment is tolerated well by healthy subjects. This finding provides rationale for testing these environments in people with vestibular disorders, and supports the concept of using wide FOV virtual reality for vestibular rehabilitation
Offshore wind energy forecasting sensitivity to sea surface temperature input in the Mid-Atlantic
As offshore wind farm development expands, accurate wind resource forecasting over the ocean is needed. One important yet relatively unexplored aspect of offshore wind resource assessment is the role of sea surface temperature (SST). Models are generally forced with reanalysis data sets, which employ daily SST products. Compared with observations, significant variations in SSTs that occur on finer timescales are often not captured. Consequently, shorter-lived events such as sea breezes and low-level jets (among others), which are influenced by SSTs, may not be
correctly represented in model results. The use of hourly SST products may improve the forecasting of these events. In this study, we examine the
sensitivity of model output from the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) 4.2.1 to different SST products. We first evaluate three different
data sets: the Multiscale Ultrahigh Resolution (MUR25) SST analysis, a daily, 0.25∘ × 0.25∘ resolution product; the
Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Ice Analysis (OSTIA), a daily, 0.054∘ × 0.054∘ resolution product; and SSTs from
the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite 16 (GOES-16), an hourly, 0.02∘ × 0.02∘ resolution product. GOES-16 is not processed at the same level as OSTIA and MUR25; therefore, the product requires gap-filling using an interpolation method to create a complete map with no missing data points. OSTIA and GOES-16 SSTs validate markedly better against buoy observations than MUR25, so these two products are selected for use with model simulations, while MUR25 is at this point removed from consideration. We run the model for June and July of 2020 and find that for this time period, in the Mid-Atlantic, although OSTIA SSTs overall validate better against in situ observations taken via a buoy array in the area, the two products result in comparable hub-height (140 m) wind characterization performance on monthly timescales. Additionally, during hours-long flagged events (< 30 h each) that show statistically significant wind speed deviations between the two simulations, both simulations once again demonstrate similar validation performance (differences in bias, earth mover's distance, correlation, and root mean square error on the order of 10−1 or less), with GOES-16 winds validating nominally better than OSTIA winds. With a more refined GOES-16 product, which has been not only gap-filled but also assimilated with in situ SST measurements in the region, it is likely that hub-height winds characterized by GOES-16-informed simulations would definitively validate better than those informed by OSTIA SSTs.</p
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