A strategy to compute convective timescales of the Indian monsoon with the WRF model

The Indian monsoon brings around 80% of the annual rainfall over the summer months June--September to the Indian subcontinent. The timing of the monsoon onset and the associated rainfall has a large impact on agriculture, thus impacting the livelihoods of over one billion people. To improve forecasting the monsoon on sub-seasonal timescales, global climate models are in continual development. One of the key issues is the representation of convection, which is typically parametrised. Different convection schemes offer varying degrees of performance, depending on the model and scenario. Here, we propose a method to compute a convective timescale, which could be used as a metric for comparison across different models and convection schemes. The method involves the determination of a vertical convective flux between the lower and upper troposphere through moisture budget analysis, and then relating this to the total column moisture content. The method is applied to a WRF model simulation of the 2016 Indian monsoon, giving convective timescales that are reduced by a factor of 2 when the onset of the monsoon occurs. The convective timescale can also be used as an indicator of monsoon transitions from pre-onset to full phase of the monsoon, and to assess changes in monsoon phases under future climate scenarios.Comment: 21 pages, 9 Figures plus 10 Supplementary Figure

Controls on propagation of the Indian monsoon onset in an idealised model

The Indian monsoon is a seasonal large-scale circulation system with complex dynamical and thermodynamic interactions. The physical processes are not fully understood. In particular, the mechanisms that control the propagation of the monsoon onset across the Indian continent, against the mid-level wind field, are debated. The Indian monsoon is poorly represented in weather and climate models, with persistent systematic errors making it difficult to accurately forecast the Indian monsoon on subseasonal timescales. A two-layer model based on moisture conservation with a parameterised flux representing convection is developed and used to investigate the competition between dry advection in the upper levels, the rate of moisture replenishment at low levels and the rate of convection from the lower to the upper layers. In a fixed Eulerian frame, the system is initialised at an equilibrium representing pre-onset (May) conditions. Then, changes in the rates of moist inflow and upper level advection are introduced, triggering a transition to a new equilibrium, which reflects the full monsoon state (July-September). The two-layer model reproduces Indian monsoon onset and its progression to the northwest, against an imposed 5 m/s wind in the upper layer. Increasing the parameter representing moist inflow induces a monsoon onset, defined as a threshold of total column moisture, with clear progression from southeast toward northwest India. A lesser wind speed in the upper layer, signifying a weakening mid-tropospheric dry intrusion, allows a more rapid progression of the monsoon onset. A greater upper level wind speed, associated with a strengthening dry intrusion, causes the monsoon onset to retreat. We can quantify the nature of the monsoon onset by deriving an onset speed and the time taken for the system to adjust to a new equilibrium, from analytical theory