Overestimated prediction using polygenic prediction derived from summary statistics

Abstract Background When polygenic risk score (PRS) is derived from summary statistics, independence between discovery and test sets cannot be monitored. We compared two types of PRS studies derived from raw genetic data (denoted as rPRS) and the summary statistics for IGAP (sPRS). Results Two variables with the high heritability in UK Biobank, hypertension, and height, are used to derive an exemplary scale effect of PRS. sPRS without APOE is derived from International Genomics of Alzheimer’s Project (IGAP), which records ΔAUC and ΔR2 of 0.051 ± 0.013 and 0.063 ± 0.015 for Alzheimer’s Disease Sequencing Project (ADSP) and 0.060 and 0.086 for Accelerating Medicine Partnership - Alzheimer’s Disease (AMP-AD). On UK Biobank, rPRS performances for hypertension assuming a similar size of discovery and test sets are 0.0036 ± 0.0027 (ΔAUC) and 0.0032 ± 0.0028 (ΔR2). For height, ΔR2 is 0.029 ± 0.0037. Conclusion Considering the high heritability of hypertension and height of UK Biobank and sample size of UK Biobank, sPRS results from AD databases are inflated. Independence between discovery and test sets is a well-known basic requirement for PRS studies. However, a lot of PRS studies cannot follow such requirements because of impossible direct comparisons when using summary statistics. Thus, for sPRS, potential duplications should be carefully considered within the same ethnic group

Additional file 3 of Overestimated prediction using polygenic prediction derived from summary statistics

Additional file 3: Table S3. rPRS and sPRS results on A

Additional file 6 of Overestimated prediction using polygenic prediction derived from summary statistics

Additional file 6: Table S6. Performance comparisons between PRS and Lassosu

Additional file 4 of Overestimated prediction using polygenic prediction derived from summary statistics

Additional file 4: Table S4. PRS performance comparisons for hypertension in UK Bioban

Additional file 2 of Overestimated prediction using polygenic prediction derived from summary statistics

Additional file 2: Table S2. PRS performance after excluding genetically close individuals from the test se

Additional file 5 of Overestimated prediction using polygenic prediction derived from summary statistics

Additional file 5: Table S5. PRS performance comparisons for height in UK Bioban

Additional file 7 of Overestimated prediction using polygenic prediction derived from summary statistics

Additional file 7: Fig. S1. The number of test set subjects required to gain statistical significance (P < 0.01) for hypertension using UK Bioban

Bone marrow transplantation for adolescents and young adults with sickle cell disease: Results of a prospective multicenter pilot study.

We conducted a multicenter pilot investigation of the safety and feasibility of bone marrow transplantation (BMT) in adults with severe sickle cell disease (SCD) (NCT 01565616) using a reduced toxicity preparative regimen of busulfan (13.2 mg/kg), fludarabine (175 mg/m2 ) and thymoglobulin (6 mg/kg) and cyclosporine or tacrolimus and methotrexate for graft-vs-host disease (GVHD) prophylaxis. Twenty-two patients (median age 22 years; range 17-36) were enrolled at eight centers. Seventeen patients received marrow from an HLA-identical sibling donor and five patients received marrow from an 8/8 HLA-allele matched unrelated donor. Before BMT, patients had stroke, acute chest syndrome, recurrent pain events, were receiving regular red blood cell transfusions, or had an elevated tricuspid regurgitant jet (TRJ) velocity, which fulfilled eligibility criteria. Four patients developed grades II-III acute GVHD (18%) and six developed chronic GVHD (27%) that was moderate in two and severe in one patient. One patient died of intracranial hemorrhage and one of GVHD. Nineteen patients had stable donor chimerism, 1-year post-transplant. One patient who developed secondary graft failure survives disease-free after a second BMT. The one-year overall survival and event-free survival (EFS) are 91% (95% CI 68%-98%) and 86% (95% CI, 63%-95%), respectively, and 3-year EFS is 82%. Statistically significant improvements in the pain interference and physical function domains of health-related quality of life were observed. The study satisfied the primary endpoint of 1-year EFS ≥70%. This regimen is being studied in a prospective clinical trial comparing HLA-matched donor BMT with standard of care in adults with severe SCD (NCT02766465)

Bone marrow transplantation for adolescents and young adults with sickle cell disease: Results of a prospective multicenter pilot study.

We conducted a multicenter pilot investigation of the safety and feasibility of bone marrow transplantation (BMT) in adults with severe sickle cell disease (SCD) (NCT 01565616) using a reduced toxicity preparative regimen of busulfan (13.2 mg/kg), fludarabine (175 mg/m2 ) and thymoglobulin (6 mg/kg) and cyclosporine or tacrolimus and methotrexate for graft-vs-host disease (GVHD) prophylaxis. Twenty-two patients (median age 22 years; range 17-36) were enrolled at eight centers. Seventeen patients received marrow from an HLA-identical sibling donor and five patients received marrow from an 8/8 HLA-allele matched unrelated donor. Before BMT, patients had stroke, acute chest syndrome, recurrent pain events, were receiving regular red blood cell transfusions, or had an elevated tricuspid regurgitant jet (TRJ) velocity, which fulfilled eligibility criteria. Four patients developed grades II-III acute GVHD (18%) and six developed chronic GVHD (27%) that was moderate in two and severe in one patient. One patient died of intracranial hemorrhage and one of GVHD. Nineteen patients had stable donor chimerism, 1-year post-transplant. One patient who developed secondary graft failure survives disease-free after a second BMT. The one-year overall survival and event-free survival (EFS) are 91% (95% CI 68%-98%) and 86% (95% CI, 63%-95%), respectively, and 3-year EFS is 82%. Statistically significant improvements in the pain interference and physical function domains of health-related quality of life were observed. The study satisfied the primary endpoint of 1-year EFS ≥70%. This regimen is being studied in a prospective clinical trial comparing HLA-matched donor BMT with standard of care in adults with severe SCD (NCT02766465)