Dispersal and coastal geomorphology limit potential for mangrove range expansion under climate change

Latitudinal range limits for mangroves on high-energy, wave-dominated coasts are controlled by geomorphological features and estuarine dynamics. Mangroves reach a southern global range limit along the South African coastline, but the distribution is patchy, with stands occurring in only 16% of the estuaries in the region. Yet, the persistence of forests planted >50 years ago beyond the natural distribution limit suggests that additional estuaries could support mangroves. Understanding regional drivers is necessary to inform global-scale estimates for how this important ecosystem is predicted to respond to climate change

Dispersal and coastal geomorphology limit potential for mangrove range expansion under climate change

Latitudinal range limits for mangroves on high-energy, wave-dominated coasts are controlled by geomorphological features and estuarine dynamics. Mangroves reach a southern global range limit along the South African coastline, but the distribution is patchy, with stands occurring in only 16% of the estuaries in the region. Yet, the persistence of forests planted \u3e50 years ago beyond the natural distribution limit suggests that additional estuaries could support mangroves. Understanding regional drivers is necessary to inform global-scale estimates for how this important ecosystem is predicted to respond to climate change. Here, we combine species distribution modelling (MaxEnt), Lagrangian particle tracking using an eddy- and tide-resolving numerical ocean model, and connectivity matrices, to identify suitable mangrove habitats along the South African coastline at present, as well as under the IPCC RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. Within the current South African distribution range (±900 km), eight more estuaries were identified to be suitable under contemporary conditions. When considering potential range extension (±110 km), an additional 14 suitable estuaries were identified. Connectivity matrices suggest limited long-distance dispersal, stranding mostly at or near the release location, and a decreased probability of connectivity towards the range limit. Under both future climate scenarios, 30% of estuaries currently supporting mangroves are predicted to become unsuitable, while an additional six estuaries beyond the current distribution are predicted to become suitable. However, there is limited connectivity between these new sites and established forests. Synthesis. This study shows that dispersal substantially limits mangrove distribution at the southern African range limit and highlights the importance of including this process in species distribution models. Ultimately, our results provide new insight into mangrove conservation and management at range limits that are not controlled predominantly by temperature, as it has been assumed that mangroves will largely expand to higher latitudes under climate change

An Integrative Salt Marsh Conceptual Framework for Global Comparisons

Salt marshes occur globally across climatic and coastal settings, providing key linkages between terrestrial and marine ecosystems. However, salt marsh science lacks a unifying conceptual framework; consequently, historically well-studied locations have been used as normative benchmarks. To allow for more effective comparisons across the diversity of salt marshes, we developed an integrative salt marsh conceptual framework. We review ecosystem-relevant drivers from global to local spatial scales, integrate these multi-scale settings into a framework, and provide guidance on applying the framework using specific variables on 11 global examples. Overall, this framework allows for appropriate comparison of study sites by accounting for global, coastal, inter-, and intra-system spatial settings unique to each salt marsh. We anticipate that incorporating this framework into salt marsh science will provide a mechanism to critically evaluate research questions and a foundation for effective quantitative studies that deepen our understanding of salt marsh function across spatial scales

An integrative salt marsh conceptual framework for global comparisons

Salt marshes occur globally across climatic and coastal settings, providing key linkages between terrestrial and marine ecosystems. However, salt marsh science lacks a unifying conceptual framework; consequently, historically well-studied locations have been used as normative benchmarks. To allow for more effective comparisons across the diversity of salt marshes, we developed an integrative salt marsh conceptual framework. We review ecosystem-relevant drivers from global to local spatial scales, integrate these multi-scale settings into a framework, and provide guidance on applying the framework using specific variables on 11 global examples. Overall, this framework allows for appropriate comparison of study sites by accounting for global, coastal, inter-, and intra-system spatial settings unique to each salt marsh. We anticipate that incorporating this framework into salt marsh science will provide a mechanism to critically evaluate research questions and a foundation for effective quantitative studies that deepen our understanding of salt marsh function across spatial scales

Modern supratidal microbialites fed by groundwater: functional drivers, value and trajectories

Microbial mats were the dominant habitat type in shallow marine environments between the Palaeoarchean and Phanerozoic. Many of these (termed ‘microbialites’) calcified as they grew but such lithified mats are rare along modern coasts for reasons such as unsuitable water chemistry, destructive metazoan influences and competition with other reef-builders such as corals or macroalgae. Nonetheless, extant microbialites occur in unique coastal ecosystems such as the Exuma Cays, Bahamas or Lake Clifton and Hamelin Pool, Australia, where limitations such as calcium carbonate availability or destructive bioturbation are diminished. Along the coast of South Africa, extensive distributions of living microbialites (including layered stromatolites) have been discovered and described since the early 2000s. Unlike the Bahamian and Australian ecosystems, the South African microbialites form exclusively in the supratidal coastal zone at the convergence of emergent groundwater seepage. Similar systems were documented subsequently in southwestern Australia, Northern Ireland and the Scottish Hebrides, as recently as 2018, revealing that supratidal microbialites have a global distribution. This review uses the best-studied formations to contextualise formative drivers and processes of these supratidal ecosystems and highlight their geological, ecological and societal relevance

Chemical cues released by an alien invasive aquatic gastropod drive its invasion success.

BACKGROUND: Chemical cues provide aquatic organisms with sensory information that guides behavioural responses and thus interactions among themselves, each other and the environment. Chemical cues are considered important for predator avoidance, foraging, larval settlement and broadcast spawning in aquatic environments. However, the significance of their role as drivers of direct interactions between heterospecifics has been largely overlooked. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A video camera and a demarcated arena were used in situ to record behavioural responses of three native gastropod species, Assiminea cf. capensis, Melanoides tuberculata and Coriandria durbanensis, exposed to treatments representing chemical cues released by a non-native invasive gastropod, Tarebia granifera. The responses were measured quantitatively as displacement and orientation of movement at locations in St Lucia Estuary, within the iSimangaliso Wetland Park, a UNESCO World Heritage Site on the east coast of South Africa. All native gastropods exhibited a negative taxis response to chemical cues released by T. granifera, while T. granifera individuals responded randomly to conspecifics. Displacement was measured relative to the source of the extract, the number of steps taken were determined with path analysis and orientation was determined from the mean (±95% CIs) turning angles, with significant negative turning angles representing negative taxis. Responses to treatments corresponding to the environment and conspecifics were random and undirected, indicating kinesis. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: This study presents evidence for interactions driven by chemical cues between a non-native invasive gastropod and several gastropods native to South Africa. The results indicate that chemical cues can facilitate invasion success as the behavioural response of native gastropods is to move away allowing additional food and space resources to become available to T. granifera

Drivers of mangrove distribution at the high-energy, wave-dominated, southern African range limit

Mangrove distribution patterns at regional scales are influenced by additional factors besides temperature and rainfall regimes. This study identified abiotic drivers of mangrove area cover along the high-energy, wave-dominated coastline of South Africa. This is one of the southernmost locations globally for mangroves. A structural equation model (SEM) was used to delineate relationships between multiple variables that represented climatic and geomorphological drivers of current mangrove distribution patterns. Floodplain area, inlet stability, and the flow regime of the estuary were identified as significant predictors of mangrove area. The results of this study confirm that for this region mangrove distribution is controlled by coastal topographical features and estuarine dynamics rather than temperature minima. This is similar to other high-energy, wave-dominated coasts of Australia, Brazil, and New Zealand. Future research should, therefore, incorporate regional-scale factors that restrict current distributions as they could inform on potential limitations to expansion, particularly for southern hemisphere range limits.</p

Salt Marsh Restoration for the Provision of Multiple Ecosystem Services

Restoration of salt marsh is urgent, as these ecosystems provide natural coastal protection from sea-level rise impacts, contribute towards climate change mitigation, and provide multiple ecosystem services including supporting livelihoods. This study identified potential restoration sites for intervention where agricultural and degraded land could be returned to salt marsh at a national scale in South African estuaries. Overall, successful restoration of salt marsh in some estuaries will require addressing additional pressures such as freshwater inflow reduction and deterioration of water quality. Here, we present, a socio-ecological systems framework for salt marsh restoration that links salt marsh state and the well-being of people to guide meaningful and implementable management and restoration interventions. The framework is applied to a case study at the Swartkops Estuary where the primary restoration intervention intends to route stormwater run-off to abandoned salt works to re-create aquatic habitat for waterbirds, enhance carbon storage, and provide nutrient filtration. As the framework is generalized, while still allowing for site-specific pressures to be captured, there is potential for it to be applied at the national scale, with the largest degraded salt marsh areas set as priorities for such an initiative. It is estimated that ~1970 ha of salt marsh can be restored in this way, and this represents a 14% increase in the habitat cover for the country. Innovative approaches to restoring and improving condition are necessary for conserving salt marshes and the benefits they provide to society