An investigation into the performance of the Adjuvant! Online prognostic programme in early breast cancer for a cohort of patients in the United Kingdom

BACKGROUND: Adjuvant! Online is an internet-based computer programme providing 10-year prognosis predictions for early breast cancer patients. It was developed in the United States, has been successfully validated in Canada, and is used in the United Kingdom and elsewhere. This study investigates the performance of Adjuvant! in a cohort of patients from the United Kingdom. METHODS: Data on the prognostic factors and management of 1065 women with early breast cancer diagnosed consecutively at the Churchill Hospital in Oxford between 1986 and 1996 were entered into Adjuvant! to generate predictions of overall survival (OS), breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS), and event-free survival (EFS) at 10 years. Such predictions were compared with the observed 10-year outcomes of these patients. RESULTS: For the whole cohort, Adjuvant! significantly overestimated OS (by 5.54%, P<0.001), BCSS (by 4.53%, P<0.001), and EFS (by 3.51%, P=0.001). For OS and BCSS, overestimation persisted across most demographic, pathologic, and treatment subgroups investigated. Differences between Adjuvant! predicted and observed EFS appeared smaller, and were significant for far fewer subgroups, only 5 out of the 28. The likely explanation for such discordance is that US breast cancer mortality rates (upon which Adjuvant! is based) appear to be systematically lower than breast cancer mortality rates in the United Kingdom. Differences in survival after recurrence would seem to be one contributory factor, with data suggesting that prognosis after relapse appears poorer in the United Kingdom. This may reflect the fact that new and more effective cancer drugs are often only approved for use in the United Kingdom many years after their adoption in the United States. CONCLUSION: The use of Adjuvant! by clinicians within the UK National Health Service is increasing, under the assumption that the programme is transferrable to the United Kingdom. At least for women treated for breast cancer at the Churchill Hospital in Oxford, however, Adjuvant!'s predictions were on the whole overoptimistic. If the findings reported here could be shown to be generalisable to other areas of the United Kingdom, then thought should perhaps be given to the development of a UK-specific version of the programme

Docetaxel vs 5-fluorouracil plus vinorelbine in metastatic breast cancer after anthracycline therapy failure

This multicentre, randomised phase III study compared docetaxel with 5-fluorouracil+vinorelbine in patients with metastatic breast cancer after failure of neo/adjuvant or one line of palliative anthracycline-based chemotherapy. One hundred and seventy-six metastatic breast cancer patients were randomised to receive docetaxel (100 mg m−2) every 3 weeks or 5-fluorouracil+vinorelbine: 5-fluorouracil (750 mg m−2 per day continuous infusion) D1–5 plus vinorelbine (25 mg m−2) D1 and D5 of each 3-week cycle. Eighty-six patients received 516 cycles of docetaxel; 90 patients received 476 cycles of 5-fluorouracil+vinorelbine. Median time to progression (6.5 vs 5.1 months) and overall survival (16.0 vs 15.0 months) did not differ significantly between the docetaxel and 5-fluorouracil+vinorelbine arms, respectively. Six (7%) complete responses and 31 (36%) partial responses occurred with docetaxel (overall response rate 43%, 95% confidence interval: 32–53%), while 4 (4.4%) complete responses and 31 (34.4%) partial responses occurred with 5-fluorouracil+vinorelbine (overall response rate 38.8%, 95% confidence interval: 29–49%). Main grade 3–4 toxicities were (docetaxel vs 5-fluorouracil+vinorelbine): neutropenia 82% vs 67%; stomatitis 5% vs 40%; febrile neutropenia 13% vs 22%; and infection 2% vs 7%. There was one possible treatment-related death in the docetaxel arm and five with 5-fluorouracil+vinorelbine. In anthracycline-pretreated metastatic breast cancer patients, docetaxel showed comparable efficacy to 5-fluorouracil+vinorelbine, but was less toxic

Low levels of cathepsin D are associated with a poor prognosis in endometrial cancer

Total cytosolic cathepsin D (Cat D) levels were estimated by an immunoradiometric assay in a series of 156 consecutive patients with surgical stages I–III primary endometrial adenocarcinoma. Simultaneously, the tissue content of both oestrogen (ER) and progesterone (PR) receptors, and p185HER-2/neu, DNA content (ploidy), and the fraction of S-phase cells (S-phase) were also estimated. Tumoral Cat D content ranged from 0 to 243 pmol mg−1 protein (median 44 pmol mg−1 protein) and was not associated with any of the established clinicopathological and biological prognostic variables, with the exception of a weak positive correlation with the tumoral p185HER-2/neu levels. Univariable analysis performed on a subset of 97 patients, followed for a minimum of 2 years or until death, showed that patient age at diagnosis, high histological grade, advanced surgical stage, vascular invasion, positive peritoneal cytology, low levels of Cat D, negative ER and PR status, aneuploidy, and high S-phase were predictive of the presence of persistent or recurrent disease. However, multivariable analysis revealed that only histological grade, surgical stage, Cat D and PR were significantly associated with the patient's outcome. From these findings, we conclude that Cat D is an independent prognostic factor in endometrial adenocarcinoma, its low levels being associated with a worse clinical outcome. © 1999 Cancer Research Campaig

Identification of a low-risk subgroup of HER-2-positive breast cancer by the 70-gene prognosis signature

Backgroundoverexpression of HER-2 is observed in 15-25% of breast cancers, and is associated with increased risk of recurrence. Current guidelines recommend trastuzumab and chemotherapy for most HER-2-positive patients. However, the majority of patients does not recur and might thus be overtreated with adjuvant systemic therapy. We investigated whether the 70-gene MammaPrint signature identifies HER-2-positive patients with favourable outcome.Methodsin all, 168 T1-3, N0-1, HER-2-positive patients were identified from a pooled database, classified by the 70-gene signature as good or poor prognosis, and correlated with long-term outcome. A total of 89 of these patients did not receive adjuvant chemotherapy.Resultsin the group of 89 chemotherapy-naive patients, after a median follow-up of 7.4 years, 35 (39%) distant recurrences and 29 (33%) breast cancer-specific deaths occurred. The 70-gene signature classified 20 (22%) patients as good prognosis, with 10-year distant disease-free survival (DDFS) of 84%, compared with 69 (78%) poor prognosis patients with 10-year DDFS of 55%. The estimated hazard ratios (HRs) were 4.5 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.1-18.7, P=0.04) and 3.8 (95% CI 0.9-15.8, P=0.07) for DDFS and breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS), respectively. In multivariate analysis adjusted for known prognostic factors and hormonal therapy, HRs were 5.8 (95% CI 1.3-26.7, P=0.03) and 4.7 (95% CI 1.0-21.7, P=0.05) for DDFS and BCSS, respectively.Interpretationthe 70-gene prognosis signature is an independent prognostic indicator that identifies a subgroup of HER-2-positive early breast cancer with a favourable long-term outcome

Methodology of a novel risk stratification algorithm for patients with multiple myeloma in the relapsed setting

Introduction Risk stratification tools provide valuable information to inform treatment decisions. Existing algorithms for patients with multiple myeloma (MM) were based on patients with newly diagnosed disease, and these have not been validated in the relapsed setting or in routine clinical practice. We developed a risk stratification algorithm (RSA) for patients with MM at initiation of second-line (2L) treatment, based on data from the Czech Registry of Monoclonal Gammopathies. Methods Predictors of overall survival (OS) at 2L treatment were identified using Cox proportional hazards models and backward selection. Risk scores were obtained by multiplying the hazard ratios for each predictor. The K-adaptive partitioning for survival (KAPS) algorithm defined four groups of stratification based on individual risk scores. Results Performance of the RSA was assessed using Nagelkerke’s R2 test and Harrell’s concordance index through Kaplan–Meier analysis of OS data. Prognostic groups were successfully defined based on real-world data. Use of a multiplicative score based on Cox modeling and KAPS to define cut-off values was effective. Conclusion Through innovative methods of risk assessment and collaboration between physicians and statisticians, the RSA was capable of stratifying patients at 2L treatment by survival expectations. This approach can be used to develop clinical decision-making tools in other disease areas to improve patient management

The Impact of Thyroid Cancer and Post-Surgical Radioactive Iodine Treatment on the Lives of Thyroid Cancer Survivors: A Qualitative Study

BACKGROUND: Adjuvant treatment with radioactive iodine (RAI) is often considered in the treatment of well-differentiated thyroid carcinoma (WDTC). We explored the recollections of thyroid cancer survivors on the diagnosis of WDTC, adjuvant radioactive iodine (RAI) treatment, and decision-making related to RAI treatment. Participants provided recommendations for healthcare providers on counseling future patients on adjuvant RAI treatment. METHODS: We conducted three focus group sessions, including WDTC survivors recruited from two Canadian academic hospitals. Participants had a prior history of WDTC that was completely resected at primary surgery and had been offered adjuvant RAI treatment. Open-ended questions were used to generate discussion in the groups. Saturation of major themes was achieved among the groups. FINDINGS: There were 16 participants in the study, twelve of whom were women (75%). All but one participant had received RAI treatment (94%). Participants reported that a thyroid cancer diagnosis was life-changing, resulting in feelings of fear and uncertainty. Some participants felt dismissed as not having a serious disease. Some participants reported receiving conflicting messages from healthcare providers on the appropriateness of adjuvant RAI treatment or insufficient information. If RAI-related side effects occurred, their presence was not legitimized by some healthcare providers. CONCLUSIONS: The diagnosis and treatment of thyroid cancer significantly impacts the lives of survivors. Fear and uncertainty related to a cancer diagnosis, feelings of the diagnosis being dismissed as not serious, conflicting messages about adjuvant RAI treatment, and treatment-related side effects, have been raised as important concerns by thyroid cancer survivors

Morphometrical malignancy grading is a valuable prognostic factor in invasive ductal breast cancer

The aim of the present study is to augment the prognostic power of breast cancer grading by elaboration of quantitative histopathological methods. We focus on the recently introduced morphometrical grading system in which the three grading sub-features of the WHO grading system are evaluated with the help of computerised nuclear morphometry, and quantitative methods for assessing mitotic activity and tubular differentiation. The prognostic value of the morphometrical grading system is now confirmed in a material of 159 cases of invasive ductal breast cancer. In the current material the morphometrical grading system very efficiently predicted the prognosis of breast cancer by dividing the patients into favourable (grade I), intermediate (grade II), and unfavourable (grade III) outcome (P<0.0001). The morphometrical grading system was especially efficient in identifying patients with the most unfavourable outcome. In our material the morphometrical grade III was associated with a 5.4-fold risk of breast cancer death. In light of the present results, the morphometrical grading can be applied to clinical use as an aid in treatment decisions of patients with invasive ductal breast cancer

Long-term prognostic significance of HER-2/neu in untreated node-negative breast cancer depends on the method of testing

INTRODUCTION: The prognostic significance of HER-2/neu in breast cancer is a matter of controversy. We have performed a study in 101 node-negative breast cancer patients with long-term follow-up not treated in the adjuvant setting, and analysed the prognostic significance of immunohistochemistry (IHC) and fluorescence in situ hybridisation (FISH), both separately and in combination, in comparison with traditional prognostic factors. METHODS: Overexpression was classified semiquantitatively according to a score (0 to 3+) (HER-2_SCO). FISH was used to analyse HER2/neu amplification (HER-2_AMP). Patients classified 2+ by IHC were examined with FISH for amplification (HER-2_ALG). Patients with 3+ overexpression as well as amplification of HER-2/neu were positive for the combined variable HER2_COM. These variables were compared with tumour size, histological grade and hormone receptor status. RESULTS: HER-2_SCO was 3+ in 20% of all tumours. HER-2_ALG was positive in 22% and amplification (HER-2_AMP) was found in 17% of all tumours. Eleven percent of the tumours showed simultaneous 3+ overexpression and amplification. Only histological grade (relative risk [RR] 3.22, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.73–5.99, P = 0.0002) and HER-2_AMP (RR 2.47, 95% CI 1.12–5.48, P = 0.026) were significant for disease-free survival in multivariate analysis. For overall survival, both histological grade (RR 3.89, 95% CI 1.77–8.55, P = 0.0007) and HER-2_AMP (RR 3.08, 95% CI 1.24–7.66, P = 0.016) retained their independent significance. CONCLUSION: The prognostic significance of HER-2/neu in node-negative breast cancer depends on the method of testing: only the amplification of HER-2/neu is an independent prognostic factor for the long-term prognosis of untreated node-negative breast cancer

Predictive factor for the response to adjuvant therapy with emphasis in breast cancer

One of the major challenges of early-stage breast cancer is to select the adjuvant therapy that ensures the most benefits and the least harm for the patient. The definition of accurate predictive factors is therefore of paramount importance. So far the choice of adjuvant therapy has been based on the number of affected lymph nodes and the hormone receptor status of the patient. This paper evaluates the use of other tumor-related markers as predictive factors for adjuvant therapy. These include HER2, p53 and Bcl-2, cathepsin B, p27, proliferating cell nuclear antigen (PCNA), cyclin D, Ki-67, and vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF)