The role of oil prices and the real exchange rate in Russia‘s economy

Most people seem to think that Russia’s economy and fiscal situation are still crucially tied up with international oil prices and the exchange rate of the rouble, although this view has recently been challenged by some analysts. Empirical research on this topic is, however, scanty. In this paper, the impact of international oil prices and the real exchange rate on Russia's economy and fiscal policy is analysed using VAR methodology and cointegration techniques. The research period covered is 1995:Q1 – 2001:Q3. The results indicate that in the long run a 10% permanent increase (decrease) in international oil prices is associated with a 2.2% growth (fall) in the level of Russian GDP. Respectively, a 10% real apprecia-tion (depreciation) of the rouble is associated with a 2.4% decline (increase) in the level of output. These long-run equilibrium relationships also have a significant impact on short-run dynamics through an error-correction mechanism. The estimation results confirm also a strong dependence of fiscal revenues on output and oil price fluctuations. Estimated pa-rameters and diagnostic statistics do not indicate that Russia’s dependence on oil and the real exchange rate would somehow have weakened in recent years.Russian economy, fiscal policy, oil, real exchange rate, VAR, cointegration

The role of oil prices and the real exchange rate in Russia's economy

Most people seem to think that Russia's economy and fiscal situation are still crucially tied up with international oil prices and the exchange rate of the rouble, although this view has recently been challenged by some analysts. Empirical research on this topic is, however, scanty. In this paper, the impact of international oil prices and the real exchange rate on Russia's economy and fiscal policy is analysed using VAR methodology and cointegration techniques. The research period covered is 1995:Q1 - 2001:Q3. The results indicate that in the long run a 10% permanent increase (decrease) in international oil prices is associated with a 2.2% growth (fall) in the level of Russian GDP. Respectively, a 10% real appreciation (depreciation) of the rouble is associated with a 2.4% decline (increase) in the level of output. These long-run equilibrium relationships also have a significant impact on short-run dynamics through an error-correction mechanism. The estimation results confirm also a strong dependence of fiscal revenues on output and oil price fluctuations. Estimated parameters and diagnostic statistics do not indicate that Russia's dependence on oil and the real exchange rate would somehow have weakened in recent years.Russian economy; fiscal policy; oil; real exchange rate; VAR; cointegration

Do sentiment indicators help to assess and predict actual developments of the Chinese economy?

This paper evaluates the usefulness of business sentiment indicators for forecasting developments in the Chinese real economy. We use data on diffusion indices collected by the People’s Bank of China for forecasting industrial production, retail sales and exports. Our bivariate vector autoregressive models, each composed of one diffusion index and one real sector variable, generally outperform univariate AR models in forecasting one to four quarters ahead. Similarly, principal components analysis, combining information from various diffusion indices, leads to enhanced forecasting performance. Our results indicate that Chinese business sentiment indicators convey useful information about current and future developments in the real economy. They also suggest that the official data provide a fairly accurate picture of the Chinese economy.forecasting; diffusion index; VAR; China

Money, Barter and Inflation in Russia

Using a macroeconometric framework, this paper analyses relationships among money, barter and inflation in Russia during the transition period. Following the development of a theoretical framework that introduces barter in a standard small open economy macro model, we estimate our model using structural cointegration and vector error correction methods. Our findings suggest that barter has resulted partly from output losses and partly from a reduction in real money balances, but to a lesser extent. There is some evidence that the effect of barter on prices is less than that of money. We also find that increases in barter are affected by banking failure. Our results imply that a macro model that excludes barter fails to capture all the relevant information for inference on money and inflation in Russia.Barter, money, inflation, cointegration, error-correction mechanism, Russia

Money, Barter and Inflation in Russia

Using a macroeconometric framework, this paper analyses relationships among money, barter and inflation in Russia during the transition period. Following the development of a theoretical framework that introduces barter in a standard small open economy macro model, we estimate our model using structural cointegration and vector error correction methods. Our findings suggest that barter has resulted partly from output losses and partly from a reduction in real money balances, but to a lesser extent. There is some evidence that the effect of barter on prices is less than that of money. We also find that increases in barter are affected by banking failure. Our results imply that a macro model that excludes barter fails to capture all the relevant information for inference on money and inflation in Russia.barter; money; inflation; cointegration; error-correction mechanism; Russia

Russia of Challenges

In 2007 the Ministry of Defence conducted the research project Stable Russia – an evaluation of the security situation in Finland’s neighbourhood. The goal of the project was to paint an all-round picture of the factors affecting stability in Russia as well as possible destabilizing developments which could alter the security situation close to the Finnish borders. The project comprehensively tapped into Finnish Russia-expertise. This publication is based on the reports written for that project