Projected precipitation changes within the Great Lakes and Western Lake Erie Basin: a multi‐model analysis of intensity and seasonality

The Great Lakes region encompasses the largest freshwater lake network in the world and supports a diverse network of agriculture, transportation, and tourism. Recently, Lake Erie has experienced increased hypoxia events, which have been attributed to agricultural practices and changes in run‐off. Here we examine the projected changes in extreme precipitation events to address concerns regarding regional agriculture, surface run‐off, and subsequent water quality. Precipitation projections within the overall Great Lakes Basin and the Western Lake Erie Basin subregion are examined using climate model simulations of varying spatial resolutions to understand historical precipitation and projected future precipitation. We develop three model ensembles for the historical period (1980–1999) and the mid‐century (2041–2060) that cover a range of spatial resolutions and future emissions scenarios, including: (1) 12 global model members from the fifth Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) using Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, (2) ten regional climate model (RCM) members from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program driven by CMIP3 global models using the A2 emissions scenario, and (3) two high resolution RCM simulations (RCM4) driven by CMIP5 global models using the RCP 8.5 scenario. For the historical period, all model ensembles overestimate winter and spring precipitation, and many of the models simulate a summer drying that is not observed. At mid‐century, most of the models predict a 10–20% increase in precipitation depending on the time of year. Daily probability distribution functions from three model ensembles reveal spring seasonal increases in high precipitation event probabilities when compared to the historical period, suggesting an increase in the frequency of high intensity precipitation at mid‐century. Overall, the presence of lakes or higher spatial resolution does not ensure improved representation of historical processes, and more complex interactions between large‐scale dynamics, local feedbacks, and physical parameterizations drive the model spread.We examine extreme precipitation events in the Great Lakes and the Western Lake Erie Basin using global and regional climate model simulations of to understand historical precipitation and projected future mid‐century precipitation. At mid‐century, most models predict a 10–20% precipitation increase and an increase in the frequency of high intensity precipitation at mid‐century. The presence of lakes or higher spatial resolution does not ensure improved representation of precipitation and large‐scale dynamics, local feedbacks, and physical parameterizations drive the model spread.Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/139100/1/joc5128.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/139100/2/joc5128_am.pd

Domain choice in an experimental nested modeling prediction system for South America

The purposes of this paper are to evaluate the new version of the regional model, RegCM3, over South America for two test seasons, and to select a domain for use in an experimental nested prediction system, which incorporates RegCM3 and the European Community-Hamburg (ECHAM) general circulation model (GCM). To evaluate RegCM3, control experiments were completed with RegCM3 driven by both the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis (NNRP) and ECHAM, using a small control domain (D-CTRL) and integration periods of January–March 1983 (El Niño) and January–March 1985 (La Niña). The new version of the regional model captures the primary circulation and rainfall differences between the two years over tropical and subtropical South America. Both the NNRP-driven and ECHAM-driven RegCM3 improve the simulation of the Atlantic intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) compared to the GCM. However, there are some simulation errors. Irrespective of the driving fields, weak northeasterlies associated with reduced precipitation are observed over the Amazon. The simulation of the South Atlantic convergence zone is poor due to errors in the boundary condition forcing which appear to be amplified by the regional model. To select a domain for use in an experimental prediction system, sensitivity tests were performed for three domains, each of which includes important regional features and processes of the climate system. The domain sensitivity experiments were designed to determine how domain size and the location of the GCM boundary forcing affect the regional circulation, moisture transport, and rainfall in two years with different large scale conditions. First, the control domain was extended southward to include the exit region of the Andes low level jet (D-LLJ), then eastward to include the South Atlantic subtropical high (D-ATL), and finally westward to include the subsidence region of the South Pacific subtropical high and to permit the regional model more freedom to respond to the increased resolution of the Andes Mountains (D-PAC). In order to quantify differences between the domain experiments, measures of bias, root mean square error, and the spatial correlation pattern were calculated between the model results and the observed data for the seasonal average fields. The results show the GCM driving fields have remarkable control over the RegCM3 simulations. Although no single domain clearly outperforms the others in both seasons, the control domain, D-CTRL, compares most favorably with observations. Over the ITCZ region, the simulations were improved by including a large portion of the South Atlantic subtropical high (D-ATL). The methodology presented here provides a quantitative basis for evaluating domain choice in future studies

Future changes in snowmelt-driven runoff timing over the western US

We use a high-resolution nested climate model to investigate future changes in snowmelt-driven runoff (SDR) over the western US. Comparison of modeled and observed daily runoff data reveals that the regional model captures the present-day timing and trends of SDR. Results from an A2 scenario simulation indicate that increases in seasonal temperature of approximately 3° to 5°C resulting from increasing greenhouse gas concentrations could cause SDR to occur as much as two months earlier than present. These large changes result from an amplified snow-albedo feedback driven by the topographic complexity of the region, which is more accurately resolved in a high-resolution nested climate model. Earlier SDR could affect water storage in reservoirs and hydroelectric generation, with serious consequences for land use, agriculture, and water management in the American West

Regional Climate Model–Simulated Timing and Character of Seasonal Rains in South America

The potential of an experimental nested prediction system to improve the simulation of subseasonal rainfall statistics including daily precipitation intensity, rainy season onset and withdrawal, and the frequency and duration of dry spells is evaluated by examining a four-member ensemble of regional climate model simulations performed for the period 1982–2002 over South America. The study employs the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) regional climate model, version 3 (RegCM3), driven with the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis and the European Centre–Hamburg GCM, version 4.5. Statistics were examined for five regions: the northern Amazon, southern Amazon, the monsoon region, Northeast Brazil, and southeastern South America. RegCM3 and the GCM are able to replicate the distribution of daily rainfall intensity in most regions. The analysis of the rainy season timing shows the observed onset occurring first over the monsoon region and then spreading northward into the southern Amazon, in contrast to some previous studies. Correlations between the onset and withdrawal date and SSTs reveal a strong relationship between the withdrawal date in the monsoon region and SSTs in the equatorial Pacific, with above-average SSTs associated with late withdrawal. Over Northeast Brazil, the regional model errors are smaller than those shown by the GCM, and the strong interannual variability in the timing of the rainy season is better simulated by RegCM3. However, the regional model displays an early bias in onset and withdrawal over the southern Amazon and the monsoon regions. Both RegCM3 and the GCM tend to underestimate (overestimate) the frequency of shorter (longer) dry spells, although the differences in dry spell frequency during warm and cold ENSO events are well simulated. The results presented here show that there is potential for added value from the regional model in simulating subseasonal statistics; however, improvements in the physical parameterizations are needed for this tropical region

On Signatures of Atmospheric Features in Thermal Phase Curves of Hot Jupiters

Turbulence is ubiquitous in Solar System planetary atmospheres. In hot Jupiter atmospheres, the combination of moderately slow rotation and thick pressure scale height may result in dynamical weather structures with unusually large, planetary-size scales. Using equivalent-barotropic, turbulent circulation models, we illustrate how such structures can generate a variety of features in the thermal phase curves of hot Jupiters, including phase shifts and deviations from periodicity. Such features may have been spotted in the recent infrared phase curve of HD 189733b. Despite inherent difficulties with the interpretation of disk-integrated quantities, phase curves promise to offer unique constraints on the nature of the circulation regime present on hot Jupiters.Comment: 22 pages, 6 figures, 1 table, accepted for publication in Ap

CMIP5 Projected Changes in the Annual Cycle of Precipitation in Monsoon Regions

Analyses of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) experiments show that the global monsoon is expected to increase in area, precipitation, and intensity as the climate system responds to anthropogenic forcing. Concurrently, detailed analyses for several individual monsoons indicate a redistribution of rainfall from early to late in the rainy season. This analysis examines CMIP5 projected changes in the annual cycle of precipitation in monsoon regions, using a moist static energy framework to evaluate competing mechanisms identified to be important in precipitation changes over land. In the presence of sufficient surface moisture, the local response to the increase in downwelling energy is characterized by increased evaporation, increased low-level moist static energy, and decreased stability with consequent increases in precipitation. A remote mechanism begins with warmer oceans and operates on land regions via a warmer tropical troposphere, increased stability, and decreased precipitation. The remote mechanism controls the projected changes during winter, and the local mechanism controls the switch to increased precipitation during summer in most monsoon regions. During the early summer transition, regions where boundary layer moisture availability is reduced owing to decreases in evaporation and moisture convergence experience an enhanced convective barrier. Regions characterized by adequate evaporation and moisture convergence do not experience reductions in early summer precipitation.This enhanced convective barrier leads to a redistribution of rainfall from early to late summer, and is robust in the American and African monsoons but muddled in Asia. As described here, viewing monsoons from their inherent ties to the annual cycle could help to fingerprint changes as they evolve

RegCM3 regional climatologies for South America using reanalysis and ECHAM global model driving fields

To enable downscaling of seasonal prediction and climate change scenarios, long-term baseline regional climatologies which employ global model forcing are needed for South America. As a first step in this process, this work examines climatological integrations with a regional climate model using a continental scale domain nested in both reanalysis data and multiple realizations of an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM). The analysis presents an evaluation of the nested model simulated large scale circulation, mean annual cycle and interannual variability which is compared against observational estimates and also with the driving GCM for the Northeast, Amazon, Monsoon and Southeast regions of South America. Results indicate that the regional climate model simulates the annual cycle of precipitation well in the Northeast region and Monsoon regions; it exhibits a dry bias during winter (July–September) in the Southeast, and simulates a semi-annual cycle with a dry bias in summer (December–February) in the Amazon region. There is little difference in the annual cycle between the GCM and renalyses driven simulations, however, substantial differences are seen in the interannual variability. Despite the biases in the annual cycle, the regional model captures much of the interannual variability observed in the Northeast, Southeast and Amazon regions. In the Monsoon region, where remote influences are weak, the regional model improves upon the GCM, though neither show substantial predictability. We conclude that in regions where remote influences are strong and the global model performs well it is difficult for the regional model to improve the large scale climatological features, indeed the regional model may degrade the simulation. Where remote forcing is weak and local processes dominate, there is some potential for the regional model to add value. This, however, will require improvments in physical parameterizations for high resolution tropical simulations

Empirical and process-based approaches to climate-induced forest mortality models

Globally, forests store ~45% of carbon sequestered terrestrially, contribute more to the terrestrial sink per area than any other land cover type, and assimilate an important portion of anthropogenic emissions. Forests exert strong biophysical control on climate via surface energy balance, and the hydrological cycle. Widespread forest mortality in response to drought, increased temperatures, and infestation of tree pests has been observed globally, potentially threatening forests' regulation of climate. This threat has prompted great interest in understanding and predicting tree mortality due to climate variability and change, especially drought. Initial tests of hydraulic failure (mortality caused by irreversible loss of xylem conductivity from air embolism), carbon starvation (mortality due to carbohydrate limitation), insect attacks, wildfire, and their interdependence, suggest proximal causes of mortality are likely complex, co-occurring, interrelated, and variable with tree species. While the interdependent roles of carbon and water in plant mortality are consistently observed, this work is continuously prompting new questions

Toward Eclipse Mapping of Hot Jupiters

Recent Spitzer infrared measurements of hot Jupiter eclipses suggest that eclipse mapping techniques could be used to spatially resolve the day-side photospheric emission of these planets using partial occultations. As a first step in this direction, we simulate ingress/egress lightcurves for the three brightest known eclipsing hot Jupiters and evaluate the degree to which parameterized photospheric emission models can be distinguished from each other with repeated, noisy eclipse measurements. We find that the photometric accuracy of Spitzer is insufficient to use this tool effectively. On the other hand, the level of photospheric details that could be probed with a few JWST eclipse measurements could greatly inform hot Jupiter atmospheric modeling efforts. A JWST program focused on non-parametric eclipse map inversions for hot Jupiters should be actively considered.Comment: 32 pages, 6 figures, 3 tables, accepted for publication in Ap

Monsoon Responses to Climate Changes—Connecting Past, Present and Future

Purpose of Review: Knowledge of how monsoons will respond to external forcings through the twenty-first century has been confounded by incomplete theories of tropical climate and insufficient representation in climate models. This review highlights recent insights from past warm climates and historical trends that can inform our understanding of monsoon evolution in the context of an emerging energetic framework. Recent Findings: Projections consistent with paleoclimate evidence and theory indicate expanded/wetter monsoons in Africa and Asia, with continued uncertainty in the Americas. Twentieth century observations are not congruent with expectations of monsoon responses to radiative forcing from greenhouse gases, due to the confounding effect of aerosols. Lines of evidence from warm climate analogues indicate that while monsoons respond in globally coherent and predictable ways to orbital forcing and inter-hemispheric thermal gradients, there are differences in response to these forcings and also between land and ocean. Summary: Further understanding of monsoon responses to climate change will require refinement of the energetic framework to incorporate zonal asymmetries and the use of model hierarchies