Climate feedbacks in DICE-2013R: Modeling and empirical results

Climate feedback mechanisms that have the potential to intensify global warming have been omitted almost completely in the integrated assessment of climate change and the economy so far. With the present paper we try to narrow this gap in literature. We discuss different types of feedback mechanisms and show how to incorporate them into the mathematical setup of the well-known integrated assessment model DICE-2013R. Subsequently, we choose the permafrost carbon feedback (PCF) as specific application for an empirical analysis. We calibrate the parameters for our modified version of the DICE-2013R model and compute the optimal emission mitigation rates that maximize welfare accounting for the impact of the PCF. Finally, we quantify the economic losses resulting from a mitigation policy which ignores this feedback mechanism. Our empirical results generally indicate that accounting for the PCF leads to an increase in the optimal mitigation rates

Climate feedbacks in DICE-2013R - modeling and empirical results

Climate feedback mechanisms that have the potential to intensify global warming have been omitted almost completely in the integrated assessment of climate change and the economy so far. With the present paper we try to narrow this gap in literature. We discuss different types of feedback mechanisms and show how to incorporate them into the mathematical setup of the well-known integrated assessment model DICE-2013R. Subsequently, we choose the permafrost carbon feedback (PCF) as specific application for an empirical analysis. We calibrate the parameters for our modified version of the DICE-2013R model and compute the optimal emission mitigation rates that maximize welfare accounting for the impact of the PCF. Finally, we quantify the economic losses resulting from a mitigation policy which ignores this feedback mechanism. Our empirical results generally indicate that accounting for the PCF leads to an increase in the optimal mitigation rates

Pleistocene hypothesis – moving Savanna perceptual preference hypothesis beyond Savanna

We provide an extension of the Savanna perceptual preference hypothesis (“Savanna Hypothesis”), supposing that interaction with landscapes offering survival advantage for human groups during evolution might have gradually evolved to permanent landscape preferences. This additional support is based on the palaeoenvironmental analysis of the spread of modern humans into Europe in the late Pleistocene and their living environments there. Our hypothesis is that the preference for park-like landscapes after African savannas experienced a kind of “refreshment” in the Pleistocene. Thus, preferences for certain types of natural settings and scenes may have a more continuous evolutionary history than previously thought. The extended Savanna Hypothesis termed “Pleistocene Hypothesis” might stimulate further work on this important topic linking human evolution and human environmental preferences

Associations between blood glucose and carotid intima-media thickness disappear after adjustment for shared risk factors: the KORA F4 study.

The association between blood glucose and carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) is considered to be established knowledge. We aimed to assess whether associations between different measures of glycaemia and CIMT are actually independent of anthropometric variables and metabolic risk factors. Moreover, we checked published studies for the adjustment for shared risk factors of blood glucose and CIMT. Fasting glucose, 2-hour glucose, HbA1c, and CIMT were measured in 31-81-years-old participants of the population-based Cooperative Health Research in the Region of Augsburg (KORA) F4 study in Southern Germany (n = 2,663). CIMT was assessed according to the Rotterdam protocol. Linear and logistic regression models with adjustment for age, sex, anthropometric measures, hypertension, and dyslipidaemia were fitted to assess the association between continuous measures of glycaemia, and categories of glucose regulation, respectively, with CIMT. We found a 0.10 mm increase (95%-confidence interval: 0.08-0.12) in CIMT in subjects with compared to subjects without diabetes in crude analysis. This increase was not significant in age-sex adjusted models (p = 0.17). Likewise, neither impaired fasting glucose (p = 0.22) nor impaired glucose tolerance (p = 0.93) were associated with CIMT after adjustment for age, sex, and waist circumference. In multivariable adjusted models, age, sex, hypertension, waist circumference, HDL and LDL cholesterol, but neither fasting glucose nor 2-hour glucose nor HbA1c were associated with elevated CIMT. Literature findings are inconclusive regarding an independent association of glucose levels and CIMT. CIMT is highly dependent on traditional cardiovascular risk factors, but no relationships between blood glucose and CIMT were found after adjustment for age, sex, and anthropometric variables

Warmwasserereignisse im südöstlichen Atlantik [Abstract]

Rahmenthema: Klima in Wissenschaft und Anwendun

Das Ökosystemleistungskonzept in der räumlichen Planung: zehn Thesen

Das Konzept der Ökosystemleistungen kann helfen, Umsetzungsdefizite der räumlichen Planung zu bewältigen und den Schutz und die nachhaltige Nutzung von Natur und Landschaft zu fördern. Die vielfältigen Erkenntnisse zur Anwendung in Deutschland wurden bisher jedoch noch nicht systematisch zusammengebracht und ausgewertet. Der vorliegende Beitrag stellt Thesen für einen Einsatz des Konzepts der Ökosystemleistungen in der räumlichen Planung und für eine nachhaltige Raumentwicklung vor. Die Thesen führen den Stand des Wissens zusammen und geben Empfehlungen für den Einsatz in der Praxis und für weitere Forschung. Sie sind in drei thematische Bereiche gegliedert: Thesen zum generellen Nutzen des Konzepts, zu Hemmnissen und Potenzialen des Einsatzes wie der Anbindung an Planungsinstrumente sowie Thesen zu Handlungsbedarfen in Forschung und Planung. Sie sollen Wissenschaft und Praxis motivieren, das Konzept der Ökosystemleistungen in relevanten Planungskontexten einzusetzen, es für besseren Schutz und die nachhaltige Entwicklung von Natur und Landschaft zu nutzen und somit Transformationsprozesse zu einer nachhaltigen Entwicklung zu unterstützen

Ökosystemleistungen in der räumlichen Planung einsetzen: Chancen und Handlungsoptionen

Das Konzept der Ökosystemleistungen bietet eine Möglichkeit, um Natur und Landschaft zu schützen und nachhaltig zu nutzen. In Planungsprozessen kann es genutzt werden, um die Leistungen des Naturhaushaltes zu bewerten, mit anderen Interessen abzuwägen und transparentere Grundlagen für Entscheidungen bereitzustellen. Wenn Ökosystemleistungen als zentrale Bestandteile in Strategien der räumlichen Planung aufgenommen würden, könnten sie die Umsetzung und Wirkung der Planungen im Sinne des Ressourcenschutzes verbessern. Das vorliegende Positionspapier verdeutlicht anhand von zehn Thesen, wie das Konzept der Ökosystemleistungen in der räumlichen Planung genutzt werden kann. Der Arbeitskreis "Ökosystemleistungen in der räumlichen Planung" der ARL hat diese Empfehlungen erarbeitet und benennt zu den Themen "Nutzen", "Einsatzoptionen" und "Handlungsbedarfe" konkrete Ansätze für einen besseren Schutz von Natur und Landschaft. Die Thesen sollen dazu motivieren, das Konzept der Ökosystemleistungen in der Raumplanung einzusetzen und so Transformationsprozesse zu einer nachhaltigen räumlichen Entwicklung anzustoßen.The concept of ecosystem services represents an approach to support the protection and sustainable use of nature and landscapes. In planning processes, it can be used to assess the contributions ecosystems provide to human well-being, to weigh them against other interests, and to support transparent decision-making. If ecosystem services were central in spatial planning, they could improve the protection of natural resources. This position paper presents ten propositions that illustrate how the concept of ecosystem services can be used in spatial planning. The ARL working group "Ecosystem Services in Spatial Planning" has developed these recommendations and suggests specific approaches for better protection of nature and landscape. They address three topics: Benefits, Implementation options, and Actions required. The propositions shall motivate the implementation of the ecosystem services concept in spatial planning and initiate transformative processes towards sustainable spatial development