Geostatistical Model-Based Estimates of Schistosomiasis Prevalence among Individuals Aged ≤20 Years in West Africa

Schistosomiasis is a parasitic disease caused by a blood fluke that mainly occurs in Africa. Current prevalence estimates of schistosomiasis are based on historical data, and hence might be outdated due to control programs, improved sanitation, and water resources development and management (e.g., construction of large dams and irrigation systems). To help planning, coordination, and evaluation of control activities, reliable schistosomiasis prevalence estimates are needed. We analyzed compiled survey data from 1980 onwards for West Africa, including Cameroon, focusing on individuals aged ≤20 years. Bayesian geostatistical models were implemented based on environmental and climatic predictors to take into account potential spatial clustering within the data. We created the first smooth data-driven prevalence maps for Schistosoma mansoni and S. haematobium at high spatial resolution throughout West Africa. We found that an estimated 50.8 million West Africans aged ≤20 years are infected with schistosome blood flukes. Country prevalence estimates ranged between 0.5% (in The Gambia) and 37.1% (in Liberia) for S. mansoni and between 17.6% (in The Gambia) and 51.6% (in Sierra Leone) for S. haematobium. Our results allow prioritization of areas where interventions are needed, and to monitor and evaluate the impact of control activities