How a realistic magnetosphere alters the polarizations of surface, fast magnetosonic, and Alfvén waves

System-scale magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) waves within Earth's magnetosphere are often understood theoretically using box models. While these have been highly instructive in understanding many fundamental features of the various wave modes present, they neglect the complexities of geospace such as the inhomogeneities and curvilinear geometries present. Here, we show global MHD simulations of resonant waves impulsively excited by a solar wind pressure pulse. Although many aspects of the surface, fast magnetosonic (cavity/waveguide), and Alfvén modes present agree with the box and axially symmetric dipole models, we find some predictions for large-scale waves are significantly altered in a realistic magnetosphere. The radial ordering of fast mode turning points and Alfvén resonant locations may be reversed even with monotonic wave speeds. Additional nodes along field lines that are not present in the displacement/velocity occur in both the perpendicular and compressional components of the magnetic field. Close to the magnetopause, the perpendicular oscillations of the magnetic field have the opposite handedness to the velocity. Finally, widely used detection techniques for standing waves, both across and along the field, can fail to identify their presence. We explain how all these features arise from the MHD equations when accounting for a non-uniform background field and propose modified methods that might be applied to spacecraft observations

Validation of Model Forecasts of the Ambient Solar Wind

Independent and automated validation is a vital step in the progression of models from the research community into operational forecasting use. In this paper we describe a program in development at the CCMC to provide just such a comprehensive validation for models of the ambient solar wind in the inner heliosphere. We have built upon previous efforts published in the community, sharpened their definitions, and completed a baseline study. We also provide first results from this program of the comparative performance of the MHD models available at the CCMC against that of the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model. An important goal of this effort is to provide a consistent validation to all available models. Clearly exposing the relative strengths and weaknesses of the different models will enable forecasters to craft more reliable ensemble forecasting strategies. Models of the ambient solar wind are developing rapidly as a result of improvements in data supply, numerical techniques, and computing resources. It is anticipated that in the next five to ten years, the MHD based models will supplant semi-empirical potential based models such as the WSA model, as the best available forecast models. We anticipate that this validation effort will track this evolution and so assist policy makers in gauging the value of past and future investment in modeling support

Evaluating the Uncertainties in the Electron Temperature and Radial Speed Measurements Using White Light Corona Eclipse Observations

We examine the uncertainties in two plasma parameters from their true values in a simulated asymmetric corona. We use the Corona Heliosphere (CORHEL) and Magnetohydrodynamics Around the Sphere (MAS) models in the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) to investigate the differences between an assumed symmetric corona and a more realistic, asymmetric one. We were able to predict the electron temperatures and electron bulk flow speeds to within +/-0.5 MK and +/-100 km s(exp1), respectively, over coronal heights up to 5.0 R from Sun center.We believe that this technique could be incorporated in next-generation white-light coronagraphs to determine these electron plasma parameters in the low solar corona. We have conducted experiments in the past during total solar eclipses to measure the thermal electron temperature and the electron bulk flow speed in the radial direction in the low solar corona. These measurements were made at different altitudes and latitudes in the low solar corona by measuring the shape of the K-coronal spectra between 350 nm and 450 nm and two brightness ratios through filters centered at 385.0 nm/410.0 nm and 398.7 nm/423.3 nm with a bandwidth of is approximately equal to 4 nm. Based on symmetric coronal models used for these measurements, the two measured plasma parameters were expected to represent those values at the points where the lines of sight intersected the plane of the solar limb

Space Weather Products at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a US inter-agency activity aiming at research in support of the generation of advanced space weather models. As one of its main functions, the CCMC provides to researchers the use of space science models, even if they are not model owners themselves. The second CCMC activity is to support Space Weather forecasting at national Space Weather Forecasting Centers. This second activity involves model evaluations, model transitions to operations, and the development of space weather forecasting tools. Owing to the pace of development in the science community, new model capabilities emerge frequently. Consequently, space weather products and tools involve not only increased validity, but often entirely new capabilities. This presentation will review the present state of space weather tools as well as point out emerging future capabilities

How a realistic magnetosphere alters the polarizations of surface, fast magnetosonic, and Alfvén waves

Funding: MOA holds a UKRI (STFC / EPSRC) Stephen Hawking Fellowship EP/T01735X/1. DJS was supported by STFC grant ST/S000364/1. MDH was supported by NASA grant 80NSSC19K0127. A.N.W. was partially funded by STFC grant ST/N000609/1.System-scale magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) waves within Earth?s magnetosphere are often understood theoretically using box models. While these have been highly instructive in understanding many fundamental features of the various wave modes present, they neglect the complexities of geospace such as the inhomogeneities and curvilinear geometries present. Here we show global MHD simulations of resonant waves impulsively-excited by a solar wind pressure pulse. Although many aspects of the surface, fast magnetosonic (cavity/waveguide), and Alfvén modes present agree with the box and axially symmetric dipole models, we find some predictions for large-scale waves are significantly altered in a realistic magnetosphere. The radial ordering of fast mode turning points and Alfvén resonant locations may be reversed even with monotonic wave speeds. Additional nodes along field lines that are not present in the displacement/velocity occur in both the perpendicular and compressional components of the magnetic field. Close to the magnetopause the perpendicular oscillations of the magnetic field have the opposite handedness to the velocity. Finally, widely-used detection techniques for standing waves, both across and along the field, can fail to identify their presence. We explain how all these features arise from the MHD equations when accounting for a non-uniform background field and propose modified methods which might be applied to spacecraft observations.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

NASA GSFC CCMC Recent Model Validation Activities

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) holds the largest assembly of state-of-the-art physics-based space weather models developed by the international space physics community. In addition to providing the community easy access to these modern space research models to support science research, its another primary goal is to test and validate models for transition from research to operations. In this presentation, we provide an overview of the space science models available at CCMC. Then we will focus on the community-wide model validation efforts led by CCMC in all domains of the Sun-Earth system and the internal validation efforts at CCMC to support space weather servicesjoperations provided its sibling organization - NASA GSFC Space Weather Center (http://swc.gsfc.nasa.gov). We will also discuss our efforts in operational model validation in collaboration with NOAA/SWPC

Validation of Space Weather Models at Community Coordinated Modeling Center

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a multiagency partnership, which aims at the creation of next generation space weather modes. CCMC goal is to support the research and developmental work necessary to substantially increase space weather modeling capabilities and to facilitate advanced models deployment in forecasting operations. The CCMC conducts unbiased model testing and validation and evaluates model readiness for operational environment. The presentation will demonstrate the recent progress in CCMC metrics and validation activities

Real‐Time SWMF at CCMC: Assessing the Dst Output From Continuous Operational Simulations

The ground‐based magnetometer index of Dst is a commonly used measure of near‐Earth current systems, in particular the storm time inner magnetospheric current systems. The ability of a large‐scale, physics‐based model to reproduce, or even predict, this index is therefore a tangible measure of the overall validity of the code for space weather research and space weather operational usage. Experimental real‐time simulations of the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) are conducted at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC). Presently, two configurations of the SWMF are running in real time at CCMC, both focusing on the geospace modules, using the Block Adaptive Tree Solar wind‐type Roe Upwind Solver magnetohydrodynamic model, the Ridley Ionosphere Model, and with and without the Rice Convection Model. While both have been running for several years, nearly continuous results are available since April 2015. A 27‐month interval through July 2017 is used for a quantitative assessment of Dst from the model output compared against the Kyoto real‐time Dst. Quantitative measures are presented to assess the goodness of fit including contingency tables and a receiver operating characteristic curve. It is shown that the SWMF run with the inner magnetosphere model is much better at reproducing storm time values, with a correlation coefficient of 0.69, a prediction efficiency of 0.41, and Heidke skill score of 0.57 (for a −50‐nT threshold). A comparison of real‐time runs with and without the inner magnetospheric drift physics model reveals that nearly all of the storm time Dst signature is from current systems related to kinetic processes on closed magnetic field lines.Plain Language SummaryAs society becomes more dependent on technologies susceptible to adverse space weather, it is becoming increasingly critical to have numerical models capable of running in real time to nowcast/forecast the conditions in the near‐Earth space environment. One such model is available at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center and has been running for several years, allowing for an assessment of the quality of the result. Comparisons are made against globally compiled index of near‐Earth space storm activity, including numerous statistical quantities and tests. The skill of the model is remarkable, especially when a few hours after each of the cold restarts of the model are removed from the comparison. It is also shown that a global model alone is not that good at reproducing this storm index; a regional model for the inner part of geospace is necessary for good data‐model agreement.Key PointsThe SWMF model has been running in experimental real‐time mode at CCMC for several years, and all saved output is availableThe comparison against real‐time Dst is quite good, especially when a few hours after cold restarts are removed from the comparisonIt is necessary to include an inner magnetospheric drift physics model to reproduce Dst; a real‐time run without one does much worsePeer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/146631/1/swe20766.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/146631/2/swe20766_am.pd