Uncertainty in Fiscal and Monetary Policy and its Impact on Economic Growth: An Analysis from Pakistan

Uncertainty or shocks in macroeconomic policies have been a debated issue all over the world because these shocks severely influence the growth of economies. To analyze the impacts of these shocks in the context of Pakistan, the current study determined the role of fiscal and monetary policy uncertainty by taking the time series data for the period 1971-2020. In this regard, GARCH and ARDL cointegration model were applied. Empirical evidence revealed that in the long-run, fiscal uncertainty in terms of government expenditure positively affects the economy and monetary uncertainty in terms of money supply negatively affects the economy. While, in the short-run, uncertainty of both policies has a negative influence on the economic growth of Pakistan. The study also gauged other factors, such as, exchange rate, interest rate, and inflation with respect to their impact on economic growth. It was found that these factors positively and significantly sway growth in the long-run

Negative pressure wound therapy: eleven-year experience at a tertiary care hospital

Background: Management of complicated wounds is a reconstructive challenge. A reconstructive surgeon has to be ready to face new challenges every day. Negative pressure wound therapy has revolutionized the management of complex wounds. We are presenting our experience with this wound care modality in the past 11 years.Methods: It was a prospective study conducted from January 2006 to December 2016 on patients having wounds of varied etiologies, who consented to participate in this study. Custom made low cost NPWT was used till definitive wound closure.Results: A total of 568 patients consented to participate in the study during these 11 years. No major complications were seen. Most of these were males (60.73%) in their 3rd and 4th decade. Trauma was the leading cause of wounds in 38.14%, followed by diabetic foot wounds in 21.5%. Ankle and foot was the most common site of wounds (30.92%) followed by leg (24.01%). A total of 322 small, 218 medium and 97 large size dressings were used. Most of the patients improved with the NPWT.  No major complications were seen.Conclusions: NPWT is safe, effective and has proved to be revolutionary in managing difficult wounds. With the use of customized low cost NPWT the benefit can be extended to underprivileged population in under developed nations too

Reconstruction of soft tissue defects in Fournier’s gangrene at a tertiary care centre

Background: Fournier’s gangrene is an acute and potentially lethal multi-bacterial necrotizing infection that primarily involves the scrotum but may extend beyond its confines to perineum and abdominal wall. The disease may result in sepsis and death if treatment is delayed. Management consists of timely diagnosis, aggressive debridement, broad-spectrum antibiotics followed by reconstruction which still remains a surgical challenge.Methods: It is a prospective study conducted from Jan 2006 to Dec 2015 on 29 patients of Fournier’s gangrene who were referred to the department of Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery, Sheri-Kashmir Institute of Medical Sciences, Srinagar, Kashmir, for reconstruction after initial debridement by general surgeon/urologist. The patient’s age, predisposing factors, site and the size of the defects, reconstructive options used and outcome were evaluated. Assessment of testicular function was done at 6 months by sperm count and morphology.Results: A total of 29 patients of Fournier’s gangrene consisting of 28 males and one female were included in the study. The mean age was 37 years and the most common comorbidity was diabetes mellitus in 18 patients (62%). Wounds were allowed to heal by secondary intension in 8 patients. Scrotal advancement flap was done in seven patients. Split thickness skin grafting (STSG) of extensive wounds was done in 11 patients and testes were placed in medial thigh subcutaneous pocket in one patient. Two elderly diabetic patients succumbed to sepsis and multi organ failure. Overall complication rate was 18.5%.Conclusions: Thorough debridement and early wound cover are essential in the management of Fournier’s gangrene for successful rehabilitation. Various reconstructive options are available with no conclusive evidence to support flap rather than skin graft and most of the procedures result in preservation of testicular function in the long term

Closure of anterior palatal fistula using tongue flap: our experience

Background: Palatal fistula is one of the most common complications following cleft palate repair. It occurs mostly due to tip necrosis of palatal flaps. Small palatal fistulas are usually closed by transposition of adjacent tissues, however these local tissues are not sufficient for the closure of bigger fistulas. The tongue flap serves as a reliable and most easily obtainable local flap for closure of large sized palatal fistulas.Methods: This is a prospective study conducted from Aug 2006 to July 2015 in the department of Plastic & Reconstructive Surgery, SKIMS, Srinagar, Jammu Kashmir, India. A total of 25 patients with large anterior palatal fistula were treated using anteriorly based tongue flap. Patients were selected on the basis of size of fistula (> 1x1 cm), scarred local palatal tissue or history of fistula recurrence after previous attempts of closure using local palatal tissues.Results: In present study 25 patients of palatal fistula were treated using tongue flap. Eighty percent patients were in the age group of 3 to 5 years. Male-to-female ratio was 2:3. The largest dimension of treated fistula was 4x3 cm. There was partial dehiscence of flap suture line in two patients while remnant fistula was observed in three patients. None of our patients had flap necrosis.Conclusions: Tongue flap is an excellent and versatile option for closure of large palatal fistulas with high success rate and least morbidity

Two stage flexor tendon reconstruction in hand: our experience

Background: Flexor tendon injuries in the digital flexor sheath area (zone II) are the most difficult to treat and remain a focus of both clinical attention and basic investigations. This prospective study was designed to evaluate the results of staged zone II flexor tendon repair.Methods: Seventy digits in thirty five patients were treated by Two Stage flexor tendon reconstruction and followed for an average of one and a half year. The procedure included placing a silicone catheter (cut to desire size) as an active implant and reconstruction of A2, A4 or both pulleys if damaged in first stage. During the second stage (performed three to eight months later), tendon graft replaced the silicone catheter in the pseudo sheath formed around the catheter. The proximal end of the transplanted tendon was fixed with flexor digitorum profundus tendon of respective finger using the Pulvertaft method, and the distal end of the graft was fixedwith the distal stump of respective flexor digitorum profundus tendon. Early controlled motion protocol was instituted in all cases.Results: As per Buck Gramcko scale total active motion obtained was Excellent in 70%, Good in 20%, Fair in 7.1%, and Poor in 2.9% of patients.Conclusions: Flexor tendon reconstruction using two stage tendon reconstructions is an effective way to restore digital tendon function in delayed zone II flexor tendon injuries

An unusual case of frost bite autoamputation of toes

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Licens

Catalytic removal of Alizarin Red using chromium manganese oxide nanorods: degradation and kinetic studies

Dye removal through photocatalytic degradation employing nanomaterials as catalysts is a growing research area. In current studies, photocatalytic alizarin red (AR) dye degradation has been investigated by designing a series of Cr based manganese oxide nanomaterials (MH1–MH5). Synthesized nanomaterials were characterized by powder X-ray diffraction, scanning electron microscopy/energy dispersive x-ray, Brunauer–Emmett–Teller, and photoluminescence techniques and were utilized for photocatalytic AR dye degradation under UV light. AR dye degradation was monitored by UV–visible spectroscopy and percent degradation was studied for the effect of time, catalyst dose, different dye concentrations, and different pH values of dye solution. All the catalysts have shown more than 80% dye degradation exhibiting good catalytic efficiencies for dye removal. The catalytic pathway was analyzed by applying the kinetic model. A pseudo second-order model was found the best fitted kinetic model indicating a chemically-rate controlled mechanism. Values of constant R2 for all the factors studied were close to unity depicting a good correlation between experimental data

i-Propylammonium lead chloride based perovskite photocatalysts for depolymerization of lignin under UV light

Lignin depolymerization for the purpose of synthesizing aromatic molecules is a growing focus of research to find alternative energy sources. In current studies, the photocatalytic depolymerization of lignin has been investigated by two new iso-propylamine-based lead chloride perovskite nanomaterials (SK9 and SK10), synthesized by the facile hydrothermal method. Characterization was done by Powder X-Ray Diffraction (PXRD), Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM), UV-Visible (UV-Vis), Photoluminescence (PL), and Fourier-Transform Infrared (FTIR) Spectroscopy and was used for the photocatalytic depolymerization of lignin under UV light. Lignin depolymerization was monitored by taking absorption spectra and catalytic paths studied by applying kinetic models. The %depolymerization was calculated for factors such as catalyst dose variation, initial concentration of lignin, and varying temperatures. Pseudo-second order was the best suited kinetic model, exhibiting a mechanism for lignin depolymerization that was chemically rate controlled. The activation energy (Ea) for the depolymerization reaction was found to be 15 kJ/mol, which is remarkably less than conventional depolymerization of the lignin, i.e., 59.75 kJ/mol, exhibiting significant catalytic efficiencies of synthesized perovskites. Products of lignin depolymerization obtained after photocatalytic activity at room temperature (20 °C) and at 90 °C were characterized by GC-MS analysis, indicating an increase in catalytic lignin depolymerization structural subunits into small monomeric functionalities at higher temperatures. Specifically, 2-methoxy-4-methylphenol (39%), benzene (17%), phenol (10%) and catechol (7%) were detected by GC-MS analysis of lignin depolymerization products

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation