Profitability of a Hydro Power Producer Bidding in Multiple Markets - An Analysis of the Specific Case of Tokke-Vinje Hydro Power System

The main topic of this project has been to study the production scheduling of a hydro power producer exposed to the day-ahead, balancing and capacity market. The objective was to find what profit the producer may achieve by strategically bid in the above mentioned markets. A prototype model that undertakes this task has been developed by SINTEF Energy Research as a part of their project "Integrating Balancing Markets in Hydro Power Scheduling Methods". It is a multi-stage, multi-scenario, short-term deterministic model programmed in AMPL. To examine the potential profit a producer may gain by participating in the balancing market, the model has been run with and without the balancing market included in the simulation. The simulations have shown that a hydro power producer increases the expected income by participating in the balancing market. The model has been run with both Nordic and German day-ahead prices. The German day-ahead prices lead to even greater increase in profits when including the balancing market. The simulations have also benn done with higher price volatility, which resulted in a further increase in profits. Simulations have been done with different amounts of reserved capacity in the capacity market, with measures to reduce risk and with implementation to enforce acceptable reservoir behavior. The possibility of gathering profits from the capacity market proved to be limited. However, this conclusion is based on the prices that have been seen since the market was introduced in 2014 and may change if the prices rise

Profitability of a Hydro Power Producer Bidding in Multiple Power Markets

AbstractThe production scheduling of a hydro power producer exposed to the day-ahead, balancing and capacity market is examined to find what profit the producer may achieve by strategically bid in the above mentioned markets. Optimizing the bidding in multiple markets is expected to be increasingly important in the coming years as the share of renewable energy in the power system grows. A multi-stage, multi-scenario, short-term deterministic prototype model undertakes this task. The producer is assumed to be a price taker and is risk neutral. The results of the optimization have shown that a hydro power producer in the case-study area increases the expected income by participating in the balancing market. The results suggest that by utilizing the balancing market, the profit may increase by up to 5.86% per day, depending on the season. This is compared with the original income when bidding into the day-ahead market only. Furthermore, the simulations of future power prices have shown that profitability is expected to increase with price volatility. These findings underline the need to include balancing markets in production planning. The capacity market, RKOM, was also implemented. This market proved not to be profitable in this case study, but the conclusion might change if the future RKOM market price rise. Measures to reduce risk are also examined, creating valuable decision support to the producer

Med fare for at blive tabt mellem to stole: Forsvarsattachéerne som en integreret del af udetjenesten

Udenrigsministeriet har ikke længere monopol på dansk udenrigspolitik. Derimod ser vi et sektordiplomati i stigende vækst, hvor især forsvarsattachéembedet er højaktuelt i en tid, hvor de tektoniske plader i udenrigspolitikken flytter sig. Vi undersøger det ellers uudforskede danske forsvarsattachéembede. Dette gøres med et særlig fokus på de komplekse samarbejdsrelationer, der er vilkåret for forsvarsattachéen både ude på ambassaderne, men også i relationerne til Forsvarsministeriet, Forsvarskommandoen og Udenrigsministeriet. På trods af forskellige professioner og kulturforståelser fungerer samarbejdet i de fleste tilfælde godt. Som det oftest er i processer med mange forskelligartede aktører, kan der dog opstå misforståelser og videnstab. I en tid, hvor Danmark som småstat forsøger at bibeholde internationalt samarbejde og de diplomatiske dyder, er det vigtigt at tage pulsen på forsvarsattachévirket, så det kan indrettes således, at det bedst muligt kan være med til at fremme danske interesser

Evaluation of ICD-10 algorithms to identify hypopituitary patients in the Danish National Patient Registry

OBJECTIVE: Routinely collected health data may be valuable sources for conducting research. This study aimed to evaluate the validity of algorithms detecting hypopituitary patients in the Danish National Patient Registry (DNPR) using medical records as reference standard. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: Patients with International Classification of Diseases (10th edition [ICD-10]) diagnoses of hypopituitarism, or other diagnoses of pituitary disorders assumed to be associated with an increased risk of hypopituitarism, recorded in the DNPR during 2000–2012 were identified. Medical records were reviewed to confirm or disprove hypopituitarism. RESULTS: Hypopituitarism was confirmed in 911 patients. In a candidate population of 1,661, this yielded an overall positive predictive value (PPV) of 54.8% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 52.4–57.3). Using algorithms searching for patients recorded at least one, three or five times with a diagnosis of hypopituitarism (E23.0x) and/or at least once with a diagnosis of postprocedural hypopituitarism (E89.3x), PPVs gradually increased from 73.3% (95% CI: 70.6–75.8) to 83.3% (95% CI: 80.7–85.7). Completeness for the same algorithms, however, decreased from 90.8% (95% CI: 88.7–92.6) to 82.9% (95% CI: 80.3–85.3) respectively. Including data of hormone replacement in the same algorithms PPVs increased from 73.2% (95% CI: 70.6–75.7) to 82.6% (95% CI: 80.1–84.9) and completeness decreased from 94.3% (95% CI: 92.6–95.7) to 89.7% (95% CI: 87.5–91.6) with increasing records of E23.0x. CONCLUSION: The DNPR is a valuable data source to identify hypopituitary patients using a search criteria of at least five records of E23.0x and/or at least one record of E89.3x. Completeness is increased when including hormone replacement data in the algorithm. The consequences of misclassification must, however, always be considered

Galectin-3 and fibulin-1 in systolic heart failure:relation to glucose metabolism and left ventricular contractile reserve

Abstract Background Heart failure (HF) patients with diabetes (DM) have an adverse prognosis and reduced functional capacity, which could be associated with cardiac fibrosis, increased chamber stiffness and reduced left ventricular (LV) contractile reserve. Galectin-3 (Gal-3) and fibulin-1 are circulating biomarkers potentially reflecting cardiac fibrosis. We hypothesize that plasma levels of Gal-3 and fibulin-1 are elevated in HF patients with DM and are associated with reduced LV contractile reserve in these patients. Methods A total of 155 patients with HF with reduced ejection fraction underwent a low-dose dobutamine echocardiography and blood sampling for biomarker measurements. Patients were classified according to history of DM and an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) as: normal glucose tolerance (NGT) ( n \u2009=\u200970), impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) ( n \u2009=\u200925) and DM ( n \u2009=\u200960). Results Galectin-3 levels were elevated in DM patients as compared to non-diabetic patients ( P \u2009=\u20090.02), while higher fibulin-1 levels were observed in HF patients with IGF and DM ( P \u2009=\u20090.07). Reduced LV contractile reserve was associated with increasing Gal-3 levels (\u3b2\u2009=\u2009\u22120.19, P \u2009=\u20090.03) although, this association was attenuated after adjustment for estimated glomerular filtration rate ( P \u2009=\u20090.66). Fibulin-1 was not associated with LV contractile reserve ( P \u2009=\u20090.71). Conclusions Galectin-3 and fibulin-1 levels were elevated in HF patients with impaired glucose metabolism. However, reduced LV contractile reserve among HF patients with DM does not to have an independent impact on plasma Gal-3 and fibulin-1 levels