Predicting the burden of cancer in Switzerland up to 2025

Predicting the short-term evolution of the number of cancers is essential for planning investments and allocating health resources. The objective of this study was to predict the numbers of cancer cases and of the 12 most frequent cancer sites, and their age-standardized incidence rates, for the years 2019–2025 in Switzerland. Projections of the number of malignant cancer cases were obtained by combining data from two sources: forecasts of national age-standardized cancer incidence rates and population projections from the Swiss Federal Statistical Office. Age-standardized cancer incidence rates, approximating the individual cancer risk, were predicted by a low-order Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. The contributions of changes in cancer risk (epidemiological component) and population aging and growth (demographic components) to the projected number of new cancer cases were each quantified. Between 2018 and 2025, age-standardized cancer incidence rates are predicted to stabilize for men and women at around 426 and 328/100,000, respectively (<1% change). These projected trends are expected for most cancer sites. The annual number of cancers is expected to increase from 45,676 to 52,552 (+15%), more so for men (+18%) than for women (+11%). These increases are almost entirely due to projected changes in population age structure (+12% for men and +6% for women) and population growth (+6% for both sexes). The rise in numbers of expected cancers for each site is forecast to range from 4.15% (thyroid in men) to 26% (bladder in men). While ranking of the three most frequent cancers will remain unchanged for men (1st prostate, 2nd lung, 3rd colon-rectum), colorectal cancer will overtake by 2025 lung cancer as the second most common female cancer in Switzerland, behind breast cancer. Effective and sustained prevention measures, as well as infrastructural interventions, are required to counter the increase in cancer cases and prevent any potential shortage of professionals in cancer care delivery

Survival after bilateral breast cancer: results from a population-based study

Background: Controversy exists on the impact of bilaterality of breast cancer on survival. We used population-based data to compare survival of women with unilateral versus bilateral breast cancer. Patients and methods: At the Geneva cancer registry, we identified all 7,912 women diagnosed with invasive breast cancer between 1970 and 2002. Breast cancers were categorized as unilateral, synchronous bilateral (contralateral tumour diagnosed within six months after the first tumour) and metachronous bilateral (contralateral tumour diagnosed over six months after the first tumour). With multivariate modelling we compared characteristics and survival between women with unilateral and bilateral disease. Results: Patients with synchronous bilateral tumours (n=155, 2.0%) had more often lobular histology and less frequently stage I disease than women with unilateral disease. Women with metachronous breast cancer (n=219, 2.8%) received less often chemotherapy or hormone therapy for their first tumours. Ten-year disease-specific survival was similar (66%) after unilateral and metachronous bilateral breast cancer, but worse after synchronous bilateral cancer (51%). After adjustment, breast cancer mortality risks were not significantly increased for women with either synchronous or metachronous bilateral disease (Hazard ratios 1.1 (0.8-1.5) and 0.8 (0.5-1.4), respectively). Conclusion: This large population-based study indicates that bilaterality of breast cancer is not associated with impaired surviva

Patients' views about causes and preferences for the management of cancer-related fatigue—a case for non-congruence with the physicians?

Purpose: Cancer-related fatigue (CRF) is frequently overlooked. Adherence to treatment guidelines may be related to the patient's views about illness. This study aimed at exploring patients' views about CRF and determining whether they are congruent with best practice treatments. Methods: Data were collected in 160 consecutive patients hospitalized in a supportive care setting. Biological, clinical, and psychological variables were assessed using validated questionnaires. Patients were also asked to complete the Brief Fatigue Inventory (BFI) and a questionnaire investigating their main symptoms and views about CRF and its management. Results: Patients were mainly men (60%); median age was 66years. Various cancer diagnoses were represented; 17.5% had primary local diseases, 40% local recurrences, and 42.5% metastatic diseases. The majority of the patients experienced moderate or severe CRF (76.3%) on the BFI. Fatigue was the most frequently reported symptom (87.5%). Only anxiety, depression, and dimensions of quality of life were significantly related with CRF. Two thirds of the patients associated CRF with cancer-related morbidities. As for the best treatments, patients first stressed control of adverse effects. Over half of the patients were reluctant to report fatigue, mainly because they considered fatigue as an unavoidable side effect, but also because they feared a change towards less active/aggressive treatments. Conclusion: Patients mostly consider that CRF must be tolerated. Guidelines emphasize activity enhancement strategies as beneficial. The patients' preferences for rest rather than activity may be related to their high level of fatigue, which leads them to disregard activity as a possible treatmen

Characteristics and outcome of prostate cancer with PSA <4 ng/ml at diagnosis: a population-based study

Introduction: This population-based study aims to assess prognosis of prostate cancer diagnosed with prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels <4 ng/ml in routine care. Materials and methods: We compared prostate cancer patients with low PSA values (n=59) with other prostate cancer patients (n=1330) by logistic regression and the Cox model using data from the Geneva Cancer Registry. Results: Patients with low PSA values more frequently had early-stage and well differentiated tumours. Nevertheless, 35% presented with aggressive tumour characteristics or metastases. After adjustment for other prognostic factors, prostate cancer-specific mortality was similar for both groups (hazard ratio: 1.1; 95%CI: 0.6-2.2). Conclusion: We conclude that cancer with low PSA values at diagnosis is not indolen

Tumor Location of the Lower-Inner Quadrant Is Associated with an Impaired Survival for Women With Early-Stage Breast Cancer

Background: There is growing evidence that tumors of the inner quadrants (especially the lower-inner quadrant) metastasize more often to the internal mammary chain (IMC). As these metastases are not investigated, patients with lower-inner quadrant tumors have an increased risk of being under-staged and under-treated and may therefore have a higher risk of death from breast cancer. Methods: We identified all 1522 women operated for stage I breast cancer between 1984 and 2002 recorded at the population-based Geneva Cancer Registry. We compared breast cancer mortality risk by tumor location with multivariate Cox regression analysis that accounted for all factors linked to tumor location and survival. Results: Ten-year disease-specific survival was 93% (95%CI: 91-94%). Patients with breast cancer of the lower-inner quadrant (n=118; 7.8%) had an importantly increased risk of dying of breast cancer compared to women with breast cancer of the upper-outer quadrant (multiadjusted Hazard Ratio: 2.3, 95%CI: 1.1-4.5, P=0.0206). The over-mortality associated with this quadrant was particularly evident for tumors >10 mm (multiadjusted HR: 3.6, 95%CI: 1.6-7.9, P=0.0016). There was no increased breast cancer mortality risk for tumors located in other quadrants. Conclusions: Tumor location in the lower-inner quadrant is an independent and important prognostic factor of stage I breast cancer. Further research is needed to evaluate if the over-mortality of patients with stage I cancer of the lower-inner quadrant is indeed a result of under-treatment due to undetected IMC metastases. If so, patients with stage I breast cancer of the lower-inner quadrant are good candidates for systematic IMC investigatio

Risk of second breast cancer according to estrogen receptor status and family history

A recent study reported an increased risk of contralateral estrogen-negative breast cancer after a first primary estrogen-negative breast cancer. Our study aims to confirm this result and to evaluate how the risk of second breast cancer occurrence is affected by family history of breast cancer and anti-estrogen treatment. We included all 4,152 women diagnosed with breast cancer between 1995 and 2007, using data from the population-based Geneva Cancer Registry. We compared the incidence of second breast cancer among patients according to estrogen receptor (ER) status with that expected in the general population by age-period Standardized Incidence Ratios (SIRs). Among the cohort, 63 women developed second breast cancer. Patients with ER-positive first tumors had a decreased risk of second breast cancer occurrence (SIR: 0.67, 95% CI: 0.48-0.90), whereas patients with ER-negative primary tumors had an increased risk (SIR: 1.98, 95% CI: 1.19-3.09) limited to ER-negative second tumors (SIR: 7.94, 95% CI: 3.81-14.60). Patients with positive family history had a tenfold (SIR: 9.74, 95% CI: 3.57-21.12) higher risk of ER-negative second tumor which increased to nearly 50-fold (SIR: 46.18, 95% CI: 12.58-118.22) when the first tumor was ER-negative. Treatment with anti-estrogen decreased the risk of second ER-positive tumors but not ER-negative tumors. The risk of second ER-negative breast cancer is very high after a first ER-negative tumor, in particular among women with strong family history. Surveillance and prevention of second cancer occurrence should consider both ER status of the first tumor and family histor

Changing pattern of age-specific breast cancer incidence in the Swiss canton of Geneva

Hormone replacement therapy (HRT) use declined sharply after mid-2002, when the Women's Health Initiative trial reported an association between breast cancer occurrence and HRT. Hypothesized mechanism behind this association is that HRT promotes growth of pre-existing small tumors, leading to earlier tumor detection. We evaluated the impact of the sudden decline in HRT use on age distribution of breast cancer in Geneva. We included all incident breast cancer cases recorded from 1975 to 2006 at the Geneva cancer registry. We calculated mean annual incidence rates per 100,000 for 2year periods for three age groups and assessed temporal changes by joinpoint regression. We compared age-specific incidence curves for different periods, reflecting different prevalence rates of HRT use. After increasing constantly between 1986 and 2002 among women aged 50-69years [annual percent change (APC): +4.4, P<0.0001], rates declined sharply after 2003 (APC: −6.0; P=0.0264). Age-specific breast cancer rates changed dramatically with changes in prevalence of HRT use. During low HRT prevalence, breast cancer incidence increased progressively with age, when HRT prevalence was reaching its maximum (1995-2002), higher rates were seen in 60- to 64-year-old women, with a concomitant decrease in risk among elderly. After the sudden decline in HRT use, the incidence peak diminished significantly and incidence increased again with age. Following the abrupt decline in HRT use in Geneva, breast cancer incidence rates among post-menopausal women decreased considerably with striking changes in age-specific incidence rates before, during and after the peak in HRT prevalenc

Impact of obesity on diagnosis and treatment of breast cancer

In this population-based study, we evaluated the impact of obesity on presentation, diagnosis and treatment of breast cancer. Among all women diagnosed with invasive breast cancer in the canton Geneva (Switzerland) between 2003 and 2005, we identified those with information on body mass index (BMI) and categorized them into normal/underweight (BMI <25kg/m2), overweight (BMI ≥-<30kg/m2) and obese (BMI ≥30kg/m2) women. Using multivariate logistic regression, we compared tumour, diagnosis and treatment characteristics between groups. Obese women presented significantly more often with stage III-IV disease (adjusted odds ratio [ORadj]: 1.8, 95% CI: 1.0-3.3). Tumours ≥1cm and pN2-N3 lymph nodes were significantly more often impalpable in obese than in normal/underweight patients (ORadj 2.4, [1.1-5.3] and ORadj 5.1, [1.0-25.4], respectively). Obese women were less likely to have undergone ultrasound (ORadj 0.5, [0.3-0.9]) and MRI (ORadj 0.3, [0.1-0.6]) and were at increased risk of prolonged hospital stay (ORadj 4.7, [2.0-10.9]). This study finds important diagnostic and therapeutic differences between obese and lean women, which may impair survival of obese women with breast cancer. Specific strategies are needed to optimize the care of obese women with or at risk of breast cance

Occupational Factors and Socioeconomic Differences in Breast Cancer Risk and Stage at Diagnosis in Swiss Working Women.

Socioeconomic differences in breast cancer (BC) incidence are driven by differences in lifestyle, healthcare use and occupational exposure. Women of high socioeconomic status (SES) have a higher risk of BC, which is diagnosed at an earlier stage, than in low SES women. As the respective effects of occupation and SES remain unclear, we examined the relationships between occupation-related variables and BC incidence and stage when considering SES. Female residents of western Switzerland aged 18-65 years in the 1990 or 2000 census, with known occupation, were linked with records of five cancer registries to identify all primary invasive BC diagnosed between 1990 and 2014 in this region. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) were computed by occupation using general female population incidence rates, with correction for multiple comparisons. Associations between occupation factors and BC incidence and stage at diagnosis were analysed by negative binomial and multinomial logistic regression models, respectively. The cohort included 381,873 women-years and 8818 malignant BC, with a mean follow-up of 14.7 years. Compared with reference, three occupational groups predominantly associated with a high socioprofessional status had SIRs &amp;gt; 1: legal professionals (SIR = 1.68, 95%CI: 1.27-2.23), social science workers (SIR = 1.29; 95%CI: 1.12-1.49) and some office workers (SIR = 1.14; 95%CI: 1.09-1.20). Conversely, building caretakers and cleaners had a reduced incidence of BC (SIR = 0.69, 95%CI: 0.59-0.81). Gradients in BC risk with skill and socioprofessional levels persisted when accounting for SES. A higher incidence was generally associated with a higher probability of an early-stage BC. Occupation and SES may both contribute to differences in risk and stage at diagnosis of BC