Working Paper 10-10 - The long-term adequacy of the Belgian public pension system: An analysis based on the MIDAS model

This working paper describes the second version of MIDAS (an acronym for ‘Microsimulation for the Development of Adequacy and Sustainability'), a dynamic population model with dynamic cross-sectional ageing. This model simulates the life spans of individuals in the base dataset, including with their interactions, for the years between 2003 and 2060. It enables to produce, on that period, adequacy assessment of pensions in Belgium that is coherent with the baseline budgetary projections of the 2009 report of the Study Committee for Ageing realized by the Federal Planning Bureau's semi-aggregated MALTESE model. Indeed, MIDAS aligns its socio-economic and demographic projections and its macro-economic assumptions on the 2009 report of the Study Committee for Ageing. The adequacy of pensions is analysed through the replacement ratio, inequality measures among pensioners and poverty risk indicators of the elderly.Adequacy, Pensions, Microsimulation

Micro-Simulation of Social Security Reforms in Belgium

The present paper analyzes the budgetary impact of various Social Security reforms in the Belgian institutional setting. Our approach relies on parameters that were derived in Dellis et alii (2002) using a micro-modeling strategy. focusing our attention on a hypothetical age cohort, we illustrate the budgetary impact that the reforms considered might have on the budget of the federal government.

Working Paper 10-08 - The PLANET Model: Methodological Report

Freight and passenger transport model, Transport externalities

Le revenu des personnes âgées : la fin de l’âge d’or?

Actuellement les personnes âgées vivent un véritable âge d’or relativement à un passé récent. Leurs revenus moyens sont à peine plus bas que ceux d’autres classes d’âge. Dans ce groupe d’âge, les inégalités de revenus sont faibles. C’est aux systèmes de retraite que l’on doit cela. Cet article indique que si l’on prend en compte les di¤érences de longévité, le système de retraite apparaît moins redistributif. Ensuite, il s’interroge sur l’avenir de cet âge d’or. Il apparaît nettement qu’il disparaîtra rapidement si rien ne change : des taux de dépendance accrus — conséquence de la longévité croissante et des faibles taux de participation des travailleurs âgés — conduisent nécessairement à une réduction radicale des protections. En revanche, si l’âge de la retraite peut être relevé, les conséquences du vieillissement pourront être neutralisées.

Working Paper 22-10 - Toereikendheid van het pensioen en budgettaire kosten van de vergrijzing: evaluatie van beleidsmaatregelen en van alternatieve scenario’s

Statutory pensions, Adequacy, Microsimulation, Social security

What are the consequences of the AWG-projections for the adequacy of social security pensions? ENEPRI Research Report No. 65, 16 January 2009

This paper starts by describing the model MIDAS in detail. It next presents and discusses some simulation results for Belgium, Germany and Italy. Finally, the simulation results of two alternative policy scenarios are presented and discussed

Screening of the DNA mismatch repair genes MLH1, MSH2 and MSH6 in a Greek cohort of Lynch syndrome suspected families

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Germline mutations in the DNA mismatch repair genes predispose to Lynch syndrome, thus conferring a high relative risk of colorectal and endometrial cancer. The <it>MLH1, MSH2 </it>and <it>MSH6 </it>mutational spectrum reported so far involves minor alterations scattered throughout their coding regions as well as large genomic rearrangements. Therefore, a combination of complete sequencing and a specialized technique for the detection of genomic rearrangements should be conducted during a proper DNA-testing procedure. Our main goal was to successfully identify Lynch syndrome families and determine the spectrum of <it>MLH1</it>, <it>MSH2 </it>and <it>MSH6 </it>mutations in Greek Lynch families in order to develop an efficient screening protocol for the Greek colorectal cancer patients' cohort.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Forty-two samples from twenty-four families, out of which twenty two of Greek, one of Cypriot and one of Serbian origin, were screened for the presence of germline mutations in the major mismatch repair genes through direct sequencing and MLPA. Families were selected upon Amsterdam criteria or revised Bethesda guidelines.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Ten deleterious alterations were detected in twelve out of the twenty-four families subjected to genetic testing, thus our detection rate is 50%. Four of the pathogenic point mutations, namely two nonsense, one missense and one splice site change, are novel, whereas the detected genomic deletion encompassing exon 6 of the <it>MLH1 </it>gene has been described repeatedly in the LOVD database. The average age of onset for the development of both colorectal and endometrial cancer among mutation positive families is 43.2 years.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The mutational spectrum of the MMR genes investigated as it has been shaped by our analysis is quite heterogeneous without any strong indication for the presence of a founder effect.</p

Inégalité et pauvreté chez les personnes âgées: une projection à long terme

Cette contribution fournit une évaluation à long terme de l’adéquation du premier pilier de pension en Belgique. Suite à la participation accrue des femmes au marché du travail et à la revalorisation de certains minima sociaux, le taux de pauvreté des pensionnés devrait décroître fortement dans les prochaines décennies. Une analyse plus approfondie concernant l’impact de revalorisations récentes de minima sociaux met en lumière le rôle crucial de la revalorisation de la Grapa sur l’amélioration des indicateurs d’adéquation des pensions. A l’inverse, cette analyse n’escompte aucun effet positif sur ces mêmes indicateurs suite à la revalorisation du droit minimum par année de carrière. Abstract – This contribution provides à long term assessment of the first-pillar pension’s ade-quacy in Belgium. During the decades to come, the risk of financial poverty of the elderly would decrease considerably. This would mainly be the result of the increased labour participation rate of women, and an important increase of some key parameters of the pension system. This study focuses on the impact of two recent measures; the increase of the “guaranteed income of the elderly” (Grapa/IGO) by 14% in 2006, and the 17% increase of the minimum right per career year in the same year. The key result of the paper is that the first measure has been an important element in explaining the reduced risk of poverty among the elderly, whereas the impact of the second measure is negligible.status: publishe

Recent developments in dynamic microsimulation modeling for policy support: an application to Belgium

Presentation during the kick-off workshop of the EU-Progress project MiDLAS, organized at CEPS/INSTEAD, Luxembourgstatus: publishe