Trends and extremes of wave fields in the North-Eastern part of the Baltic Proper

The paper analyses one of the longest contemporary wave measurements in the northern Baltic Sea, performed at Almagrundet 1978–2003. This record contains the roughest instrumentally measured wave conditions (significant wave height = c. 7.8 m) in the northern Baltic Proper until December 2004. The data for the years 1979–95, the period for which the data are the most reliable, show a linear rising trend of 1.8% per annum in the average wave height. The seasonal variation in wave activity follows the variation in wind speed. The monthly mean significant wave height varies from 0.5 m in May–July to 1.3–1.4 m in December– January. No corrections have been made in the analysis to compensate for missing values, for their uneven distribution, or for ice cover

Systemic Vulnerability and Resilience Analysis of Electric and Transport Network Failure in Cases of Extreme Winter Storms

Extreme winter storms in northern regions bring heavy snowfall, strong winds and cold weather. Winter storms accumulate snow on power lines, causing damage, power outages and communication breakdowns. They may disrupt society’s normal interactions, especially in sparsely populated areas, due to snow-blocked roads, isolating people and preventing rescue operations in cases of emergency. In the worst cases, when the electricity is cut off for long time, many houses are at risk of rapid cooling. Hence, people are in danger of hypothermia if they cannot move or be evacuated to warm and safe places. Foreign visitors may be even more vulnerable because of language problems and different safety cultures, including e.g. not knowing how to dress properly for cold weather This paper presents part of the results of activities performed within the EU project CRISMA “Modelling crisis management for improved action and preparedness”. It shows how vulnerability analyses are produced in the case of an extreme winter storm in northern Finland. The analysis is based both on risk-hazard and socio-constructive approaches, combined to achieve the most effective results for the use of rescue services and regional planning authorities

A Framework for Comprehensive Impact Assessment in the Case of an ExtremeWinter Scenario, Considering Integrative Aspects of Systemic Vulnerability and Resilience

In northern regions, society can be seriously interrupted by a prolonged electricity network blackout due to a winter storm that cuts off power, communication and road networks. Due to hard winter weather it is essential to enhance the resilience of society to avoid danger to life. This can be achieved by developing new models to enhance preparedness for coming disaster events and to support rescue and other authorities to focus their resources on the most vulnerable targets in actual cases of emergencies. This paper presents a part of the results of activities performed within the EU project ‘CRISMA – Modelling crisis management for improved action and preparedness’. It focuses on improved resilience by proposing a framework for systemic vulnerability and impact analyses. The described work is conceptually based on risk-hazard and socio-constructive approaches. It is illustrated by means of a scenario consisting of a prolonged blackout together with an extreme winter storm in northern Finland. Scenario components include the integrative analysis of rapidly cooling houses and exposed vulnerable people as well as estimations of the potential costs of the crisis situation. The model can be extended to handle passable routes and the deployment of available rescue and snow ploughing equipment

A framework for comprehensive impact assessment in the case of an extreme winter scenario, considering integrative aspects of systemic vulnerability and resilience

In northern regions, society can be seriously interrupted by a prolonged electricity network blackout due to a winter storm that cuts off power, communication and road networks. Due to hard winter weather it is essential to enhance the resilience of society to avoid danger to life. This can be achieved by developing new models to enhance preparedness for coming disaster events and to support rescue and other authorities to focus their resources on the most vulnerable targets in actual cases of emergencies. This paper presents a part of the results of activities performed within the EU project ‘CRISMA – Modelling crisis management for improved action and preparedness’. It focuses on improved resilience by proposing a framework for systemic vulnerability and impact analyses. The described work is conceptually based on risk-hazard and socio-constructive approaches. It is illustrated by means of a scenario consisting of a prolonged blackout together with an extreme winter storm in northern Finland. Scenario components include the integrative analysis of rapidly cooling houses and exposed vulnerable people as well as estimations of the potential costs of the crisis situation. The model can be extended to handle passable routes and the deployment of available rescue and snow ploughing equipment