Platinum Availability for Future Automotive Technologies

Platinum is an excellent catalyst, can be used at high temperatures, and is stable in many aggressive chemical environments. Consequently, platinum is used in many current industrial applications, notably automotive catalytic converters, and prospective vehicle fuel cells are expected to rely upon it. Between 2005 and 2010, the automotive industry used approximately 40% of mined platinum. Future automotive industry growth and automotive sales shifts toward new technologies could significantly alter platinum demand. The potential risks for decreased platinum availability are evaluated, using an analysis of platinum market characteristics that describes platinum’s geophysical constraints, institutional efficiency, and dynamic responsiveness. Results show that platinum demand for an automotive fleet that meets 450 ppm greenhouse gas stabilization goals would require within 10% of historical growth rates of platinum supply before 2025. However, such a fleet, due largely to sales growth in fuel cell vehicles, will more strongly constrain platinum supply in the 2050 time period. While current platinum reserves are sufficient to satisfy this increased demand, decreasing platinum ore grade and continued concentration of platinum supply in a single geographic area are availability risk factors to platinum end-users

Strategic Materials in the Automobile: A Comprehensive Assessment of Strategic and Minor Metals Use in Passenger Cars and Light Trucks

A comprehensive component-level assessment of several strategic and minor metals (SaMMs), including copper, manganese, magnesium, nickel, tin, niobium, light rare earth elements (LREEs; lanthanum, cerium, praseodymium, neodymium, promethium, and samarium), cobalt, silver, tungsten, heavy rare earth elements (yttrium, europium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, holmium, erbium, thulium, ytterbium, and lutetium), and gold, use in the 2013 model year Ford Fiesta, Focus, Fusion, and F-150 is presented. Representative material contents in cars and light-duty trucks are estimated using comprehensive, component-level data reported by suppliers. Statistical methods are used to accommodate possible errors within the database and provide estimate bounds. Results indicate that there is a high degree of variability in SaMM use and that SaMMs are concentrated in electrical, drivetrain, and suspension subsystems. Results suggest that trucks contain greater amounts of aluminum, nickel, niobium, and silver and significantly greater amounts of magnesium, manganese, gold, and LREEs. We find tin and tungsten use in automobiles to be 3–5 times higher than reported by previous studies which have focused on automotive electronics. Automotive use of strategic and minor metals is substantial, with 2013 vehicle production in the United States, Canada, EU15, and Japan alone accounting for approximately 20% of global production of Mg and Ta and approximately 5% of Al, Cu, and Sn. The data and analysis provide researchers, recyclers, and decision-makers additional insight into the vehicle content of strategic and minor metals of current interest

Evaluating the Potential for Secondary Mass Savings in Vehicle Lightweighting

Secondary mass savings are mass reductions that may be achieved in supporting (load-bearing) vehicle parts when the gross vehicle mass (GVM) is reduced. Mass decompounding is the process by which it is possible to identify further reductions when secondary mass savings result in further reduction of GVM. Maximizing secondary mass savings (SMS) is a key tool for maximizing vehicle fuel economy. In today’s industry, the most complex parts, which require significant design detail (and cost), are designed first and frozen while the rest of the development process progresses. This paper presents a tool for estimating SMS potential early in the design process and shows how use of the tool to set SMS targets early, before subsystems become locked in, maximizes mass savings. The potential for SMS in current passenger vehicles is estimated with an empirical model using engineering analysis of vehicle components to determine mass-dependency. Identified mass-dependent components are grouped into subsystems, and linear regression is performed on subsystem mass as a function of GVM. A Monte Carlo simulation is performed to determine the mean and 5th and 95th percentiles for the SMS potential per kilogram of primary mass saved. The model projects that the mean theoretical secondary mass savings potential is 0.95 kg for every 1 kg of primary mass saved, with the 5th percentile at 0.77 kg/kg when all components are available for redesign. The model was used to explore an alternative scenario where realistic manufacturing and design limitations were implemented. In this case study, four key subsystems (of 13 total) were locked-in and this reduced the SMS potential to a mean of 0.12 kg/kg with a 5th percentile of 0.1 kg/kg. Clearly, to maximize the impact of mass reduction, targets need to be established before subsystems become locked in

Assessing Economic Modulation of Future Critical Materials Use: The Case of Automotive-Related Platinum Group Metals

Platinum-group metals (PGMs) are technological and economic enablers of many industrial processes. This important role, coupled with their limited geographic availability, has led to PGMs being labeled as “critical materials”. Studies of future PGM flows have focused on trends within material flows or macroeconomic indicators. We complement the previous work by introducing a novel technoeconomic model of substitution among PGMs within the automotive sector (the largest user of PGMs) reflecting the rational response of firms to changing prices. The results from the model support previous conclusions that PGM use is likely to grow, in some cases strongly, by 2030 (approximately 45% for Pd and 5% for Pt), driven by the increasing sales of automobiles. The model also indicates that PGM-demand growth will be significantly influenced by the future Pt-to-Pd price ratio, with swings of Pt and Pd demand of as much as 25% if the future price ratio shifts higher or lower even if it stays within the historic range. Fortunately, automotive catalysts are one of the more effectively recycled metals. As such, with proper policy support, recycling can serve to meet some of this growing demand

Evaluating Rare Earth Element Availability: A Case with Revolutionary Demand from Clean Technologies

The future availability of rare earth elements (REEs) is of concern due to monopolistic supply conditions, environmentally unsustainable mining practices, and rapid demand growth. We present an evaluation of potential future demand scenarios for REEs with a focus on the issue of comining. Many assumptions were made to simplify the analysis, but the scenarios identify some key variables that could affect future rare earth markets and market behavior. Increased use of wind energy and electric vehicles are key elements of a more sustainable future. However, since present technologies for electric vehicles and wind turbines rely heavily on dysprosium (Dy) and neodymium (Nd), in rare-earth magnets, future adoption of these technologies may result in large and disproportionate increases in the demand for these two elements. For this study, upper and lower bound usage projections for REE in these applications were developed to evaluate the state of future REE supply availability. In the absence of efficient reuse and recycling or the development of technologies which use lower amounts of Dy and Nd, following a path consistent with stabilization of atmospheric CO₂ at 450 ppm may lead to an increase of more than 700% and 2600% for Nd and Dy, respectively, over the next 25 years if the present REE needs in automotive and wind applications are representative of future needs