Evaluating Rare Earth
Element Availability: A Case
with Revolutionary Demand from Clean Technologies
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Abstract
The future availability of rare earth elements (REEs)
is of concern
due to monopolistic supply conditions, environmentally unsustainable
mining practices, and rapid demand growth. We present an evaluation
of potential future demand scenarios for REEs with a focus on the
issue of comining. Many assumptions were made to simplify the analysis,
but the scenarios identify some key variables that could affect future
rare earth markets and market behavior. Increased use of wind energy
and electric vehicles are key elements of a more sustainable future.
However, since present technologies for electric vehicles and wind
turbines rely heavily on dysprosium (Dy) and neodymium (Nd), in rare-earth
magnets, future adoption of these technologies may result in large
and disproportionate increases in the demand for these two elements.
For this study, upper and lower bound usage projections for REE in
these applications were developed to evaluate the state of future
REE supply availability. In the absence of efficient reuse and recycling or the development of technologies which use lower amounts of Dy and Nd, following a path consistent with stabilization of atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> at 450 ppm may lead to an increase of more than 700% and 2600% for Nd and Dy, respectively, over the next 25 years if the present REE needs in automotive and wind applications are representative of future needs