Wood resource dynamics in the Scandinavian forestry sector

The Scandinavian forestry sector is facing a major challenge. After a century of rapid growth - both in forestry and the forest products industry - the sector is approaching a situation where rapid growth will no longer be possible simply because most of the annual forest growth is already being utilized. One may choose to let the forces of the free market shape the transition from rapid growth to moderate growth. Or one may choose to pursue policies that are intended to improve the transition in one way or another. Wood Resource Dynamics (i.e. this volume) describes the historical background for the current situation, both concerning the supply of and demand for wood and concerning existing legislation and management practises. The volume further describes the problems caused by slow growth in the forestry sector, and a discussion of the various policies that can be conceived to soften these problems. A system dynamics simulation model was developed to elucidate the likely future effects of the various policies. The volume proceeds to illustrate how this computer simulation model of the Scandinavian forestry sector can be used in discussions of long term policy for the forestry sector. The general applicability of the simulation model is being demonstrated by adapting the model to the case of Finland. Finally, Wood Resource Dynamics gives a short introduction to the system dynamics method for model building by presenting two applications to concrete, short term problerns in the forestry sector - pulp inventory control and forest stand management

Greenhouse gas emissions per unit of value a corporate guide to voluntary climate action

How much must I reduce my greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions if I want to do my fair share to contribute towards the global effort to keep global warming below a 2 °C rise in average temperature over preindustrial times? This paper suggests an answer for nations and corporations that want to move ahead of legislation on a voluntary basis. If all nations reduce their “GHG emissions per unit of GDP” by 5% per year, global GHG emissions will be 50% lower in 2050 than in 2010 as long as the global economy continues to grow at its historical rate of 3.5% per year. The suggested 5% per year decline can be translated into a corporate resolution to reduce corporate “GHG emissions per unit of value added” (GEVA) by 5% per year. If all corporations cut their GEVA by 5% per year, the same global result will be achieved. The suggested 5% per year decline can be used as a guideline for responsible action on a voluntary basis. The guideline is unlikely to be made mandatory soon, but compulsory publication of the necessary emissions and productivity data by nations and corporations could help civil society highlight top performers

Conceptualizing dynamic models of social systems: lessons from a study of social change.

Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Alfred P. Sloan School of Management. Thesis. 1973. Ph.D.MICROFICHE COPY ALSO AVAILABLE IN DEWEY LIBRARY.Several pages numbered as leaves.Bibliography: p. 290-295.Ph.D

Meny 5: en vedtakbar klima- og energiplan for Norge til 2020

Denne artikkelen presenterer et forslag til en helhetlig klima- og energiplan for Norge til 2020. Planen består av seks klimagrep (tiltaksgrupper) som i sum vil sikre at man når Klimaforlikets mål om å redusere Norges klimagassutslipp med tolv millioner tonn CO2-ekvivalenter per år i 2020. Planen har fått navnet «Meny 5» og er laget med sikte på å være enkel å vedta i Stortinget. Meny 5 er et alternativ til den mer kompliserte, men kostnadseffektive, løsningen «Meny 1» som ble beskrevet i Klimakur 2020. De to menyene sammenlignes, ikke bare når det gjelder kostnad for og sektorfordeling av utslippsreduksjonene, men også når det gjelder energikonsekvensene. Artikkelen beskriver det resulterende utbyggingsbehov i energisektoren og understreker at energiutbyggingsbehovet bør oppfattes som en integrert del av enhver klimaplan. Planen er et innspill til den varslede klimameldingen og Stortingets behandling av denne i 2011-12

Grønn vekst i Norge mot 2050

Det er ikke én som må gjøre alt. Alle må gjøre litt. Individuelle initiativ er ikke nok. Her kreves kollektiv respons. Her er det ikke nok å gjøre sitt beste. Her må man gjøre det som trengs

An earth system model shows self-sustained melting of permafrost even if all man-made GHG emissions stop in 2020

The risk of points-of-no-return, which, once surpassed lock the world into new dynamics, have been discussed for decades. Recently, there have been warnings that some of these tipping points are coming closer and are too dangerous to be disregarded. In this paper we report that in the ESCIMO climate model the world is already past a point-of-no-return for global warming. In ESCIMO we observe self-sustained thawing of the permafrost for hundreds of years, even if global society stops all emissions of man-made GHGs immediately. We encourage other model builders to explore our discovery in their (bigger) models, and report on their findings. The thawing (in ESCIMO) is the result of a continuing self-sustained rise in the global temperature. This warming is the combined effect of three physical processes: (1) declining surface albedo (driven by melting of the Arctic ice cover), (2) increasing amounts of water vapour in the atmosphere (driven by higher temperatures), and (3) changes in the concentrations of the GHG in the atmosphere (driven by the absorption of CO2 in biomass and oceans, and emission of carbon (CH4 and CO2) from thawing permafrost). This self-sustained, in the sense of no further GHG emissions, thawing process (in ESCIMO) is a causally determined, physical process that evolves over time. It starts with the man-made warming up to the 1950s, leading to a rise in the amount of water vapour in the atmosphere—further lifting the temperature, causing increasing release of carbon from thawing permafrost, and simultaneously a decline in the surface albedo as the ice and snow covers melts. To stop the self-sustained warming in ESCIMO, enormous amounts of CO2 have to be extracted from the atmosphere

An earth system model shows self-sustained melting of permafost even if all man-made GHG emissions stop in 2020

The risk of points-of-no-return, which, once surpassed lock the world into new dynamics, have been discussed for decades. Recently, there have been warnings that some of these tipping points are coming closer and are too dangerous to be disregarded. In this paper we report that in the ESCIMO climate model the world is already past a point-of-no-return for global warming. In ESCIMO we observe self-sustained thawing of the permafrost for hundreds of years, even if global society stops all emissions of man-made GHGs immediately. We encourage other model builders to explore our discovery in their (bigger) models, and report on their findings. The thawing (in ESCIMO) is the result of a continuing self-sustained rise in the global temperature. This warming is the combined effect of three physical processes: (1) declining surface albedo (driven by melting of the Arctic ice cover), (2) increasing amounts of water vapour in the atmosphere (driven by higher temperatures), and (3) changes in the concentrations of the GHG in the atmosphere (driven by the absorption of CO2 in biomass and oceans, and emission of carbon (CH4 and CO2) from thawing permafrost). This self-sustained, in the sense of no further GHG emissions, thawing process (in ESCIMO) is a causally determined, physical process that evolves over time. It starts with the man-made warming up to the 1950s, leading to a rise in the amount of water vapour in the atmosphere—further lifting the temperature, causing increasing release of carbon from thawing permafrost, and simultaneously a decline in the surface albedo as the ice and snow covers melts. To stop the self-sustained warming in ESCIMO, enormous amounts of CO2 have to be extracted from the atmosphere

Som fanden leser bibelen : når SSB-økonomer leser Lavutslippsutvalgets rapport

Kommentar til artikkelen: Annegrete Bruvoll, Torstein Bye, Mads Greaker (2007): "Lavslippsutvalget: No limits to growth?”. Økonomisk forum, nr 2, 8 – 15. Tilsvar til denne artikkelen: Bye, T. og M. Greaker (2007): "Alfsen og Randers - misvisende kritikk". Økonomisk forum, nr 5, s. 9.Debatt om Lavutslippsutvalgets rapport NOU 2006:18 Et klimavennlig Norge