Examining Inferences from Neural Network Estimators of Binary Choice Processes: Marginal Effects, and Willingness-to-Pay

To satisfy the utility maximization hypothesis in binary choice modeling, logit and probit models must make a priori assumptions regarding the underlying functional form of a representative utility function. Such theoretical restrictions may leave the postulated estimable model statistically misspecified. This may lead to significant bias in substantive inferences, such as willingness-to-pay (or accept) measures, in environmental, natural resource and applied economic studies. Feed-forward back-propagation artificial neural networks (FFBANN) provide a potentially powerful semi-nonparametric method to avoid potential misspecifications and provide more valid inference. This paper shows that a single-hidden layer FFBANN can be interpreted as a logistic regression with a flexible index function and can be subsequently used for statistical inference purposes, such as estimation of marginal effects and willingness-to-pay measures. To the authors’ knowledge, the derivation and estimation of marginal effects and other substantive measures using neural networks are not available in the economics literature and is thus a novel contribution. An empirical application is conducted using FFBANNs to demonstrate estimation of marginal effects and willingness-to-pay in a contingent valuation and stated choice experimental framework. We find that FFBANNs can replicate results from binary choice models commonly used in the applied economics literature and can improve on substantive inferences derived from these models

Cavallo's Multiplier for in situ Generation of High Voltage

A classic electrostatic induction machine, Cavallo's multiplier, is suggested for in situ production of very high voltage in cryogenic environments. The device is suitable for generating a large electrostatic field under conditions of very small load current. Operation of the Cavallo multiplier is analyzed, with quantitative description in terms of mutual capacitances between electrodes in the system. A demonstration apparatus was constructed, and measured voltages are compared to predictions based on measured capacitances in the system. The simplicity of the Cavallo multiplier makes it amenable to electrostatic analysis using finite element software, and electrode shapes can be optimized to take advantage of a high dielectric strength medium such as liquid helium. A design study is presented for a Cavallo multiplier in a large-scale, cryogenic experiment to measure the neutron electric dipole moment.Comment: 9 pages, 10 figure

Advances in land-use and stated-choice modeling using neural networks and discrete-choice models

Doctor of PhilosophyDepartment of Agricultural EconomicsJason S. BergtoldJessica L. Heier StammApplied research in agricultural economics often involves a discrete process. Most commonly, these applications entail a conceptual framework, such as random utility, that describes a discrete-variable data-generating process. Assumptions in the conceptual framework then imply a particular empirical model. Common approaches include the binary logit and probit models and the multinomial logit when more than two outcomes are possible. Conceptual frameworks based on a discrete choice process have also been used even when the dependent variable of interest is continuous. In any case, the standard models may not be well suited to the problem at hand, as a result of either the assumptions they require or the assumptions they impose. The general theme of this dissertation is to adopt seldom-used empirical models to standard research areas in the field through applied studies. A common motivation in each paper is to lessen the exposure to specification concerns associated with more traditional models. The first paper is an attempt to provide insights into what --- if any --- weather patterns farmers respond to with respect to cropping decisions. The study region is a subset of 11 north-central Kansas counties. Empirically, this study adopts a dynamic multinomial logit with random effects approach, which may be the first use of this model with respect to farmer land-use decisions. Results suggest that field-level land-use decisions are significantly influenced by past weather, at least up to ten years. Results also suggest, however, that that short-term deviations from the longer trend can also influence land-use decisions. The second paper proposes multiple-output artificial neural networks (ANNs) as an alternative to more traditional approaches to estimating a system of acreage-share equations. To assess their viability as an alternative to traditional estimation, ANN results are compared to a linear-in-explanatory variables and parameters heteroskedastic and time-wise autoregressive seemingly unrelated regression model. Specifically, the two approaches are compared with respect to model fit and acre elasticities. Results suggest that the ANN is a viable alternative to a simple traditional model that is misspecified, as it produced plausible acre-response elasticities and outperformed the traditional model in terms of model fit. The third paper proposes ANNs as an alternative to the traditional logit model for contingent valuation analysis. With the correct network specifications, ANNs can be viewed as a traditional logistic regression where the index function has been replaced by a flexible functional form. The paper presents methods for obtaining marginal effect and willingness-to-pay (WTP) measures from ANNs, which has not been provided by the existing literature. To assess the viability of this approach, it is compared with the traditional logit and probit models as well an additional semi-nonparametric estimator with respect to model fit, marginal effects, and WTP estimates. Results suggest ANNs are viable alternative and may be preferable if misspecification of the index function is a concern

Field-Level Land-Use Adaptation to Local Weather Trends

The intersection of agriculture and climate has been well researched for at least the last couple of decades. Largely, the motivation for previous research has been the potential impact on food security for the world's (growing) population. Many studies have predicted unfavorable yield scenarios for some geographic regions. As a result, another common research theme is farmer adaptation to a changing climate. Typically, these studies are concerned with what farmers could or should do to adapt to adverse outcomes. However, research examining whether farmers respond to weather patterns has largely been ignored. Answering this question can help provide more accurate food security analyses: if farmers do respond to changing patterns through cropping decisions, for instance, the global food supply outcome will be different than a world in which they do not respond. This article aims to provide insights into what and how farmers' cropping decisions respond to weather patterns. The study region is a set of eleven Kansas counties. The article provides an important step toward more credible estimates of global food supplies under changing climates and the methods themselves translate to other areas. Results suggest that land-use responses to changing weather patterns will vary across time and space

Using Empirical Phase Diagrams to Understand the Role of Intramolecular Dynamics in Immunoglobulin G Stability

Understanding the relationship between protein dynamics and stability is of paramount importance to the fields of biology and pharmaceutics. Clarifying this relationship is complicated by the large amount of experimental data that must be generated and analyzed if motions that exist over the wide range of timescales are to be included. To address this issue, we propose an approach that utilizes a multidimensional vector-based empirical phase diagram (EPD) to analyze a set of dynamic results acquired across a temperature-pH perturbation plane. This approach is applied to a humanized immunoglobulin G1 (IgG1), a protein of major biological and pharmaceutical importance whose dynamic nature is linked to its multiple biological roles. Static and dynamic measurements are used to characterize the IgG and to construct both static and dynamic empirical phase diagrams. Between pH 5 and 8, a single, pH-dependent transition is observed that corresponds to thermal unfolding of the IgG. Under more acidic conditions, evidence exists for the formation of a more compact, aggregation resistant state of the immunoglobulin, known as A-form. The dynamics-based EPD presents a considerably more detailed pattern of apparent phase transitions over the temperature-pH plane. The utility and potential applications of this approach are discussed

SuperHERO: The Next Generation Hard X-ray HEROES Telescope

SuperHERO is a new high-sensitivity Long Duration Balloon (LDB)-capable, hard-x-ray (20-75 keV) telescope for making novel astrophysics and heliophysics observations. The proposed SuperHERO payload will be developed jointly by the Astrophysics Office at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, the Solar Physics Laboratory and Wallops Flight Facility at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. SuperHERO is a follow-on payload to the High Energy Replicated Optics to Explore the Sun (HEROES) balloon-borne telescope that recently launched from Fort Sumner, NM in September of 2013. The HEROES core instrument is a hard x-ray telescope consisting of x-ray 109 optics configured into 8 modules. Each module is aligned to a matching gas-filled detector at a focal length of 6 m. SuperHERO will make significant improvements to the HEROES payload, including: new solid-state multi-pixel CdTe detectors, additional optics, the Wallops Arc-Second Pointer, alignment monitoring systems and lighter gondola

Advanced Imaging and Receipt of Guideline Concordant Care in Women with Early Stage Breast Cancer

Objective. It is unknown whether advanced imaging (AI) is associated with higher quality breast cancer (BC) care. Materials and Methods. Claims and Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results data were linked for women diagnosed with incident stage I-III BC between 2002 and 2008 in western Washington State. We examined receipt of preoperative breast magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) or AI (defined as computed tomography [CT]/positron emission tomography [PET]/PET/CT) versus mammogram and/or ultrasound (M-US) alone and receipt of guideline concordant care (GCC) using multivariable logistic regression. Results. Of 5247 women, 67% received M-US, 23% MRI, 8% CT, and 3% PET/PET-CT. In 2002, 5% received MRI and 5% AI compared to 45% and 12%, respectively, in 2008. 79% received GCC, but GCC declined over time and was associated with younger age, urban residence, less comorbidity, shorter time from diagnosis to surgery, and earlier year of diagnosis. Breast MRI was associated with GCC for lumpectomy plus radiation therapy (RT) (OR 1.55, 95% CI 1.08–2.26, and p=0.02) and AI was associated with GCC for adjuvant chemotherapy for estrogen-receptor positive (ER+) BC (OR 1.74, 95% CI 1.17–2.59, and p=0.01). Conclusion. GCC was associated with prior receipt of breast MRI and AI for lumpectomy plus RT and adjuvant chemotherapy for ER+ BC, respectively

Exploring impulsive solar magnetic energy release and particle acceleration with focused hard X-ray imaging spectroscopy

How impulsive magnetic energy release leads to solar eruptions and how those eruptions are energized and evolve are vital unsolved problems in Heliophysics. The standard model for solar eruptions summarizes our current understanding of these events. Magnetic energy in the corona is released through drastic restructuring of the magnetic field via reconnection. Electrons and ions are then accelerated by poorly understood processes. Theories include contracting loops, merging magnetic islands, stochastic acceleration, and turbulence at shocks, among others. Although this basic model is well established, the fundamental physics is poorly understood. HXR observations using grazing-incidence focusing optics can now probe all of the key regions of the standard model. These include two above-the-looptop (ALT) sources which bookend the reconnection region and are likely the sites of particle acceleration and direct heating. The science achievable by a direct HXR imaging instrument can be summarized by the following science questions and objectives which are some of the most outstanding issues in solar physics (1) How are particles accelerated at the Sun? (1a) Where are electrons accelerated and on what time scales? (1b) What fraction of electrons is accelerated out of the ambient medium? (2) How does magnetic energy release on the Sun lead to flares and eruptions? A Focusing Optics X-ray Solar Imager (FOXSI) instrument, which can be built now using proven technology and at modest cost, would enable revolutionary advancements in our understanding of impulsive magnetic energy release and particle acceleration, a process which is known to occur at the Sun but also throughout the Universe