Public health research in the UK to understand and mitigate the impact of COVID-19 and COVID-19 response measures

This paper reflects concerns that funding and attention should be expanded from the important focus on those suffering and dying from COVID-19, and the safety and resources of healthcare professionals, to address wider questions on the (unequal) health and well-being impacts of COVID-19 and associated response measures. While immediate priorities such as those outlined in the WHO research agenda are undoubtedly important, additional urgent questions must be addressed. These include questions focused on (1) the non-virus impacts of preparing health and social care systems to cope with COVID-19 and (2) the health effects mediated by the educational, economic and social injuries sustained during the pandemic. Long-term, sustained and co-ordinated interdisciplinary research funding will be needed to address the long-lasting impacts of COVID-19 and its response measures

Prediction of cardiovascular disease risk by cardiac biomarkers in 2 United Kingdom cohort studies: does utility depend on risk thresholds for treatment?

We tested the predictive ability of cardiac biomarkers N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), high-sensitivity troponin T, and midregional pro adrenomedullin for cardiovascular disease (CVD) events using the British Regional Heart Study (BRHS) of men aged 60 to 79 years, and the MIDSPAN Family Study (MFS) of men and women aged 30 to 59 years. They included 3757 and 2226 participants, respectively, and during median 13.0 and 17.3 years follow-up the primary CVD event rates were 16.6 and 5.3 per 1000 patient-years, respectively. In Cox models adjusted for basic classical risk factors, 1 SD increases in log-transformed NT-proBNP, high-sensitivity troponin T, and midregional pro adrenomedullin were generally associated with increased primary CVD risk in both the studies (P<0.006) except midregional pro adrenomedullin in MFS (P=0.10). In BRHS, QRISK2 risk factors yielded a C-index of 0.657, which was improved by 0.017 (P=0.005) by NT-proBNP, but not by other biomarkers. Using 28% 14-year risk as a proxy for 20% 10-year risk, NT-proBNP improved risk classification for primary CVD cases (case net reclassification index, 5.9%; 95% confidence interval, 2.8%–9.2%), but only improved classification of noncases at a 14% 14-year risk threshold (4.6%; 2.9%–6.3%). In MFS, ASSIGN risk factors yielded a C-index of 0.752 for primary CVD; none of the cardiac biomarkers improved the C-index. Improvements in risk classification were only seen using NT-proBNP and high-sensitivity troponin T among cases using the 28% 14-year risk threshold (4.7%; 1.0%–9.2% and 2.6%; 0.0%–5.8%, respectively). In conclusion, the improvement in treatment allocation gained by adding cardiac biomarkers to risk scores seems to depend on the risk threshold chosen for commencing preventative treatments

The Relationships of Dentition, Use of Dental Prothesis and Oral Health Problems with Frailty, Disability and Diet Quality: Results from Population-Based Studies of Older Adults from the UK and USA

Objectives: This study examined the relationships of dental status, use and types of dental prothesis and oral health problems, individually and combined, with diet quality, frailty and disability in two population-based studies of older adults. Design: Cross-sectional study. Setting and Participants: Men form the British Regional Heart Study (BRHS) (aged 85±4 years in 2018; n=1013) and Men and Women from the Health, Aging, and Body Composition (HABC) Study (aged 75±3 years in 1998–99; n=1975). Measurements: Physical and dental examinations and questionnaires were collected with data available for dental status, oral problems related to eating, diet quality, Fried frailty phenotype, disability based on mobility limitations, and activities of daily living (ADL). The associations of dental status and oral health problems, individually and combined, with risk of frailty and disability were quantified. The relationship with diet quality was also assessed. Results: In the BRHS, but not HABC Study, impaired natural dentition without the use of dentures was associated with frailty independently. This relationship was only established in the same group in those with oral problems (OR=3.24; 95% CI: 1.30–8.03). In the HABC Study, functional dentition with oral health problems was associated with greater risk of frailty (OR=2.21; 95% CI: 1.18–4.15). In both studies those who wore a full or partial denture in one or more jaw who reported oral problems were more likely to have disability. There was no association with diet quality in these groups. Conclusion: Older adults with impaired dentition even who use dentures who experience self-report oral problems related to eating may be at increased risk of frailty and disability. Further research is needed to establish whether improving oral problems could potentially reduce the occurrence of frailty and disability

Harbor and intra-city drivers of air pollution: findings from a land use regression model, Durban, South Africa

Multiple land use regression models (LUR) were developed for different air pollutants to characterize exposure, in the Durban metropolitan area, South Africa. Based on the European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects (ESCAPE) methodology, concentrations of particulate matter (PM; 10; and PM; 2.5; ), sulphur dioxide (SO; 2; ), and nitrogen dioxide (NO; 2; ) were measured over a 1-year period, at 41 sites, with Ogawa Badges and 21 sites with PM Monitors. Sampling was undertaken in two regions of the city of Durban, South Africa, one with high levels of heavy industry as well as a harbor, and the other small-scale business activity. Air pollution concentrations showed a clear seasonal trend with higher concentrations being measured during winter (25.8, 4.2, 50.4, and 20.9 µg/m; 3; for NO; 2; , SO; 2; , PM; 10; , and PM; 2.5; , respectively) as compared to summer (10.5, 2.8, 20.5, and 8.5 µg/m; 3; for NO; 2; , SO; 2; , PM; 10; , and PM; 2.5; , respectively). Furthermore, higher levels of NO; 2; and SO; 2; were measured in south Durban as compared to north Durban as these are industrial related pollutants, while higher levels of PM were measured in north Durban as compared to south Durban and can be attributed to either traffic or domestic fuel burning. The LUR NO; 2; models for annual, summer, and winter explained 56%, 41%, and 63% of the variance with elevation, traffic, population, and Harbor being identified as important predictors. The SO; 2; models were less robust with lower R; 2; annual (37%), summer (46%), and winter (46%) with industrial and traffic variables being important predictors. The R; 2; for PM; 10; models ranged from 52% to 80% while for PM; 2.5; models this range was 61-76% with traffic, elevation, population, and urban land use type emerging as predictor variables. While these results demonstrate the influence of industrial and traffic emissions on air pollution concentrations, our study highlighted the importance of a Harbor variable, which may serve as a proxy for NO; 2; concentrations suggesting the presence of not only ship emissions, but also other sources such as heavy duty motor vehicles associated with the port activities

Exploring high mortality rates among people with multiple and complex needs: a qualitative study using peer research methods

Objective To explore the perceived reasons underlying high mortality rates among people with multiple and complex needs.Design Qualitative study using peer research.Setting North East of England.Participants Three focus group discussions were held involving (1) people with lived experience of multiple and complex needs (n=5); (2) front-line staff from health, social care and voluntary organisations that support multiple and complex needs groups (n=7); and (3) managers and commissioners of these organisations (n=9).Results Findings from this study provide valuable perspectives of people with multiple complex needs and those that provide them with support on what may be perceived factors underlying premature mortality. Mental ill health and substance misuse (often co-occurring dual diagnosis) were perceived as influencing premature mortality among multiple and complex needs groups. Perceptions of opportunities to identify people at risk included critical life events (eg, bereavement, relationship breakdown) and transitions (eg, release from prison, completion of drug treatment). Early prevention, particularly supporting young people experiencing adverse childhood experiences, was also highlighted as a priority.Conclusion High mortality in multiple and complex needs groups may be reduced by addressing dual diagnosis, providing more support at critical life events and investing in early prevention efforts. Future interventions could take into consideration the intricate nature of multiple and complex needs and improve service access and navigation

Influence of neighborhood-level socioeconomic deprivation and individual socioeconomic position on risk of developing type 2 diabetes in older men: a longitudinal analysis in the British Regional Heart Study cohort

INTRODUCTION: Evidence from longitudinal studies on the influence of neighborhood socioeconomic deprivation in older age on the development of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is limited. This study investigates the prospective associations of neighborhood-level deprivation and individual socioeconomic position (SEP) with T2DM incidence in older age. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: The British Regional Heart Study studied 4252 men aged 60-79 years in 1998-2000. Neighborhood-level deprivation was based on the Index of Multiple Deprivation quintiles for participants' 1998-2000 residential postcode. Individual SEP was defined as social class based on longest-held occupation. A cumulative score of individual socioeconomic factors was derived. Incident T2DM cases were ascertained from primary care records; prevalent cases were excluded. Cox proportional hazard models were used to examine the associations. RESULTS: Among 3706 men, 368 incident cases of T2DM were observed over 18 years. The age-adjusted T2DM risk increased from the least deprived quintile to the most deprived: HR per quintile increase 1.14 (95% CI 1.06 to 1.23) (p=0.0005). The age-adjusted T2DM HR in social class V (lowest) versus social class I (highest) was 2.45 (95% CI 1.36 to 4.42) (p=0.001). Both associations attenuated but remained significant on adjustment for other deprivation measures, becoming non-significant on adjustment for body mass index and T2DM family history. T2DM risk increased with cumulative individual adverse socioeconomic factors: HR per point increase 1.14 (95% CI 1.05 to 1.24). CONCLUSIONS: Inequalities in T2DM risk persist in later life, both in relation to neighborhood-level and individual-level socioeconomic factors. Underlying modifiable risk factors continue to need to be addressed in deprived older age populations to reduce disease burden

Oral health problems and risk of incident disability in two studies of older adults in the United Kingdom and the United States

Background: Preventing oral health problems can be crucial for maintaining physical independence in older adults. We aimed to examine the associations of a range of oral health problems with incidence of disability in older adults. Methods: We used prospective data from the British Regional Health Study (BRHS) (N = 2147, 71–92 years), and the Health, Aging and Body Composition (HABC) study (USA) (N = 3075, 71–80 years). Oral health measures included tooth loss, periodontal disease, self-rated oral health, and self-reported dry mouth. Participants were followed for onset of disability over a follow-up period of 3 years. Onset of disability was assessed through new cases of mobility limitations, activities of daily living (ADL), and instrumental activities of daily living (IADL). Logistic regression was performed to calculate the odds of incident disability. Results: In the BRHS, tooth loss was associated with greater odds of mobility limitations and ADL difficulties. Periodontal disease was associated with greater incidence of mobility limitations. Self-report of ≥3 dry mouth symptoms was associated with increased odds of incident mobility limitations and ADL difficulties (OR = 2.08, 95% CI 1.27–3.42; OR = 1.73, 95% CI 1.03–2.90). Fair/poor self-rated oral health was associated with greater incidence of IADL difficulties. In the HABC study, complete tooth loss was associated with greater incidence of mobility limitations (OR = 1.86, 95% CI 1.13–3.06), and fair/poor self-rated oral health was associated with increased odds of incident ADL difficulties (OR = 1.42, 95% CI 1.04–1.94). Conclusions: Oral health problems in older adults, particularly tooth loss, self-reported dry mouth and self-rated oral health were associated with greater incidence of disability. Poor oral health plays a potentially important role in the development of disability in older populations, which in turn is an essential part of quality of life and healthy aging

Associations between inflammation, coagulation, cardiac strain and injury, and subclinical vascular disease with frailty in older men: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND: Inflammation, coagulation activation, endothelial dysfunction and subclinical vascular disease are cross-sectionally associated with frailty. Cardiac-specific biomarkers are less-well characterised. We assessed associations between these and frailty, in men with, and without, cardiovascular disease (CVD). METHODS: Cross-sectional analysis of 1096 men without, and 303 with, CVD, aged 71–92, from the British Regional Heart Study. Multinominal logistic regression was performed to examine the associations between frailty status (robust/pre-frail/frail) and, separately, C-reactive protein (CRP), interleukin-6 (IL-6), tissue plasminogen activator (tPA), D-dimer, von Willebrand factor (vWF), high-sensitivity cardiac troponin-T (hs-cTnT), N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) (all natural log-transformed), and, in men without CVD, carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT), carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (cfPWV), carotid distensibility coefficient (DC), and ankle-brachial pressure index (ABPI), adjusted for age, renal function, BMI, social class, smoking, polypharmacy, cognition, multimorbidity and systolic blood pressure. Explanatory variables with p < 0.05 were carried forward into mutually-adjusted analysis. RESULTS: In men without CVD, higher CRP, IL-6, vWF, tPA, hs-cTnT, NT-proBNP, cfPWV, and lower DC were significantly associated with frailty; mutually-adjusted, log IL-6 (OR for frailty = 2.02, 95%CI 1.38–2.95), log hs-cTnT (OR = 1.95, 95%CI 1.24–3.05) and DC (OR = 0.92, 95%CI 0.86–0.99) retained associations. In men with CVD, higher CRP, IL-6, and hs-cTnT, but not vWF, tPA, NT-proBNP or D-dimer, were significantly associated with frailty; mutually-adjusted, log hs-cTnT (OR 3.82, 95%CI 1.84–7.95) retained a significant association. CONCLUSIONS: In older men, biomarkers of myocardial injury are associated with frailty. Inflammation is associated with frailty in men without CVD. Carotid artery stiffness is associated with frailty in men without CVD, independently of these biomarkers

Changes in health and functioning of care home residents over two decades: what can we learn from population-based studies?

Background: Care home residents have complex care and support needs. There is a perception that the needs of residents have increased, but the evidence is limited. We investigated changes in health and functioning of care home residents over two decades in England and Wales. Methods: We conducted a repeated cross-sectional analysis over a 24 year period (1992–2016), using data from three longitudinal studies, the Cognitive Function and Ageing Studies (CFAS) I and II and the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA). To adjust for ageing of respondents over time results are presented for the 75–84 age group. Results: Analysis of 2,280 observations from 1,745 care home residents demonstrated increases in severe disability (difficulty in at least two from washing, dressing and toileting). The prevalence of severe disability increased from 63% in 1992 to 87% in 2014 (subsequent fall in 2016 although wide confidence intervals). The prevalence of complex multimorbidity (problems in at least three out of six body systems) increased within studies over time, from 33% to 54% in CFAS I/II between 1992 and 2012, and 26% to 54% in ELSA between 2006 and 2016. Conclusion: Over two decades, there has been an increase in disability and the complexity of health problems amongst care home residents in England and Wales. A rise in support needs for residents places increasing demands on care home staff and health professionals, and should be an important consideration for policymakers and service commissioners