Knowing your HIV/AIDS epidemic and tailoring an effective response: how did India do it?

Tremendous global efforts have been made to collect data on the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Yet, significant challenges remain for generating and analysing evidence to allocate resources efficiently and implement an effective AIDS response. India offers important lessons and a model for intelligent and integrated use of data on HIV/AIDS for an evidence-based response. Over the past 15 years, the number of data sources has expanded and the geographical unit of data generation, analysis and use for planning has shifted from the national to the state, district and now subdistrict level. The authors describe and critically analyse the evolution of data sets in India and how they have been utilised to better understand the epidemic, advance policy, and plan and implement an increasingly effective, well-targeted and decentralised national response to HIV and AIDS. The authors argue that India is an example of how ‘know your epidemic, know your response’ message can effectively be implemented at scale and presents important lessons to help other countries design their evidence generation systems

Assessment of the population-level eff ectiveness of the Avahan HIV-prevention programme in South India: a preplanned, causal-pathway-based modelling analysis

Background Avahan, the India AIDS initiative of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, was a large-scale, targeted HIV prevention intervention. We aimed to assess its overall eff ectiveness by estimating the number and proportion of HIV infections averted across Avahan districts, following the causal pathway of the intervention. Methods We created a mathematical model of HIV transmission in high-risk groups and the general population using data from serial cross-sectional surveys (integrated behavioural and biological assessments, IBBAs) within a Bayesian framework, which we used to reproduce HIV prevalence trends in female sex workers and their clients, men who have sex with men, and the general population in 24 South Indian districts over the fi rst 4 years (2004–07 or 2005–08 dependent on the district) and the full 10 years (2004–13) of the Avahan programme. We tested whether these prevalence trends were more consistent with self-reported increases in consistent condom use after the implementation of Avahan or with a counterfactual (assuming consistent condom use increased at slower, pre-Avahan rates) using a Bayes factor, which gave a measure of the strength of evidence for the eff ectiveness estimates. Using regression analysis, we extrapolated the prevention eff ect in the districts covered by IBBAs to all 69 Avahan districts. Findings In 13 of 24 IBBA districts, modelling suggested medium to strong evidence for the large self-reported increase in consistent condom use since Avahan implementation. In the remaining 11 IBBA districts, the evidence was weaker, with consistent condom use generally already high before Avahan began. Roughly 32 700 HIV infections (95% credibility interval 17 900–61 600) were averted over the fi rst 4 years of the programme in the IBBA districts with moderate to strong evidence. Addition of the districts with weaker evidence increased this total to 62 800 (32 000–118 000) averted infections, and extrapolation suggested that 202 000 (98 300–407 000) infections were averted across all 69 Avahan districts in South India, increasing to 606 000 (290 000–1 193 000) over 10 years. Over the fi rst 4 years of the programme 42% of HIV infections were averted, and over 10 years 57% were averted. Interpretation This is the fi rst assessment of Avahan to account for the causal pathway of the intervention, that of changing risk behaviours in female sex workers and high-risk men who have sex with men to avert HIV infections in these groups and the general population. The fi ndings suggest that substantial preventive eff ects can be achieved by targeted behavioural HIV prevention initiatives

Heterogeneity of the HIV epidemic in the general population of Karnataka state, south India

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In the context of <it>AVAHAN</it>, the India AIDS Initiative of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, general population surveys (GPS) were carried out between 2006 and 2008 in Belgaum (northern), Bellary (mid-state) and Mysore (southern) districts of Karnataka state, south India. Data from these three surveys were analysed to understand heterogeneity in HIV risk.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Outcome variables were the prevalence of HIV and sexually transmitted infections (STIs). Independent variables included age, district, place of residence, along with socio-demographic, medical and behavioural characteristics. Multivariate logistic regression was undertaken to identify characteristics associated with HIV and differences between districts, incorporating survey statistics to consider weights and cluster effects.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The participation rate was 79.0% for the interview and 72.5% for providing a blood or urine sample that was tested for HIV. Belgaum had the highest overall HIV (1.43%) and <it>Herpes simplex</it> type-2 (HSV-2) (16.93%) prevalence, and the lowest prevalence of curable STIs. In Belgaum, the HIV epidemic is predominantly rural, and among women. In Bellary, the epidemic is predominantly in urban areas and among men, and HIV prevalence was 1.18%. Mysore had the lowest prevalence of HIV (0.80%) and HSV-2 (10.89%) and the highest prevalence of curable STIs. Higher HIV prevalence among men was associated with increasing age (p<0.001), and with history of STIs (AOR=2.44,95%CI:1.15-5.17). Male circumcision was associated with lower HIV prevalence (AOR=0.33,95%CI:0.13-0.81). Higher HIV prevalence among women was associated with age (AOR_25-29years=11.22,95%CI:1.42-88.74, AOR_30-34years=13.13,95%CI:1.67-103.19 and AOR_35-39years=11.33,95%CI:1.32-96.83), having more than one lifetime sexual partner (AOR=4.61,95%CI:1.26-16.91) and having ever used a condom (AOR=3.32,95%CI:1.38-7.99). Having a dissolved marriage (being widowed/divorced/separated) was the strongest predictor (AOR=10.98,95%CI: 5.35-22.57) of HIV among women. Being a muslim woman was associated with lower HIV prevalence (AOR=0.27,95%CI:0.08-0.87).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The HIV epidemic in Karnataka shows considerable heterogeneity, and there appears to be an increasing gradient in HIV prevalence from south to north. The sex work structure in the northern districts may explain the higher prevalence of HIV in northern Karnataka. The higher prevalence of HIV and HSV-2 and lower prevalence of curable STIs in Belgaum suggests a later epidemic phase. Similarly, higher prevalence of curable STIs and lower HIV and HSV-2 prevalence in Mysore suggests an early phase epidemic.</p

Factors Associated with Sexual Violence against Men Who Have Sex with Men and Transgendered Individuals in Karnataka, India

There is a lack of information on sexual violence (SV) among men who have sex with men and transgendered individuals (MSM-T) in southern India. As SV has been associated with HIV vulnerability, this study examined health related behaviours and practices associated with SV among MSM-T.Data were from cross-sectional surveys from four districts in Karnataka, India.Multivariable logistic regression models were constructed to examine factors related to SV. Multivariable negative binomial regression models examined the association between physician visits and SV.A total of 543 MSM-T were included in the study. Prevalence of SV was 18% in the past year. HIV prevalence among those reporting SV was 20%, compared to 12% among those not reporting SV (p = .104). In multivariable models, and among sex workers, those reporting SV were more likely to report anal sex with 5+ casual sex partners in the past week (AOR: 4.1; 95%CI: 1.2-14.3, p = .029). Increased physician visits among those reporting SV was reported only for those involved in sex work (ARR: 1.7; 95%CI: 1.1-2.7, p = .012).These results demonstrate high levels of SV among MSM-T populations, highlighting the importance of integrating interventions to reduce violence as part of HIV prevention programs and health services

Declines in risk behaviour and sexually transmitted infection prevalence following a community-led HIV preventive intervention among female sex workers in Mysore, India.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the impact on sexual behaviour and sexually transmitted infections (STI) of a comprehensive community-led intervention programme for reducing sexual risk among female sex workers (FSW) in Mysore, India. The key programme components were: community mobilization and peer-mediated outreach; increasing access to and utilization of sexual health services; and enhancing the enabling environment to support programme activities. METHODS: Two cross-sectional surveys among random samples of FSW were conducted 30 months apart, in 2004 and 2006. RESULTS: Of over 1000 women who sell sex in Mysore city, 429 participated in the survey at baseline and 425 at follow-up. The median age was 30 years, median duration in sex work 4 years, and the majority were street based (88%). Striking increases in condom use were seen between baseline and follow-up surveys: condom use at last sex with occasional clients was 65% versus 90%, P < 0001; with repeat clients 53% versus 66%, P < 0.001; and with regular partners 7% versus 30%, P < 0.001. STI prevalence declined from baseline to follow-up: syphilis 25% versus 12%, P < 0.001; trichomonas infection 33% versus 14%, P < 0.001; chlamydial infection 11% versus 5%, P = 0.001; gonorrhoea 5% versus 2%, P = 0.03. HIV prevalence remained stable (26% versus 24%), and detuned assay testing suggested a decline in recent HIV infections. CONCLUSION: This comprehensive HIV preventive intervention empowering FSW has resulted in striking increases in reported condom use and a concomitant reduction in the prevalence of curable STI. This model should be replicated in similar urban settings across India

Evaluation of Stepping Stones as a tool for changing knowledge, attitudes and behaviours associated with gender, relationships and HIV risk in Karnataka, India

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Stepping Stones training aims to help individuals explore sexual relationships and recognize gender inequalities, the structural drivers of the HIV epidemic, in order to understand risk behaviours and to seek solutions to factors that increase HIV vulnerability. Despite earlier studies suggesting the success of Stepping Stones, little data exist to show diffusion to trainees' social networks or the wider community.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A mixed-methods evaluation of this approach was undertaken using in-depth interviews of trainees and friends, and polling booth surveys in 20 villages where Stepping Stones training took place and in another 20 villages with no Stepping Stones intervention.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The interview respondents and their friends reported significant changes in their relationships after training, and benefit from discussion of gender, sexuality, condom use and HIV vulnerability issues. However, though diffusion of this knowledge at the level of personal contacts was strong, the evaluation revealed that diffusion to the community level was limited.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The qualitative part of this study reflects other studies in different settings, in that SS participants gained immensely from the training. Wider behaviour change is a challenging goal that many programmes fail to attain, with most interventions too limited in scope and intensity to produce larger community effects. This may have contributed to the fact that we observed few differences between interventions and non-intervention villages in this study. However, it is also possible that we had excessive expectations of individual change at the community level, and that it might have been more appropriate to have had broader community level rather than individual behavioural change indicators. We suggest that SS could be enhanced by efforts to better engage existing community opinion leaders, to empower and train participants as community change agents, and to support the development of village-level action plans that combat sexual stereotyping and risky behaviours that lead to unhealthy sexual relationships.</p

Degree and correlates of sexual mixing in female sex workers in Karnataka, India

Background: The degree of sexual mixing plays an important role in understanding disparities in sexually transmissible infections and HIV across social groups. This study examines the degree of sexual age mixing, and explores its individual and partnership level correlates among female sex workers (FSWs) in Karnataka, India. Methods: Data were drawn from special behavioural surveys conducted in 2006–07 among 577 FSWs in two districts of Karnataka: Belgaum and Bangalore. Sexual mixing in age was assessed as the difference in age between FSWs and their sexual partners, and the degree of assortativeness in sexual mixing was assessed using Newman’s assortativity coefficient. Results: A total of 577 FSWs were interviewed; 418 of whom reported two or more partnerships, resulting in 942 partnerships. In about half (52%) of these partnerships, the age difference between the FSW and her sexual partner was 5 years or more. The degree of assortativity in age mixing was 0.098, indicating minimally assortative mixing. The disassortativeness in age mixing was positively associated with young age and no formal education, and negatively with duration in sex work. Partnerships which were of a commercial nature were more likely to be disassortative than noncommercial partnerships. Conclusion: The minimally assortative age mixing indicates sexually transmissible infections can transfer from members of one age group to another. Efforts are required to limit the transmission of infection from one group to other by promoting safer sexual behaviour

Factors associated with risky sexual practices among female sex workers in Karnataka, India

Introduction: The objectives of this study are to develop a summary measure of risky sexual practice and examine the factors associated with this among female sex workers (FSWs) in Karnataka, India. Materials and Methods: Data were drawn from special behavioral surveys (SBS) conducted in 2007 among 577 FSWs in two districts of Karnataka, India: Belgaum and Bangalore. FSWs were recruited using the two-stage probability sampling design. FSWs’ sexual practice was considered risky if they reported inconsistent condom use with any sexual partner and reported experience of one of the following vulnerabilities to HIV risk: anal sex, alcohol consumption prior to sex and concurrent sexual relationships. Results: About 51% of FSWs had engaged in risky sexual practice. The odds of engaging in risky sex were higher among FSWs who were older (35+ years) than younger (18–25 years) (58% vs. 45%, Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR): 2.0, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.2–3.4), who were currently married than never married (61% vs. 51%, AOR: 4.8, 95% CI: 2.5–9.3), who were in sex work for 10+ years than those who were in sex work for less than five years (66% vs. 39%, AOR: 2.6, 95% CI: 1.6–4.2), and who had sex with 3+ clients/day than those who had sex with fewer clients (67% vs. 38%, AOR: 3.7, 95% CI:2.5–5.5). Conclusion: FSWs who are older, currently married, practicing sex work for longer duration and with higher clientele were more likely to engage in risky sexual practices. HIV prevention programs should develop strategies to reach these most-at risk group of FSWs to optimize the effectiveness of such programs