Hidden Dangers to Researcher Safety While Sampling Freshwater Benthic Macroinvertebrates

Abstract This paper reviews hidden dangers that threaten the safety of freshwater (FW) researchers of benthic macroinvertebrates (BMIs). Six refereed journals containing 2,075 papers were reviewed for field research resulting in 505 FW BMI articles. However, danger was reported in only 18% of FW BMI papers. I discussed: 1) papers that did not warn of existing danger and consider researcher safety, 2) metric threshold values (e.g., chemical hazards), and non-metric dangers, (e.g., caves and aquatic habitats), 3), the frequency of danger occurrence, 4) baseline and extreme values. Examples of 28 danger factors that posed a threat to BMI researchers in water were compared by frequency per journal papers. FW dangers identified by metric thresholds present a safety limit not to be exceeded, whereas non-metric dangers do not have a threshold as further explained. Also, discussed was a recent thesis on civil engineering hydraulics that identified low-head dams as deceptive and an increasing source of drownings in 39 states. A safe shallow water maximum depth to wade and collect BMIs is proposed based on researcher height and gender, compared to human height means in a large database. Practical safety recommendations were presented to help protect the FW researcher avoid and survive hidden dangers

Exponential Smoothing: A Prediction Error Decomposition Principle

In the exponential smoothing approach to forecasting, restrictions are often imposed on the smoothing parameters which ensure that certain components are exponentially weighted averages. In this paper, a new general restriction is derived on the basis that the one-step ahead prediction error can be decomposed into permanent and transient components. It is found that this general restriction reduces to the common restrictions used for simple, trend and seasonal exponential smoothing. As such, the prediction error argument provides the rationale for these restrictions.time series analysis, prediction, exponential smoothing, ARIMA models, state space models.

A Pedant's Approach to Exponential Smoothing

An approach to exponential smoothing that relies on a linear single source of error state space model is outlined. A maximum likelihood method for the estimation of associated smoothing parameters is developed. Commonly used restrictions on the smoothing parameters are rationalised. Issues surrounding model identification and selection are also considered. It is argued that the proposed revised version of exponential smoothing provides a better framework for forecasting than either the Box-Jenkins or the traditional multi-disturbance state space approaches.Time Series Analysis, Prediction, Exponential Smoothing, ARIMA Models, Kalman Filter, State Space Models

Spectroscopy of discrete energy levels in ultrasmall metallic grains

We review recent experimental and theoretical work on ultrasmall metallic grains, i.e. grains sufficiently small that the conduction electron energy spectrum becomes discrete. The discrete excitation spectrum of an individual grain can be measured by the technique of single-electron tunneling spectroscopy: the spectrum is extracted from the current-voltage characteristics of a single-electron transistor containing the grain as central island. We review experiments studying the influence on the discrete spectrum of superconductivity, nonequilibrium excitations, spin-orbit scattering and ferromagnetism. We also review the theoretical descriptions of these phenomena in ultrasmall grains, which require modifications or extensions of the standard bulk theories to include the effects of level discreteness.Comment: 149 pages Latex, 35 figures, to appear in Physics Reports (2001

Helical Fields and Filamentary Molecular Clouds

We study the equilibrium of pressure truncated, filamentary molecular clouds that are threaded by rather general helical magnetic fields. We first derive a new virial equation appropriate for magnetized filamentary clouds, which includes the effects of non-thermal motions and the turbulent pressure of the surrounding ISM. When compared with the data, we find that many filamentary clouds have a mass per unit length that is significantly reduced by the effects of external pressure, and that toroidal fields play a significant role in squeezing such clouds. We also develop exact numerical MHD models of filamentary molecular clouds with more general helical field configurations than have previously been considered. We also examine the effects of the equation of state by comparing ``isothermal'' filaments, with constant total (thermal plus turbulent) velocity dispersion, with equilibria constructed using a logatropic equation of state. We perform a Monte Carlo exploration of our parameter space to determine which choices of parameters result in models that agree with the available observational constraints. We find that both equations of state result in equilibria that agree with the observational results. Moreover, we find that models with helical fields have more realistic density profiles than either unmagnetized models or those with purely poloidal fields; we find that most isothermal models have density distributions that fall off as r^{-1.8} to r^{-2}, while logatropes have density profiles that range from r^{-1} to r^{-1.8}. We find that purely poloidal fields produce filaments with steep density gradients that not allowed by the observations.Comment: 21 pages, 8 eps figures, submitted to MNRAS. Significant streamlining of tex

Reading policies for joins: An asymptotic analysis

Suppose that $m_n$ observations are made from the distribution $\mathbf {R}$ and $n-m_n$ from the distribution $\mathbf {S}$. Associate with each pair, $x$ from $\mathbf {R}$ and $y$ from $\mathbf {S}$, a nonnegative score $\phi(x,y)$. An optimal reading policy is one that yields a sequence $m_n$ that maximizes $\mathbb{E}(M(n))$, the expected sum of the $(n-m_n)m_n$ observed scores, uniformly in $n$. The alternating policy, which switches between the two sources, is the optimal nonadaptive policy. In contrast, the greedy policy, which chooses its source to maximize the expected gain on the next step, is shown to be the optimal policy. Asymptotics are provided for the case where the $\mathbf {R}$ and $\mathbf {S}$ distributions are discrete and $\phi(x,y)=1 or 0$ according as $x=y$ or not (i.e., the observations match). Specifically, an invariance result is proved which guarantees that for a wide class of policies, including the alternating and the greedy, the variable M(n) obeys the same CLT and LIL. A more delicate analysis of the sequence $\mathbb{E}(M(n))$ and the sample paths of M(n), for both alternating and greedy, reveals the slender sense in which the latter policy is asymptotically superior to the former, as well as a sense of equivalence of the two and robustness of the former.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/105051606000000646 in the Annals of Applied Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aap/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Helical Fields and Filamentary Molecular Clouds II - Axisymmetric Stability and Fragmentation

In Paper I (Fiege & Pudritz, 1999), we constructed models of filamentary molecular clouds that are truncated by a realistic external pressure and contain a rather general helical magnetic field. We address the stability of our models to gravitational fragmentation and axisymmetric MHD-driven instabilities. By calculating the dominant modes of axisymmetric instability, we determine the dominant length scales and growth rates for fragmentation. We find that the role of pressure truncation is to decrease the growth rate of gravitational instabilities by decreasing the self-gravitating mass per unit length. Purely poloidal and toroidal fields also help to stabilize filamentary clouds against fragmentation. The overall effect of helical fields is to stabilize gravity-driven modes, so that the growth rates are significantly reduced below what is expected for unmagnetized clouds. However, MHD ``sausage'' instabilities are triggered in models whose toroidal flux to mass ratio exceeds the poloidal flux to mass ratio by more than a factor of $\sim 2$. We find that observed filaments appear to lie in a physical regime where the growth rates of both gravitational fragmentation and axisymmetric MHD-driven modes are at a minimum.Comment: 16 pages with 18 eps figures. Submitted to MNRA