Emergent neutrality or hidden niches?

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/100274/1/j.1600-0706.2013.00298.x.pd

Sustaining Economic Exploitation of Complex Ecosystems in Computational Models of Coupled Human-Natural Networks

Understanding ecological complexity has stymied scientists for decades. Recent elucidation of the famously coined "devious strategies for stability in enduring natural systems" has opened up a new field of computational analyses of complex ecological networks where the nonlinear dynamics of many interacting species can be more realistically mod-eled and understood. Here, we describe the first extension of this field to include coupled human-natural systems. This extension elucidates new strategies for sustaining extraction of biomass (e.g., fish, forests, fiber) from ecosystems that account for ecological complexity and can pursue multiple goals such as maximizing economic profit, employment and carbon sequestration by ecosystems. Our more realistic modeling of ecosystems helps explain why simpler "maxi-mum sustainable yield" bioeconomic models underpinning much natural resource extraction policy leads to less profit, biomass, and biodiversity than predicted by those simple models. Current research directions of this integrated natu-ral and social science include applying artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and multiplayer online games

To Bt or Not to Bt? Balancing Spatial Genetic Heterogeneity to Control the Evolution of Ostrinia nubilalis

24 pages, 1 article*To Bt or Not to Bt? Balancing Spatial Genetic Heterogeneity to Control the Evolution of Ostrinia nubilalis* (Miller, Conrad; Munoz, Andres; Pena, Fernando; Rael, Rosalyn; Yakubu, Abdul-Aziz) 24 page

Comparing theory and data on multi-species interactions using evolutionary game theory

Mathematical models with fixed parameters have a long history of use in describing the dynamics of populations in ecological interactions. However, in many instances, evolutionary changes in species characteristics can have a significant influence on these dynamics. Using evolutionary game theory, we incorporate evolution into population dynamic models and apply the resulting “Darwinian dynamic” models to study the effects that evolutionary changes can have on populations in several ecological scenarios. We start with a single species (Chapter 2), then add a competitor (Chapter 3), and a predator (Chapter 4). In Chapter 2, a rigorous mathematical analysis of the Darwinian logistic model for a single species shows that stable equilibria occur at strategies that maximize population size rather than growth rate. We apply this model to the data obtained from an experimental study on genetically perturbed populations of the flour beetle Tribolium castaneum. In Chapter 3, we apply a Darwinian dynamic modification of the Lotka-Volterra model to investigate circumstances under which evolution will change expected competitive outcomes. We compare the results of our Darwinian Lotka-Volterra model to studies in which unusual observations were made in studies of the flour beetles T. castaneum and T. confusum, including a reversal in the “winner” of competitive exclusion, and evolution from exclusion to coexistence. Chapters 2 and 3 provide one of the few examples in which evolutionary game theory has been successfully applied to empirical data. From a foundation provided by the Darwinian logistic equation, we build Darwinian dynamic models with two and three trophic levels to study effects of evolution on some basic ecological interactions in Chapter 4. We show how a consumer can cause a resource (producer) species to evolve to a mean strategy that increases its growth rate rather than its population size. We also briefly study how predation on the consumer species can affect equilibrium strategies of species lower in the food chain. Our results show how evolutionary game theoretic methods can be useful for studying both theoretical and applied problems that arise due to evolutionary processes, even when they occur on a ecological time scale. They provide a foundation for the future study of evolutionary effects in larger complex networks of interacting species

Indirect Energy Flows in Niche Model Food Webs: Effects of Size and Connectance

<div><p>Indirect interactions between species have long been of interest to ecologists. One such interaction type takes place when energy or materials flow via one or more intermediate species between two species with a direct predator-prey relationship. Previous work has shown that, although each such flow is small, their great number makes them important in ecosystems. A new network analysis method, dynamic environ approximation, was used to quantify the fraction of energy flowing from prey to predator over paths of length greater than 1 (flow indirectness or FI) in a commonly studied food web model. Web structure was created using the niche model and dynamics followed the Yodzis-Innes model. The effect of food web size (10 to 40 species) and connectance (0.1 to 0.48) on FI was examined. For each of 250 model realizations run for each pair of size and connectance values, the FI of every predator-prey interaction in the model was computed and then averaged over the whole network. A classification and regression tree (CART) analysis was then used to find the best predictors of FI. The mean FI of the model food webs is 0.092, with a standard deviation of 0.0279. It tends to increase with system size but peaks at intermediate connectance levels. Of 27 potential predictor variables, only five (mean path length, dominant eigenvalue of the adjacency matrix, connectance, mean trophic level and fraction of species belonging to intermediate trophic levels) were selected by the CART algorithm as best accounting for variation in the data; mean path length and the dominant eigenvalue of the adjacency matrix were dominant.</p></div

Parameters and variables of <i>n</i>-species Yodzis-Innes model where <i>m</i>_<i>i</i> is the body mass of species <i>i</i>.

<p>Parameter values were taken from [<a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0137829#pone.0137829.ref026" target="_blank">26</a>].</p

Network characteristics and predicted flow indirectness values for empirical food webs.

<p>Predictions were made by following the CART tree in <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0137829#pone.0137829.g003" target="_blank">Fig 3</a>.</p