Personalised progression prediction in patients with monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance or smouldering multiple myeloma (PANGEA): a retrospective, multicohort study

BACKGROUND: Patients with precursors to multiple myeloma are dichotomised as having monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance or smouldering multiple myeloma on the basis of monoclonal protein concentrations or bone marrow plasma cell percentage. Current risk stratifications use laboratory measurements at diagnosis and do not incorporate time-varying biomarkers. Our goal was to develop a monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance and smouldering multiple myeloma stratification algorithm that utilised accessible, time-varying biomarkers to model risk of progression to multiple myeloma. METHODS: In this retrospective, multicohort study, we included patients who were 18 years or older with monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance or smouldering multiple myeloma. We evaluated several modelling approaches for predicting disease progression to multiple myeloma using a training cohort (with patients at Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Boston, MA, USA; annotated from Nov, 13, 2019, to April, 13, 2022). We created the PANGEA models, which used data on biomarkers (monoclonal protein concentration, free light chain ratio, age, creatinine concentration, and bone marrow plasma cell percentage) and haemoglobin trajectories from medical records to predict progression from precursor disease to multiple myeloma. The models were validated in two independent validation cohorts from National and Kapodistrian University of Athens (Athens, Greece; from Jan 26, 2020, to Feb 7, 2022; validation cohort 1), University College London (London, UK; from June 9, 2020, to April 10, 2022; validation cohort 1), and Registry of Monoclonal Gammopathies (Czech Republic, Czech Republic; Jan 5, 2004, to March 10, 2022; validation cohort 2). We compared the PANGEA models (with bone marrow [BM] data and without bone marrow [no BM] data) to current criteria (International Myeloma Working Group [IMWG] monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance and 20/2/20 smouldering multiple myeloma risk criteria). FINDINGS: We included 6441 patients, 4931 (77%) with monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance and 1510 (23%) with smouldering multiple myeloma. 3430 (53%) of 6441 participants were female. The PANGEA model (BM) improved prediction of progression from smouldering multiple myeloma to multiple myeloma compared with the 20/2/20 model, with a C-statistic increase from 0·533 (0·480-0·709) to 0·756 (0·629-0·785) at patient visit 1 to the clinic, 0·613 (0·504-0·704) to 0·720 (0·592-0·775) at visit 2, and 0·637 (0·386-0·841) to 0·756 (0·547-0·830) at visit three in validation cohort 1. The PANGEA model (no BM) improved prediction of smouldering multiple myeloma progression to multiple myeloma compared with the 20/2/20 model with a C-statistic increase from 0·534 (0·501-0·672) to 0·692 (0·614-0·736) at visit 1, 0·573 (0·518-0·647) to 0·693 (0·605-0·734) at visit 2, and 0·560 (0·497-0·645) to 0·692 (0·570-0·708) at visit 3 in validation cohort 1. The PANGEA models improved prediction of monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance progression to multiple myeloma compared with the IMWG rolling model at visit 1 in validation cohort 2, with C-statistics increases from 0·640 (0·518-0·718) to 0·729 (0·643-0·941) for the PANGEA model (BM) and 0·670 (0·523-0·729) to 0·879 (0·586-0·938) for the PANGEA model (no BM). INTERPRETATION: Use of the PANGEA models in clinical practice will allow patients with precursor disease to receive more accurate measures of their risk of progression to multiple myeloma, thus prompting for more appropriate treatment strategies. FUNDING: SU2C Dream Team and Cancer Research UK

More than 2% of circulating tumor plasma cells defines plasma cell leukemia-like multiple myeloma

[Purpose]: Primary plasma cell leukemia (PCL) is the most aggressive monoclonal gammopathy. It was formerly characterized by $20$ 5%. We hypothesized that primary PCL is not a separate clinical entity, but rather that it represents ultra-high-risk multiple myeloma (MM) characterized by elevated CTC levels. [Methods]: We assessed the levels of CTCs by multiparameter flow cytometry in 395 patients with newly diagnosed transplant-ineligible MM to establish a cutoff for CTCs that identifies the patients with ultra-high-risk PCL-like MM. We tested the cutoff on 185 transplant-eligible patients with MM and further validated on an independent cohort of 280 transplant-ineligible patients treated in the GEM-CLARIDEX trial. The largest published real-world cohort of patients with primary PCL was used for comparison of survival. Finally, we challenged the current 5% threshold for primary PCL diagnosis. [Results]: Newly diagnosed transplant-ineligible patients with MM with 2%-20% CTCs had significantly shorter progression-free survival (3.1 v 15.6 months; P , .001) and overall survival (14.6 v 33.6 months; P 5 .023) than patients with , 2%. The 2% cutoff proved to be applicable also in transplant-eligible patients with MM and was successfully validated on an independent cohort of patients from the GEM-CLARIDEX trial. Most importantly, patients with 2%-20% CTCs had comparable dismal outcomes with primary PCL. Moreover, after revealing a low mean difference between flow cytometric and morphologic evaluation of CTCs, we showed that patients with 2%-5% CTCs have similar outcomes as those with 5%-20% CTCs. [Conclusions]: Our study uncovers that $ 2% CTCs is a biomarker of hidden primary PCL and supports the assessment of CTCs by flow cytometry during the diagnostic workup of MM.Supported by the European Regional Development Fund—New Directions of Biomedical Research in the Ostrava Region (No. CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/18_069/0010060), by the National Institute for Cancer Research (Program EXCELES, ID Project No. LX22NPO5102)—Funded by the European Union—Next Generation EU and by the Ministry of Health of the Czech Republic (AZV—NU21-03-00076), Institutional Support by MH CZ—DRO—FNOs/2019, MH CZ—DRO—FNOs/2020, Student's grant system SGS12/PrF/2022, SGS10/LF/2022 University of Ostrava and by the Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic through the e-INFRA CZ (ID:90140). The work was also supported by Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red—Área de Oncología—del Instituto de Salud Carlos III (CIBERONC; CB16/12/00369); Instituto de Salud Carlos III/Subdirección General de Investigación Sanitaria (FIS No. PI20/00048, PI21/01816); the Cancer Research UK (C355/A26819), FCAECC and AIRC under the Accelerator Award Program (EDITOR); the European Research Council (ERC) 2015 Starting Grant (MYELOMANEXT/680200)

Prognostic indicators in primary plasma cell leukaemia: a multicentre retrospective study of 117 patients

We report a multicentre retrospective study that analysed clinical characteristics and outcomes in 117 patients with primary plasma cell leukaemia (pPCL) treated at the participating institutions between January 2006 and December 2016. The median age at the time of pPCL diagnosis was 61 years. Ninety-eight patients were treated with novel agents, with an overall response rate of 78%. Fifty-five patients (64%) patients underwent upfront autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT). The median follow-up time was 50 months (95% confidence interval [CI] 33; 76), with a median overall survival (OS) for the entire group of 23 months (95% CI 15; 34). The median OS time in patients who underwent upfront ASCT was 35 months (95% CI 24·3; 46) as compared to 13 months (95% CI 6·3; 35·8) in patients who did not receive ASCT (P = 0·001). Multivariate analyses identified age ≥60 years, platelet count ≤100 × 109 /l and peripheral blood plasma cell count ≥20 × 109 /l as independent predictors of worse survival. The median OS in patients with 0, 1 or 2-3 of these risk factors was 46, 27 and 12 months, respectively (P < 0·001). Our findings support the use of novel agents and ASCT as frontline treatment in patients with pPCL. The constructed prognostic score should be independently validated. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Lt

More than 2% of circulating tumor plasma cells defines plasma cell leukemia-like multiple myeloma

PURPOSEPrimary plasma cell leukemia (PCL) is the most aggressive monoclonal gammopathy. It was formerly characterized by >= 20% circulating plasma cells (CTCs) until 2021, when this threshold was decreased to >= 5%. We hypothesized that primary PCL is not a separate clinical entity, but rather that it represents ultra-high-risk multiple myeloma (MM) characterized by elevated CTC levels.METHODSWe assessed the levels of CTCs by multiparameter flow cytometry in 395 patients with newly diagnosed transplant-ineligible MM to establish a cutoff for CTCs that identifies the patients with ultra-high-risk PCL-like MM. We tested the cutoff on 185 transplant-eligible patients with MM and further validated on an independent cohort of 280 transplant-ineligible patients treated in the GEM-CLARIDEX trial. The largest published real-world cohort of patients with primary PCL was used for comparison of survival. Finally, we challenged the current 5% threshold for primary PCL diagnosis.RESULTSNewly diagnosed transplant-ineligible patients with MM with 2%-20% CTCs had significantly shorter progression-free survival (3.1 v 15.6 months; P = 2% CTCs is a biomarker of hidden primary PCL and supports the assessment of CTCs by flow cytometry during the diagnostic workup of MM