The impact of climate change on the geographical distribution of two vectors of Chagas disease: Implications for the force of infection

Chagas disease, caused by the parasite Trypanosoma cruzi, is the most important vector-borne disease in Latin America. The vectors are insects belonging to the Triatominae (Hemiptera, Reduviidae), and are widely distributed in the Americas. Here, we assess the implications of climatic projections for 2050 on the geographical footprint of two of the main Chagas disease vectors: Rhodnius prolixus (tropical species) and Triatoma infestans (temperate species).We estimated the epidemiological implications of current to future transitions in the climatic niche in terms of changes in the force of infection (FOI) on the rural population of two countries: Venezuela (tropical) and Argentina (temperate). The climatic projections for 2050 showed heterogeneous impact on the climatic niches of both vector species, with a decreasing trend of suitability of areas that are currently at high-to-moderate transmission risk. Consequently, climatic projections affected differently the FOI for Chagas disease in Venezuela and Argentina. Despite the heterogeneous results, our main conclusions point out a decreasing trend in the number of new cases of Tr. cruzi human infections per year between current and future conditions using a climatic niche approach.Centro de Estudios Parasitológicos y de VectoresFacultad de Ciencias Naturales y Muse

La Ecología en la República Argentina

La Asociación Argentina de Ecología (ASAS) evaluó el estado de la ecología en la Argentina sobre la base del análisis de un total de 614 resúmenes de trabajos presentados en reuniones nacionales de la ASAE entre 1972 y 1991, y a una encuesta realizada entre sus socios en 1992. Los resúmenes se clasificaron de acuerdo a especialidades dentro de ecología básica y aplicada, por el enfoque metodológico utilizado, y por los temas identificados como prioritarios en el documento Sustainable Biological Initiative de la Sociedad Americana de Ecología (SBI). Se verificó que en la Argentina las ramas dominantes en ecología básica son la de poblaciones y de comunidades, pero que la ecofisiología es la que muestra la mayor tasa de crecimiento. En la ecología aplicada la agroecología es la que tiene tanto la mayor dominancia como la mayor tasa de crecimiento a lo largo del tiempo. Se ha observado un “progreso” en la evolución temporal de la ecología en Argentina desde el punto de vista metodológico, que parece responder esencialmente a la rama de la ecofisiologia en la ecología básica y la de la agroecología en ecología aplicada. La opinión de los socios de la ASAS sobreestima notablemente el grado de desarrollo interpretativo y explicativo de las investigaciones, especialmente las de su propio lugar de trabajo, y subestima el de metodología descriptiva. La investigación ecológica en Argentina que muestra más asociación con los temas del SBI es la de ecología de poblaciones y comunidades y la de ecofisiologia. Los socios de la ASAS consideran que los temas del SBI son todos de importancia para la ciencia ecológica pero de escaso desarrollo en nuestro país, aunque con un muy bajo grado de discriminación en las opiniones.Based on 614 abstracts presented at four national meetings of the Argentinean Ecological Society (ASAE) that covered a 20-year period, and a societary survey carried out in 1992, the state of the ecological sciences in Argentina was evaluated. The abstracts were classified according to (a) specialties within basic and applied ecology, (b) the methodological approach used, and (c) the high priority subjects for the Sustainable Biological Initiative identified by the American Ecological Society (SBI). Populations and communities are the dominant branches of basic ecology in Argentina, but ecophysiology is the one that shows the highest growth rate. In applied ecology, agroecology is the branch with both the highest dominance and the highest rate of growth. From the methodological standpoint there has been c: certain temporal “progress” in Argentinean ecology that seems to reflect a stronger progress in ecophysiology and agroecology. The ASAE’s members opinion strongly overestimates the interpretative and explicative approaches of research, particularly when considering their own working place, and underestimates the descriptive approaches. Populations, communities and agroecology are the only branches that showed the highest association with SBI subjects. ASAE’s members consider that all SBI subjects are important for the ecological sciences but of scarce development in Argentina; however, the level of discrimination of these opinions was extremely low

Demographic fitness of Belminus ferroae (Hemiptera: Triatominae) on three different hosts under laboratory conditions

Triatominae are widely recognised for their role as vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi. One of the main biological characteristics of this subfamily is their obligate haematophagous condition. However, previous studies on Belminus herreri and Belminus ferroae suggested that cockroaches are their principal hosts in domiciles. Due to this peculiar behaviour, the aim of this study was to analyse several demographic and reproductive parameters of B. ferroae fed on three different hosts (mice, cockroaches and Rhodnius prolixus) and relate B. ferroae fitness to these alternative hosts. The cohorts were reared under constant conditions. The egg hatching rate was similar for cohorts fed on cockroaches (69.4%) and R. prolixus (63.8%), but was much lower for the cohort fed on mice (16%). The development time from the nymph to adult stage and the average age of first reproduction (α) presented lower values in the cohort fed on cockroaches, which is consistent with the higher population growth rate associated with this host. Demographic parameters [intrinsic rate of natural increase, finite rate of population growth, net reproductive rate and damping ratio] showed statistically significant differences between the cohorts. Analysis of the life history of B. ferroae revealed a higher fitness related to the cockroach. The implications of these results for the origin of the subfamily are discussed.Centro de Estudios Parasitológicos y de Vectore

Demographic fitness of Belminus ferroae (Hemiptera: Triatominae) on three different hosts under laboratory conditions

Triatominae are widely recognised for their role as vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi. One of the main biological characteristics of this subfamily is their obligate haematophagous condition. However, previous studies on Belminus herreri and Belminus ferroae suggested that cockroaches are their principal hosts in domiciles. Due to this peculiar behaviour, the aim of this study was to analyse several demographic and reproductive parameters of B. ferroae fed on three different hosts (mice, cockroaches and Rhodnius prolixus) and relate B. ferroae fitness to these alternative hosts. The cohorts were reared under constant conditions. The egg hatching rate was similar for cohorts fed on cockroaches (69.4%) and R. prolixus (63.8%), but was much lower for the cohort fed on mice (16%). The development time from the nymph to adult stage and the average age of first reproduction (α) presented lower values in the cohort fed on cockroaches, which is consistent with the higher population growth rate associated with this host. Demographic parameters [intrinsic rate of natural increase, finite rate of population growth, net reproductive rate and damping ratio] showed statistically significant differences between the cohorts. Analysis of the life history of B. ferroae revealed a higher fitness related to the cockroach. The implications of these results for the origin of the subfamily are discussed.Centro de Estudios Parasitológicos y de Vectore

Pellet-count sampling based on spatial distribution : a case study of the European hare in Patagonia

Las estimaciones de densidad y uso del hábitat a través del conteo de heces se hacen asumiendo una distribución al azar. Presentamos datos de liebre europea (Lepus capensis) en el noroeste de Patagonia que muestran que el patrón de distribución de sus heces se ajusta a una distribución agrupada (binomial negativa), y estimamos tamaños mínimos de muestra y varianzas basadas en este modelo. Los tamaños mininos de muestra fueron mayores y las varianzas menores que los basados en un modelo de disposición al azar. Hacernos recomendaciones para mejorar el método de conteo de heces y métodos similares cuando se puede determinar el patrón de distribución espacial de los individuos a través de un muestreo piloto.Estimates of density arad habitat use based on fecal-pellet counts have been done in the past assuming a random distribution. We present data on European hares (Lepus capensis) in northwest Patagonia showing that the distribution pattern of their pellets fats ara aggregated, negative binomial model. We also estimated minimum sample sizes arad variances based on this model. Minimum sample sizes were larger and variances were smaller than those based on a random distribution model. We provide recommendations to improve the pellet-count and similar sampling methods when the spatial distribution of the individuals can be determined through a pilot study

Influence of Vectors' Risk-Spreading Strategies and Environmental Stochasticity on the Epidemiology and Evolution of Vector-Borne Diseases: The Example of Chagas' Disease

Insects are known to display strategies that spread the risk of encountering unfavorable conditions, thereby decreasing the extinction probability of genetic lineages in unpredictable environments. To what extent these strategies influence the epidemiology and evolution of vector-borne diseases in stochastic environments is largely unknown. In triatomines, the vectors of the parasite Trypanosoma cruzi, the etiological agent of Chagas' disease, juvenile development time varies between individuals and such variation most likely decreases the extinction risk of vector populations in stochastic environments. We developed a simplified multi-stage vector-borne SI epidemiological model to investigate how vector risk-spreading strategies and environmental stochasticity influence the prevalence and evolution of a parasite. This model is based on available knowledge on triatomine biodemography, but its conceptual outcomes apply, to a certain extent, to other vector-borne diseases. Model comparisons between deterministic and stochastic settings led to the conclusion that environmental stochasticity, vector risk-spreading strategies (in particular an increase in the length and variability of development time) and their interaction have drastic consequences on vector population dynamics, disease prevalence, and the relative short-term evolution of parasite virulence. Our work shows that stochastic environments and associated risk-spreading strategies can increase the prevalence of vector-borne diseases and favor the invasion of more virulent parasite strains on relatively short evolutionary timescales. This study raises new questions and challenges in a context of increasingly unpredictable environmental variations as a result of global climate change and human interventions such as habitat destruction or vector control.Centro de Estudios Parasitológicos y de Vectore

Influence of Vectors' Risk-Spreading Strategies and Environmental Stochasticity on the Epidemiology and Evolution of Vector-Borne Diseases: The Example of Chagas' Disease

Insects are known to display strategies that spread the risk of encountering unfavorable conditions, thereby decreasing the extinction probability of genetic lineages in unpredictable environments. To what extent these strategies influence the epidemiology and evolution of vector-borne diseases in stochastic environments is largely unknown. In triatomines, the vectors of the parasite Trypanosoma cruzi, the etiological agent of Chagas' disease, juvenile development time varies between individuals and such variation most likely decreases the extinction risk of vector populations in stochastic environments. We developed a simplified multi-stage vector-borne SI epidemiological model to investigate how vector risk-spreading strategies and environmental stochasticity influence the prevalence and evolution of a parasite. This model is based on available knowledge on triatomine biodemography, but its conceptual outcomes apply, to a certain extent, to other vector-borne diseases. Model comparisons between deterministic and stochastic settings led to the conclusion that environmental stochasticity, vector risk-spreading strategies (in particular an increase in the length and variability of development time) and their interaction have drastic consequences on vector population dynamics, disease prevalence, and the relative short-term evolution of parasite virulence. Our work shows that stochastic environments and associated risk-spreading strategies can increase the prevalence of vector-borne diseases and favor the invasion of more virulent parasite strains on relatively short evolutionary timescales. This study raises new questions and challenges in a context of increasingly unpredictable environmental variations as a result of global climate change and human interventions such as habitat destruction or vector control.Centro de Estudios Parasitológicos y de Vectore

The impact of climate change on the geographical distribution of two vectors of Chagas disease: Implications for the force of infection

Chagas disease, caused by the parasite Trypanosoma cruzi, is the most important vector-borne disease in Latin America. The vectors are insects belonging to the Triatominae (Hemiptera, Reduviidae), and are widely distributed in the Americas. Here, we assess the implications of climatic projections for 2050 on the geographical footprint of two of the main Chagas disease vectors: Rhodnius prolixus (tropical species) and Triatoma infestans (temperate species).We estimated the epidemiological implications of current to future transitions in the climatic niche in terms of changes in the force of infection (FOI) on the rural population of two countries: Venezuela (tropical) and Argentina (temperate). The climatic projections for 2050 showed heterogeneous impact on the climatic niches of both vector species, with a decreasing trend of suitability of areas that are currently at high-to-moderate transmission risk. Consequently, climatic projections affected differently the FOI for Chagas disease in Venezuela and Argentina. Despite the heterogeneous results, our main conclusions point out a decreasing trend in the number of new cases of Tr. cruzi human infections per year between current and future conditions using a climatic niche approach.Centro de Estudios Parasitológicos y de VectoresFacultad de Ciencias Naturales y Muse

Insights from quantitative and mathematical modelling on the proposed WHO 2030 goals for Chagas disease

article publié sur la plateforme Gates Open researchChagas disease (CD) persists as one of the neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) with a particularly large impact in the Americas. The World Health Organization (WHO) recently proposed goals for CD elimination as a public health problem to be reached by 2030 by means of achieving intradomiciliary transmission interruption (IDTI), blood transfusion and transplant transmission interruption, diagnostic and treatment scaling-up and prevention and control of congenital transmission. The NTD Modelling Consortium has developed mathematical models to study Trypanosoma transmission dynamics and the potential impact of control measures. cruzi Modelling insights have shown that IDTI is feasible in areas with sustained vector control programmes and no presence of native triatomine vector populations. However, IDTI in areas with native vectors it is not feasible in a sustainable manner. Combining vector control with trypanocidal treatment can reduce the timeframes necessary to reach operational thresholds for IDTI (<2% seroprevalence in children aged <5 years), but the most informative age groups for serological monitoring are yet to be identified. Measuring progress towards the 2030 goals will require availability of vector surveillance and seroprevalence data at a fine scale, and a more active surveillance system, as well as a better understanding of the risks of vector re-colonization and disease resurgence after vector control cessation. Also, achieving scaling-up in terms of access to treatment to the expected levels (75%) will require a substantial increase in screening asymptomatic populations, which is anticipated to become very costly as CD prevalence decreases. Further modelling work includes refining and extending mathematical models (including transmission dynamics and statistical frameworks) to predict transmission at a sub-national scale, and developing quantitative tools to inform IDTI certification, post-certification and re-certification protocols. Potential perverse incentives associated with operational thresholds are discussed. These modelling insights aim to inform discussions on the goals and treatment guidelines for CD

Demographic fitness of Belminus ferroae (Hemiptera: Triatominae) on three different hosts under laboratory conditions

Triatominae are widely recognised for their role as vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi. One of the main biological characteristics of this subfamily is their obligate haematophagous condition. However, previous studies on Belminus herreri and Belminus ferroae suggested that cockroaches are their principal hosts in domiciles. Due to this peculiar behaviour, the aim of this study was to analyse several demographic and reproductive parameters of B. ferroae fed on three different hosts (mice, cockroaches and Rhodnius prolixus) and relate B. ferroae fitness to these alternative hosts. The cohorts were reared under constant conditions. The egg hatching rate was similar for cohorts fed on cockroaches (69.4%) and R. prolixus (63.8%), but was much lower for the cohort fed on mice (16%). The development time from the nymph to adult stage and the average age of first reproduction (α) presented lower values in the cohort fed on cockroaches, which is consistent with the higher population growth rate associated with this host. Demographic parameters [intrinsic rate of natural increase, finite rate of population growth, net reproductive rate and damping ratio] showed statistically significant differences between the cohorts. Analysis of the life history of B. ferroae revealed a higher fitness related to the cockroach. The implications of these results for the origin of the subfamily are discussed.Centro de Estudios Parasitológicos y de Vectore