Costs and mortality associated with HIV: a machine learning analysis of the French national health insurance database

BACKGROUND: The objective is to characterise the economic burden to the healthcare system of people living with HIV (PLWHIV) in France and to help decision makers in identifying risk factors associated with high-cost and high mortality profiles. DESIGN AND METHOD: The study is a retrospective analysis of PLWHIV identified in the French National Health Insurance database (SNDS). All PLWHIV present in the database in 2013 were identified.  All healthcare resource consumption from 2008 to 2015 inclusive was documented and costed (for 2013 to 2015) from the perspective of public health insurance. High-cost and high mortality patient profiles were identified by a machine learning algorithm. RESULTS: In 2013, 96,423 PLWHIV were identified in the SNDS database, including 3,373 incident cases. Overall, 3,224 PLWHIV died during the three-year follow-up period (mean annual mortality rate: 1.1%). The mean annual per capita cost incurred by PLWHIV was € 14,223, corresponding to a total management cost of HIV of € 1,370 million in 2013. The largest contribution came from the cost of antiretroviral medication (M€ 870; 63%) followed by hospitalisation (M€ 154; 11%). The costs incurred in the year preceding death were considerably higher. Four specific patient profiles were identified for under/over-expressing these costs, suggesting ways to reduce them. CONCLUSION: Even though current therapeutic regimens provide excellent virological control in most patients, PLWHIV have excess mortality. Other factors such as comorbidities, lifestyle factors and screening for cancer and cardiovascular disease, need to be targeted in order to lower the mortality and cost associated with HIV infection