Global Positioning System (GPS) Precipitable Water in Forecasting Lightning at Spaceport Canaveral

Using meteorology data, focusing on precipitable water (PW), obtained during the 2000-2003 thunderstorm seasons in Central Florida, this paper will, one, assess the skill and accuracy measurements of the current Mazany forecasting tool and, two, provide additional forecasting tools that can be used in predicting lightning. Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) are located in east Central Florida. KSC and CCAFS process and launch manned (NASA Space Shuttle) and unmanned (NASA and Air Force Expendable Launch Vehicles) space vehicles. One of the biggest cost impacts is unplanned launch scrubs due to inclement weather conditions such as thunderstorms. Each launch delay/scrub costs over a quarter million dollars, and the need to land the Shuttle at another landing site and return to KSC costs approximately $ 1M. Given the amount of time lost and costs incurred, the ability to accurately forecast (predict) when lightning will occur can result in significant cost and time savings. All lightning prediction models were developed using binary logistic regression. Lightning is the dependent variable and is binary. The independent variables are the Precipitable Water (PW) value for a given time of the day, the change in PW up to 12 hours, the electric field mill value, and the K-index value. In comparing the Mazany model results for the 1999 period B against actual observations for the 2000-2003 thunderstorm seasons, differences were found in the False Alarm Rate (FAR), Probability of Detection (POD) and Hit Rate (H). On average, the False Alarm Rate (FAR) increased by 58%, the Probability of Detection (POD) decreased by 31% and the Hit Rate decreased by 20%. In comparing the performance of the 6 hour forecast period to the performance of the 1.5 hour forecast period for the Mazany model, the FAR was lower by 15% and the Hit Rate was higher by 7%. However, the POD for the 6 hour forecast period was lower by 16% as compared to the POD of the 1.5 hour forecast period. Neither forecast period performed at the accuracy measures expected. A 2-Hr Forecasting Tool was developed to support a Phase I Lightning Advisory, which requires a 30-minute lead time for predicting lightning

Six Peaks Visible in the Redshift Distribution of 46,400 SDSS Quasars Agree with the Preferred Redshifts Predicted by the Decreasing Intrinsic Redshift Model

The redshift distribution of all 46,400 quasars in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) Quasar Catalog III, Third Data Release, is examined. Six Peaks that fall within the redshift window below z = 4, are visible. Their positions agree with the preferred redshift values predicted by the decreasing intrinsic redshift (DIR) model, even though this model was derived using completely independent evidence. A power spectrum analysis of the full dataset confirms the presence of a single, significant power peak at the expected redshift period. Power peaks with the predicted period are also obtained when the upper and lower halves of the redshift distribution are examined separately. The periodicity detected is in linear z, as opposed to log(1+z). Because the peaks in the SDSS quasar redshift distribution agree well with the preferred redshifts predicted by the intrinsic redshift relation, we conclude that this relation, and the peaks in the redshift distribution, likely both have the same origin, and this may be intrinsic redshifts, or a common selection effect. However, because of the way the intrinsic redshift relation was determined it seems unlikely that one selection effect could have been responsible for both.Comment: 12 pages, 12 figure, accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journa

Irradiance calibration with solar diffuser

The sun's energy is used in combination of movable and fixed diffuser plates, windows and apertures which are positioned in a series of test sequences (modes) for reflectance monitoring and calibration without the use of man-made sources. There are three embodiments, or implementations, of the invention--one embodiment uses two diffusers--a working diffuser and a secondary diffuser--the second embodiment uses three diffusers, a working diffuser, a secondary diffuser and a reference diffuser--and the third embodiment uses two diffusers--a working diffuser and a secondary diffuser, the latter also functioning as a cover for the working diffuser. The movable diffusers are mounted on rotatable cones and, in all embodiments, the sun is blocked from reaching the diffusers when not in use. Thus, the sun is used as a stable source for calibration and monitoring and the sun/diffuser combination is used in such a way that the response of all elements of the optical subsystem of the TOMS can be unambiguously and efficiently characterized with high accuracy and precision

Variability and Constancy in Cellular Growth of Arabidopsis Sepals

Growth of tissues is highly reproducible; yet, growth of individual cells in a tissue is highly variable, and neighboring cells can grow at different rates. We analyzed the growth of epidermal cell lineages in the Arabidopsis (Arabidopsis thaliana) sepal to determine how the growth curves of individual cell lineages relate to one another in a developing tissue. To identify underlying growth trends, we developed a continuous displacement field to predict spatially averaged growth rates. We showed that this displacement field accurately describes the growth of sepal cell lineages and reveals underlying trends within the variability of in vivo cellular growth. We found that the tissue, individual cell lineages, and cell walls all exhibit growth rates that are initially low, accelerate to a maximum, and decrease again. Accordingly, these growth curves can be represented by sigmoid functions. We examined the relationships among the cell lineage growth curves and surprisingly found that all lineages reach the same maximum growth rate relative to their size. However, the cell lineages are not synchronized; each cell lineage reaches this same maximum relative growth rate but at different times. The heterogeneity in observed growth results from shifting the same underlying sigmoid curve in time and scaling by size. Thus, despite the variability in growth observed in our study and others, individual cell lineages in the developing sepal follow similarly shaped growth curves

Nuclear structure beyond the neutron drip line: the lowest energy states in 9^9He via their T=5/2 isobaric analogs in 9^9Li

The level structure of the very neutron rich and unbound $^9$He nucleus has been the subject of significant experimental and theoretical study. Many recent works have claimed that the two lowest energy $^9$He states exist with spins $J^\pi=1/2^+$ and $J^\pi=1/2^-$ and widths on the order of hundreds of keV. These findings cannot be reconciled with our contemporary understanding of nuclear structure. The present work is the first high-resolution study with low statistical uncertainty of the relevant excitation energy range in the $^8$He$+n$ system, performed via a search for the T=5/2 isobaric analog states in $^9$Li populated through $^8$He+p elastic scattering. The present data show no indication of any narrow structures. Instead, we find evidence for a broad $J^{\pi}=1/2^+$ state in $^9$He located approximately 3 MeV above the neutron decay threshold

Structure of 10N in 9C+p resonance scattering

The structure of exotic nucleus 10N was studied using 9C+p resonance scattering. Two L=0 resonances were found to be the lowest states in 10N. The ground state of 10N is unbound with respect to proton decay by 2.2(2) or 1.9(2) MeV depending on the 2- or 1- spin-parity assignment, and the first excited state is unbound by 2.8(2) MeV.Comment: 6 pages, 4 figures, 1 table, submitted to Phys. Lett.