How Can Viral Dynamics Models Inform Endpoint Measures in Clinical Trials of Therapies for Acute Viral Infections?

Acute viral infections pose many practical challenges for the accurate assessment of the impact of novel therapies on viral growth and decay. Using the example of influenza A, we illustrate how the measurement of infection-related quantities that determine the dynamics of viral load within the human host, can inform investigators on the course and severity of infection and the efficacy of a novel treatment. We estimated the values of key infection-related quantities that determine the course of natural infection from viral load data, using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. The data were placebo group viral load measurements collected during volunteer challenge studies, conducted by Roche, as part of the oseltamivir trials. We calculated the values of the quantities for each patient and the correlations between the quantities, symptom severity and body temperature. The greatest variation among individuals occurred in the viral load peak and area under the viral load curve. Total symptom severity correlated positively with the basic reproductive number. The most sensitive endpoint for therapeutic trials with the goal to cure patients is the duration of infection. We suggest laboratory experiments to obtain more precise estimates of virological quantities that can supplement clinical endpoint measurements

The development of a stochastic mathematical model of Alzheimer's disease to help improve the design of clinical trials of potential treatments

Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is a neurodegenerativ e disorder characterised by a slow progres- sive deterioration of cognitive capacity. Drugs are urgently needed for the treatment of AD and unfortunately almost all clinical trials of AD drug candidates have failed or been discon- tinued to date. Mathematical, computational and statistical tools can be employed in the construction of clinical trial simulators to assist in the improvement of trial design and enhance the chances of success of potential new therapies. Based on the analysis of a set of clinical data provided by the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) we developed a simple stochastic mathematical model to simulate the development and pro- gression of Alzheimer’s in a longitudinal cohort study. We show how this modelling frame- work could be used to assess the effect and the chances of success of hypothetical treatments that are administered at different stages and delay disease development. We demonstrate that the detection of the true efficacy of an AD treatment can be very challeng- ing, even if the treatment is highly effective. An important reason behind the inability to detect signals of efficacy in a clinical trial in this therapy area could be the high between- and within-individual variability in the measuremen t of diagnostic markers and endpoints, which consequently results in the misdiagno sis of an individual’s disease state

Using Clinical Trial Simulators to Analyse the Sources of Variance in Clinical Trials of Novel Therapies for Acute Viral Infections.

BACKGROUND:About 90% of drugs fail in clinical development. The question is whether trials fail because of insufficient efficacy of the new treatment, or rather because of poor trial design that is unable to detect the true efficacy. The variance of the measured endpoints is a major, largely underestimated source of uncertainty in clinical trial design, particularly in acute viral infections. We use a clinical trial simulator to demonstrate how a thorough consideration of the variability inherent in clinical trials of novel therapies for acute viral infections can improve trial design. METHODS AND FINDINGS:We developed a clinical trial simulator to analyse the impact of three different types of variation on the outcome of a challenge study of influenza treatments for infected patients, including individual patient variability in the response to the drug, the variance of the measurement procedure, and the variance of the lower limit of quantification of endpoint measurements. In addition, we investigated the impact of protocol variation on clinical trial outcome. We found that the greatest source of variance was inter-individual variability in the natural course of infection. Running a larger phase II study can save up to $38 million, if an unlikely to succeed phase III trial is avoided. In addition, low-sensitivity viral load assays can lead to falsely negative trial outcomes. CONCLUSIONS:Due to high inter-individual variability in natural infection, the most important variable in clinical trial design for challenge studies of potential novel influenza treatments is the number of participants. 100 participants are preferable over 50. Using more sensitive viral load assays increases the probability of a positive trial outcome, but may in some circumstances lead to false positive outcomes. Clinical trial simulations are powerful tools to identify the most important sources of variance in clinical trials and thereby help improve trial design

The International Society for Extracellular Vesicles launches the first massive open online course on extracellular vesicles

The International Society for Extracellular Vesicles (ISEV) has organised its first educational online course for students and beginners in the field of extracellular vesicles (EVs). This course, "Basics of Extracellular Vesicles,'' uses recorded lectures from experts in the field and will be open for an unlimited number of participants. The course is divided into 5 modules and can be accessed at www.coursera.org/learn/extracellular-vesicles. The first module is an introduction to the field covering the nomenclature and history of EVs. Module 2 focuses on the biogenesis and uptake mechanisms of EVs, as well as their RNA, protein and lipid cargo. Module 3 covers the collection and processing of cell culture media and body fluids such as blood, breast milk, cerebrospinal fluid and urine prior to isolation of EVs. Modules 4 and 5 present different isolation methods and characterisation techniques utilised in the EV field. Here, differential ultracentrifugation, size-exclusion chromatography, density gradient centrifugation, kit-based precipitation, electron microscopy, cryo-electron microscopy, flow cytometry, atomic-force microscopy and nanoparticle-tracking analysis are covered. This first massive open online course (MOOC) on EVs was launched on 15 August 2016 at the platform "Coursera'' and is free of charge.11Ysciescopu

Health literacy, health status, and healthcare utilization of Taiwanese adults: results from a national survey

Abstract Background Low health literacy is considered a worldwide health threat. The purpose of this study is to assess the prevalence and socio-demographic covariates of low health literacy in Taiwanese adults and to investigate the relationships between health literacy and health status and health care utilization. Methods A national survey of 1493 adults was conducted in 2008. Health literacy was measured using the Mandarin Health Literacy Scale. Health status was measured based on self-rated physical and mental health. Health care utilization was measured based on self-reported outpatient clinic visits, emergency room visits, and hospitalizations. Results Approximately thirty percent of adults were found to have low (inadequate or marginal) health literacy. They tended to be older, have fewer years of schooling, lower household income, and reside in less populated areas. Inadequate health literacy was associated with poorer mental health (OR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.35-0.91). No association was found between health literacy and health care utilization even after adjusting for other covariates. Conclusions Low (inadequate and marginal) health literacy is prevalent in Taiwan. High prevalence of low health literacy is not necessarily indicative of the need for interventions. Systematic efforts to evaluate the impact of low health literacy on health outcomes in other countries would help to illuminate features of health care delivery and financing systems that may mitigate the adverse health effects of low health literacy.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/78252/1/1471-2458-10-614.xmlhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/78252/2/1471-2458-10-614.pdfPeer Reviewe

The serpentine mitral valve and cerebral embolism

Valvular strands, well-delineated filiform masses, attached to cardiac valve edges are associated with cerebral embolism and stroke. Strokes, caused by emboli from valvular strands, tend to occur among younger persons

Sunscreens - Which and what for?

It is well established that sun exposure is the main cause for the development of skin cancer. Chronic continuous UV radiation is believed to induce malignant melanoma, whereas intermittent high-dose UV exposure contributes to the occurrence of actinic keratosis as precursor lesions of squamous cell carcinoma as well as basal cell carcinoma. Not only photocarcinogenesis but also the mechanisms of photoaging have recently become apparent. In this respect the use of sunscreens seemed to prove to be more and more important and popular within the last decades. However, there is still inconsistency about the usefulness of sunscreens. Several studies show that inadequate use and incomplete UV spectrum efficacy may compromise protection more than previously expected. The sunscreen market is crowded by numerous products. Inorganic sunscreens such as zinc oxide and titanium oxide have a wide spectral range of activity compared to most of the organic sunscreen products. It is not uncommon for organic sunscreens to cause photocontact allergy, but their cosmetic acceptability is still superior to the one given by inorganic sunscreens. Recently, modern galenic approaches such as micronization and encapsulation allow the development of high-quality inorganic sunscreens. The potential systemic toxicity of organic sunscreens has lately primarily been discussed controversially in public, and several studies show contradictory results. Although a matter of debate, at present the sun protection factor (SPF) is the most reliable information for the consumer as a measure of sunscreen filter efficacy. In this context additional tests have been introduced for the evaluation of not only the protective effect against erythema but also protection against UV-induced immunological and mutational effects. Recently, combinations of UV filters with agents active in DNA repair have been introduced in order to improve photoprotection. This article reviews the efficacy of sunscreens in the prevention of epithelial and nonepithelial skin cancer, the effect on immunosuppression and the value of the SPF as well as new developments on the sunscreen market. Copyright (C) 2005 S. Karger AG, Basel

Eta Carinae and the Luminous Blue Variables

We evaluate the place of Eta Carinae amongst the class of luminous blue variables (LBVs) and show that the LBV phenomenon is not restricted to extremely luminous objects like Eta Car, but extends luminosities as low as log(L/Lsun) = 5.4 - corresponding to initial masses ~25 Msun, and final masses as low as ~10-15 Msun. We present a census of S Doradus variability, and discuss basic LBV properties, their mass-loss behaviour, and whether at maximum light they form pseudo-photospheres. We argue that those objects that exhibit giant Eta Car-type eruptions are most likely related to the more common type of S Doradus variability. Alternative atmospheric models as well as sub-photospheric models for the instability are presented, but the true nature of the LBV phenomenon remains as yet elusive. We end with a discussion on the evolutionary status of LBVs - highlighting recent indications that some LBVs may be in a direct pre-supernova state, in contradiction to the standard paradigm for massive star evolution.Comment: 27 pages, 6 figures, Review Chapter in "Eta Carinae and the supernova imposters" (eds R. Humphreys and K. Davidson) new version submitted to Springe

A Microsoft HoloLens Mixed Reality Surgical Simulator for Patient-Specific Hip Arthroplasty Training

Surgical simulation can offer novice surgeons an opportunity to practice skills outside the operating theatre in a safe controlled environment. According to literature evidence, nowadays there are very few training simulators available for Hip Arthroplasty (HA). In a previous study we have presented a physical simulator based on a lower torso phantom including a patient-specific hemi-pelvis replica embedded in a soft synthetic foam. This work explores the use of Microsoft HoloLens technology to enrich the physical patient-specific simulation with the implementation of wearable mixed reality functionalities. Our HA multimodal simulator based on mixed reality using the HoloLens is described by illustrating the overall system, and by summarizing the main phases of the design and development. Finally, we present a preliminary qualitative study with seven subjects (5 medical students, and 2 orthopedic surgeons) showing encouraging results that suggest the suitability of the HoloLens for the proposed application. However, further studies need to be conducted to perform a quantitative test of the registration accuracy of the virtual content, and to confirm qualitative results in a larger cohort of subjects

Combining hippocampal volume metrics to better understand Alzheimer's disease progression in at-risk individuals

To date nearly all clinical trials of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) therapies have failed. These failures are, at least in part, attributable to poor endpoint choice and to inadequate recruitment criteria. Recently, focus has shifted to targeting at-risk populations in the preclinical stages of AD thus improved predictive markers for identifying individuals likely to progress to AD are crucial to help inform the sample of individuals to be recruited into clinical trials. We focus on hippocampal volume (HV) and assess the added benefit of combining HV and rate of hippocampal atrophy over time in relation to disease progression. Following the cross-validation of previously published estimates of the predictive value of HV, we consider a series of combinations of HV metrics and show that a combination of HV and rate of hippocampal atrophy characterises disease progression better than either measure individually. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the risk of disease progression associated with HV metrics does not differ significantly between clinical states. HV and rate of hippocampal atrophy should therefore be used in tandem when describing AD progression in at-risk individuals. Analyses also suggest that the effects of HV metrics are constant across the continuum of the early stages of the disease