Edge-Based Compartmental Modeling for Infectious Disease Spread Part III: Disease and Population Structure

We consider the edge-based compartmental models for infectious disease spread introduced in Part I. These models allow us to consider standard SIR diseases spreading in random populations. In this paper we show how to handle deviations of the disease or population from the simplistic assumptions of Part I. We allow the population to have structure due to effects such as demographic detail or multiple types of risk behavior the disease to have more complicated natural history. We introduce these modifications in the static network context, though it is straightforward to incorporate them into dynamic networks. We also consider serosorting, which requires using the dynamic network models. The basic methods we use to derive these generalizations are widely applicable, and so it is straightforward to introduce many other generalizations not considered here

A statistical network analysis of the HIV/AIDS epidemics in Cuba

The Cuban contact-tracing detection system set up in 1986 allowed the reconstruction and analysis of the sexual network underlying the epidemic (5,389 vertices and 4,073 edges, giant component of 2,386 nodes and 3,168 edges), shedding light onto the spread of HIV and the role of contact-tracing. Clustering based on modularity optimization provides a better visualization and understanding of the network, in combination with the study of covariates. The graph has a globally low but heterogeneous density, with clusters of high intraconnectivity but low interconnectivity. Though descriptive, our results pave the way for incorporating structure when studying stochastic SIR epidemics spreading on social networks

Phase transitions in contagion processes mediated by recurrent mobility patterns

Human mobility and activity patterns mediate contagion on many levels, including the spatial spread of infectious diseases, diffusion of rumors, and emergence of consensus. These patterns however are often dominated by specific locations and recurrent flows and poorly modeled by the random diffusive dynamics generally used to study them. Here we develop a theoretical framework to analyze contagion within a network of locations where individuals recall their geographic origins. We find a phase transition between a regime in which the contagion affects a large fraction of the system and one in which only a small fraction is affected. This transition cannot be uncovered by continuous deterministic models due to the stochastic features of the contagion process and defines an invasion threshold that depends on mobility parameters, providing guidance for controlling contagion spread by constraining mobility processes. We recover the threshold behavior by analyzing diffusion processes mediated by real human commuting data.Comment: 20 pages of Main Text including 4 figures, 7 pages of Supplementary Information; Nature Physics (2011

Formyl Peptide Receptor as a Novel Therapeutic Target for Anxiety-Related Disorders

Formyl peptide receptors (FPR) belong to a family of sensors of the immune system that detect microbe-associated molecules and inform various cellular and sensorial mechanisms to the presence of pathogens in the host. Here we demonstrate that Fpr2/3-deficient mice show a distinct profile of behaviour characterised by reduced anxiety in the marble burying and light-dark box paradigms, increased exploratory behaviour in an open-field, together with superior performance on a novel object recognition test. Pharmacological blockade with a formyl peptide receptor antagonist, Boc2, in wild type mice reproduced most of the behavioural changes observed in the Fpr2/3(-/-) mice, including a significant improvement in novel object discrimination and reduced anxiety in a light/dark shuttle test. These effects were associated with reduced FPR signalling in the gut as shown by the significant reduction in the levels of p-p38. Collectively, these findings suggest that homeostatic FPR signalling exerts a modulatory effect on anxiety-like behaviours. These findings thus suggest that therapies targeting FPRs may be a novel approach to ameliorate behavioural abnormalities present in neuropsychiatric disorders at the cognitive-emotional interface

Factors Determining Nestedness in Complex Networks

Understanding the causes and effects of network structural features is a key task in deciphering complex systems. In this context, the property of network nestedness has aroused a fair amount of interest as regards ecological networks. Indeed, Bastolla et al. introduced a simple measure of network nestedness which opened the door to analytical understanding, allowing them to conclude that biodiversity is strongly enhanced in highly nested mutualistic networks. Here, we suggest a slightly refined version of such a measure of nestedness and study how it is influenced by the most basic structural properties of networks, such as degree distribution and degree-degree correlations (i.e. assortativity). We find that most of the empirically found nestedness stems from heterogeneity in the degree distribution. Once such an influence has been discounted – as a second factor – we find that nestedness is strongly correlated with disassortativity and hence – as random networks have been recently found to be naturally disassortative – they also tend to be naturally nested just as the result of chance.This work was supported by Junta de Andalucia projects FQM-01505 and P09-FQM4682, and by Spanish MEC-FEDER project FIS2009-08451. S.J. is grateful for financial support from the European Commision under the Marie Curie Intra-European Fellowship Programme PIEF-GA-2010-276454

Folic acid fortification and public health: Report on threshold doses above which unmetabolised folic acid appear in serum

BACKGROUND: All flour in the USA is fortified with folic acid at a level of 140 μg/100 g which is estimated to supply an extra 100 μg daily to the average diet. Some researchers have advocated that this be increased to double and even four times this amount. Based on previous research these higher levels are likely to lead to the appearance of unmetabolised vitamin in the circulation, which may have safety implications for sub-groups of the population. The UK and the Republic of Ireland will likely introduce mandatory fortification also in the next year or so. The aim of this study was to capture the short-term effect of folic acid fortification on unmetabolised folic acid in serum after chronic consumption of folic acid. METHODS: After pre-saturation with 400 μg folic acid supplements daily for 14-weeks, healthy folate replete adults (n = 20) consumed folic acid fortified bread, at three different levels (400 μg, 200 μg, 100 μg) over a period of one week each. The dose was administered in two-equal sized slices consumed at 09.00 hrs and 13.00 hrs. Serum samples for total folate and folic acid were collected at baseline, after 14-weeks of supplementation, and pre and post (at 1, 2, 3 and 4 hours) each dose tested. RESULTS: Unmetabolised folic acid was detected after the 14-week supplementation period. Folic acid was not detected in either the 200 μg or 100 μg (current US regime) doses tested but was present at the highest level (400 μg) tested. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that persons exposed to the current US fortification programme supplying an average of 100 μg per day or less are unlikely to have unmetabolised folic acid in serum. It also seems that daily consumption of the higher level of 200 μg or less is unlikely to be problematic. Increasing the level however to 400 μg on the other hand is likely to lead to unmetabolised folic acid appearance

Vitamin status and cognitive function in a long-term care population

BACKGROUND: Ageing can be associated with poor dietary intake, reduced nutrient absorption, and less efficient utilization of nutrients. Loss of memory and related cognitive function are also common among older persons. This study aimed to measure the prevalence of inadequate vitamin status among long-term care patients and determine if an association exists between vitamin status and each of three variables; cognitive function, vitamin supplementation, and medications which alter gastric acid levels. METHODS: Seventy-five patients in a long-term care hospital in Guelph, Ontario were recruited to a cross-sectional study. 47 were female and the mean age was 80.7 (+/-11.5) years, ranging from 48 to 100 years. Blood was used to measure levels of vitamins B12 (cobalamin), B6 (pyridoxal-5'-phosphate/PLP), erythrocyte folate, vitamin B3 (niacin) and homocysteine (Hcy). The Standardized Mini-Mental State Examination (SMMSE) was administered to measure cognitive function. A list of medications and vitamin supplementation for each patient was provided by the pharmacy. RESULTS: The prevalence of low vitamin (B12, B6, erythrocyte folate, niacin) or high metabolite (homocysteine) levels among 75 patients were as follows: B12 <148 pmol/L in 5/75 (6.7%); B12 between 148 and 221 pmol/L in 26/75 (34.7%); B6 ≤30 nmol/L in 4/75 (5.3%); erythrocyte folate <370 nmol/L in 1/75 (1.3%); niacin ratio ≤1 in 20/75 (26.7%); homocysteine >13.3 μmol/L in 31/75 (41.3%). There was no significant difference among residents grouped into marked (n = 44), mild (n = 14), or normal (n = 9) cognitive function when evaluating the effect of vitamin status. There were no significant differences in mean B12 and homocysteine levels between users and non-users of drug therapy (Losec, Zantac, or Axid). Compared to vitamin supplement non-users, supplemented residents had significantly higher mean B12 (p < 0.0001) and erythrocyte folate (p < 0.05) concentrations and significantly lower mean homocysteine (p < 0.01) levels; 229.1 versus 423.6 pmol/L for B12, 882.9 versus 1043.6 nmol/L for erythrocyte folate and 14.4 versus 12.0 μmol/L for homocysteine. CONCLUSION: Given the prevalence data on vitamin status in this sample population, the possible benefits of vitamin supplementation should be considered in clinical intervention studies using these populations of elderly

vCJD risk in the Republic of Ireland

BACKGROUND: The Republic of Ireland has the second highest incidence of BSE worldwide. Only a single case of vCJD has been identified to date. METHODS: We estimate the total future number of clinical cases of vCJD using an established mathematical model, and based on infectivity of bovine tissue calculated from UK data and on the relative exposure to BSE contaminated meat. RESULTS: We estimate 1 future clinical case (95% CI 0 – 15) of vCJD in the Republic of Ireland. Irish exposure is from BSE infected indigenous beef products and from imported UK beef products. Additionally, 2.5% of the Irish population was exposed to UK beef through residing in the UK during the 'at-risk' period. The relative proportion of risk attributable to each of these three exposures individually is 2:2:1 respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The low numbers of future vCJD cases estimated in this study is reassuring for the Irish population and for other countries with a similar level of BSE exposure

Sex-specific regulation of chemokine Cxcl5/6 controls neutrophil recruitment and tissue injury in acute inflammatory states

This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.Barts and The London Trustees Studentship (SM), Marie Curie fellowships (MB, JD), Arthritis Research UK career development fellowship (JW), William Harvey Research Foundation grant (JW/RSS), Kidney Research UK fellowship (NSAP), Barts and The London Vacation Scholarship (ISN), Wellcome Trust senior fellowship (DWG), and a Wellcome Trust career development fellowship (RSS). This work forms part of the research themes contributing to the translational research portfolio of Barts and The London Cardiovascular Biomedical Research Unit, which is supported and funded by National Institute for Health Researc