The impact of the demographic transition on dengue in Thailand: Insights from a statistical analysis and mathematical modeling

Background: An increase in the average age of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) cases has been reported in Thailand. The cause of this increase is not known. Possible explanations include a reduction in transmission due to declining mosquito populations, declining contact between human and mosquito, and changes in reporting. We propose that a demographic shift toward lower birth and death rates has reduced dengue transmission and lengthened the interval between large epidemics. Methods and Findings: Using data from each of the 72 provinces of Thailand, we looked for associations between force of infection (a measure of hazard, defined as the rate per capita at which susceptible individuals become infected) and demographic and climactic variables. We estimated the force of infection from the age distribution of cases from 1985 to 2005. We find that the force of infection has declined by 2% each year since a peak in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Contrary to recent findings suggesting that the incidence of DHF has increased in Thailand, we find a small but statistically significant decline in DHF incidence since 1985 in a majority of provinces. The strongest predictor of the change in force of infection and the mean force of infection is the median age of the population. Using mathematical simulations of dengue transmission we show that a reduced birth rate and a shift in the population's age structure can explain the shift in the age distribution of cases, reduction of the force of infection, and increase in the periodicity of multiannual oscillations of DHF incidence in the absence of other changes. Conclusions: Lower birth and death rates decrease the flow of susceptible individuals into the population and increase the longevity of immune individuals. The increase in the proportion of the population that is immune increases the likelihood that an infectious mosquito will feed on an immune individual, reducing the force of infection. Though the force of infection has decreased by half, we find that the critical vaccination fraction has not changed significantly, declining from an average of 85% to 80%. Clinical guidelines should consider the impact of continued increases in the age of dengue cases in Thailand. Countries in the region lagging behind Thailand in the demographic transition may experience the same increase as their population ages. The impact of demographic changes on the force of infection has been hypothesized for other diseases, but, to our knowledge, this is the first observation of this phenomenon

Autonomic nervous system dysfunction predicts poor prognosis in patients with mild to moderate tetanus

BACKGROUND: Autonomic nervous system (ANS) dysfunction is present in up to one third of patients with tetanus. The prognostic value of ANS dysfunction is known in severe tetanus but its value is not well established in mild to moderate tetanus. METHODS: Medical records of all patients admitted with tetanus at two academic tertiary care centers in Karachi, Pakistan were reviewed. The demographic, clinical and laboratory data was recorded and analyzed. ANS dysfunction was defined as presence of labile or persistent hypertension or hypotension and sinus tachycardia, tachyarrythmia or bradycardia on EKG. Patients were divided into two groups based on presence of ANS dysfunction (ANS group and non ANS group). Tetanus severity was classified on the basis of Ablett criteria. RESULTS: Ninety six (64 males; 32 females) patients were admitted with the diagnosis over a period of 10 years. ANS group had 31 (32%) patients while non ANS group comprised of 65 (68%) patients. Both groups matched for age, gender, symptom severity, use of tetanus immunoglobulin and antibiotics. Twelve patients in ANS group had mild to moderate tetanus (Ablett I and II) and 19 patients had severe/very severe tetanus (Ablett III and IV). Fifteen (50%) patients in ANS group required ventilation as compared to 28 (45%) in non-ANS group (p = 0.09). Fourteen (47%) patients died in ANS group as compared to 10 (15%) in non ANS group (p= 0.002). Out of those 14 patients died in ANS group, six patients had mild to moderate tetanus and eight patients had severe/ very severe tetanus. Major cause of death was cardiac arrhythmias (13/14; 93%) in ANS group and respiratory arrest (7/10; 70%) in non ANS group. Ten (33%) patients had complete recovery in ANS group while in non ANS group 35(48%) patients had complete recovery (p= 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: ANS dysfunction was present in one third of our tetanus population. 40% patients with ANS dysfunction had only mild to moderate tetanus. ANS dysfunction, irrespective of the need of mechanical ventilation or severity of tetanus, predicted poor outcome

A ‘quiet revolution’? The impact of Training Schools on initial teacher training partnerships

This paper discusses the impact on initial teacher training of a new policy initiative in England: the introduction of Training Schools. First, the Training School project is set in context by exploring the evolution of a partnership approach to initial teacher training in England. Ways in which Training Schools represent a break with established practice are considered together with their implications for the dominant mode of partnership led by higher education institutions (HEIs). The capacity of Training Schools to achieve their own policy objectives is examined, especially their efficacy as a strategy for managing innovation and the dissemination of innovation. The paper ends by focusing on a particular Training School project which has adopted an unusual approach to its work and enquires whether this alternative approach could offer a more profitable way forward. During the course of the paper, five different models of partnership are considered: collaborative, complementary, HEI-led, school-led and partnership within a partnership

The Occurrence of Photorhabdus-Like Toxin Complexes in Bacillus thuringiensis

Recently, genomic sequencing of a Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) isolate from our collection revealed the presence of an apparent operon encoding an insecticidal toxin complex (Tca) similar to that first described from the entomopathogen Photorhabdus luminescens. To determine whether these genes are widespread among Bt strains, we screened isolates from the collection for the presence of tccC, one of the genes needed for the expression of fully functional toxin complexes. Among 81 isolates chosen to represent commonly encountered biochemical phenotypes, 17 were found to possess a tccC. Phylogenetic analysis of the 81 isolates by multilocus sequence typing revealed that all the isolates possessing a tccC gene were restricted to two sequence types related to Bt varieties morrisoni, tenebrionis, israelensis and toumanoffi. Sequencing of the ∼17 kb tca operon from two isolates representing each of the two sequence types revealed >99% sequence identity. Optical mapping of DNA from Bt isolates representing each of the sequence types revealed nearly identical plasmids of ca. 333 and 338 kbp, respectively. Selected isolates were found to be toxic to gypsy moth larvae, but were not as effective as a commercial strain of Bt kurstaki. Some isolates were found to inhibit growth of Colorado potato beetle. Custom Taqman® relative quantitative real-time PCR assays for Tc-encoding Bt revealed both tcaA and tcaB genes were expressed within infected gypsy moth larvae

Radical SAM enzyme QueE defines a new minimal core fold and metal-dependent mechanism

7-carboxy-7-deazaguanine synthase (QueE) catalyzes a key S-adenosyl-L-methionine (AdoMet)- and Mg[superscript 2+]-dependent radical-mediated ring contraction step, which is common to the biosynthetic pathways of all deazapurine-containing compounds. QueE is a member of the AdoMet radical superfamily, which employs the 5′-deoxyadenosyl radical from reductive cleavage of AdoMet to initiate chemistry. To provide a mechanistic rationale for this elaborate transformation, we present the crystal structure of a QueE along with structures of pre- and post-turnover states. We find that substrate binds perpendicular to the [4Fe-4S]-bound AdoMet, exposing its C6 hydrogen atom for abstraction and generating the binding site for Mg[superscript 2+], which coordinates directly to the substrate. The Burkholderia multivorans structure reported here varies from all other previously characterized members of the AdoMet radical superfamily in that it contains a hypermodified ([β [subscript 6] over α [subscript 3]]) protein core and an expanded cluster-binding motif, CX[subscript 14]CX[subscript 2]C.United States. Dept. of Energy. Office of Biological and Environmental ResearchUnited States. Dept. of Energy. Office of Basic Energy SciencesNational Center for Research Resources (U.S.) (P41RR012408)National Institute of General Medical Sciences (U.S.) (P41GM103473)National Center for Research Resources (U.S.) (5P41RR015301-10)National Institute of General Medical Sciences (U.S.) (8 P41 GM 103403-10)United States. Dept. of Energy (Contract DE-AC02-06CH11357

Radiative contribution to neutrino masses and mixing in μν\mu\nuSSM

In an extension of the minimal supersymmetric standard model (popularly known as the $\mu\nu$SSM), three right handed neutrino superfields are introduced to solve the $\mu$-problem and to accommodate the non-vanishing neutrino masses and mixing. Neutrino masses at the tree level are generated through $R-$parity violation and seesaw mechanism. We have analyzed the full effect of one-loop contributions to the neutrino mass matrix. We show that the current three flavour global neutrino data can be accommodated in the $\mu\nu$SSM, for both the tree level and one-loop corrected analyses. We find that it is relatively easier to accommodate the normal hierarchical mass pattern compared to the inverted hierarchical or quasi-degenerate case, when one-loop corrections are included.Comment: 51 pages, 14 figures (58 .eps files), expanded introduction, other minor changes, references adde

Risk factor screening to identify women requiring oral glucose tolerance testing to diagnose gestational diabetes : a systematic review and meta-analysis and analysis of two pregnancy cohorts

BACKGROUND: Easily identifiable risk factors including: obesity and ethnicity at high risk of diabetes are commonly used to indicate which women should be offered the oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) to diagnose gestational diabetes (GDM). Evidence regarding these risk factors is limited however. We conducted a systematic review (SR) and meta-analysis and individual participant data (IPD) analysis to evaluate the performance of risk factors in identifying women with GDM. METHODS: We searched MEDLINE, Medline in Process, Embase, Maternity and Infant Care and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) up to August 2016 and conducted additional reference checking. We included observational, cohort, case-control and cross-sectional studies reporting the performance characteristics of risk factors used to identify women at high risk of GDM. We had access to IPD from the Born in Bradford and Atlantic Diabetes in Pregnancy cohorts, all pregnant women in the two cohorts with data on risk factors and OGTT results were included. RESULTS: Twenty nine published studies with 211,698 women for the SR and a further 14,103 women from two birth cohorts (Born in Bradford and the Atlantic Diabetes in Pregnancy study) for the IPD analysis were included. Six studies assessed the screening performance of guidelines; six examined combinations of risk factors; eight evaluated the number of risk factors and nine examined prediction models or scores. Meta-analysis using data from published studies suggests that irrespective of the method used, risk factors do not identify women with GDM well. Using IPD and combining risk factors to produce the highest sensitivities, results in low specificities (and so higher false positives). Strategies that use the risk factors of age (>25 or >30) and BMI (>25 or 30) perform as well as other strategies with additional risk factors included. CONCLUSIONS: Risk factor screening methods are poor predictors of which pregnant women will be diagnosed with GDM. A simple approach of offering an OGTT to women 25 years or older and/or with a BMI of 25kg/m2 or more is as good as more complex risk prediction models. Research to identify more accurate (bio)markers is needed. Systematic Review Registration: PROSPERO CRD42013004608

The Interplay between Protein L-Isoaspartyl Methyltransferase Activity and Insulin-Like Signaling to Extend Lifespan in Caenorhabditis elegans

The protein L-isoaspartyl-O-methyltransferase functions to initiate the repair of isomerized aspartyl and asparaginyl residues that spontaneously accumulate with age in a variety of organisms. Caenorhabditis elegans nematodes lacking the pcm-1 gene encoding this enzyme display a normal lifespan and phenotype under standard laboratory growth conditions. However, significant defects in development, egg laying, dauer survival, and autophagy have been observed in pcm-1 mutant nematodes when deprived of food and when exposed to oxidative stress. Interestingly, overexpression of this repair enzyme in both Drosophila and C. elegans extends adult lifespan under thermal stress. In this work, we show the involvement of the insulin/insulin-like growth factor-1 signaling (IIS) pathway in PCM-1-dependent lifespan extension in C. elegans. We demonstrate that reducing the levels of the DAF-16 downstream transcriptional effector of the IIS pathway by RNA interference reduces the lifespan extension resulting from PCM-1 overexpression. Using quantitative real-time PCR analysis, we show the up-regulation of DAF-16-dependent stress response genes in the PCM-1 overexpressor animals compared to wild-type and pcm-1 mutant nematodes under mild thermal stress conditions. Additionally, similar to other long-lived C. elegans mutants in the IIS pathway, including daf-2 and age-1 mutants, PCM-1 overexpressor adult animals display increased resistance to severe thermal stress, whereas pcm-1 mutant animals survive less long under these conditions. Although we observe a higher accumulation of damaged proteins in pcm-1 mutant nematodes, the basal level of isoaspartyl residues detected in wild-type animals was not reduced by PCM-1 overexpression. Our results support a signaling role for the protein L-isoaspartyl methyltransferase in lifespan extension that involves the IIS pathway, but that may be independent of its function in overall protein repair

Three novel and the common Arg677Ter RP1 protein truncating mutations causing autosomal dominant retinitis pigmentosa in a Spanish population

BACKGROUND: Retinitis pigmentosa (RP), a clinically and genetically heterogeneous group of retinal degeneration disorders affecting the photoreceptor cells, is one of the leading causes of genetic blindness. Mutations in the photoreceptor-specific gene RP1 account for 3–10% of cases of autosomal dominant RP (adRP). Most of these mutations are clustered in a 500 bp region of exon 4 of RP1. METHODS: Denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) analysis and direct genomic sequencing were used to evaluate the 5' coding region of exon 4 of the RP1 gene for mutations in 150 unrelated index adRP patients. Ophthalmic and electrophysiological examination of RP patients and relatives according to pre-existing protocols were carried out. RESULTS: Three novel disease-causing mutations in RP1 were detected: Q686X, K705fsX712 and K722fsX737, predicting truncated proteins. One novel missense mutation, Thr752Met, was detected in one family but the mutation does not co-segregate in the family, thereby excluding this amino acid variation in the protein as a cause of the disease. We found the Arg677Ter mutation, previously reported in other populations, in two independent families, confirming that this mutation is also present in a Spanish population. CONCLUSION: Most of the mutations reported in the RP1 gene associated with adRP are expected to encode mutant truncated proteins that are approximately one third or half of the size of wild type protein. Patients with mutations in RP1 showed mild RP with variability in phenotype severity. We also observed several cases of non-penetrant mutations