Practical approaches to Bayesian sample size determination in non-inferiority trials with binary outcomes.

Bayesian analysis of a non-inferiority trial is advantageous in allowing direct probability statements to be made about the relative treatment difference rather than relying on an arbitrary and often poorly justified non-inferiority margin. When the primary analysis will be Bayesian, a Bayesian approach to sample size determination will often be appropriate for consistency with the analysis. We demonstrate three Bayesian approaches to choosing sample size for non-inferiority trials with binary outcomes and review their advantages and disadvantages. First, we present a predictive power approach for determining sample size using the probability that the trial will produce a convincing result in the final analysis. Next, we determine sample size by considering the expected posterior probability of non-inferiority in the trial. Finally, we demonstrate a precision-based approach. We apply these methods to a non-inferiority trial in antiretroviral therapy for treatment of HIV-infected children. A predictive power approach would be most accessible in practical settings, because it is analogous to the standard frequentist approach. Sample sizes are larger than with frequentist calculations unless an informative analysis prior is specified, because appropriate allowance is made for uncertainty in the assumed design parameters, ignored in frequentist calculations. An expected posterior probability approach will lead to a smaller sample size and is appropriate when the focus is on estimating posterior probability rather than on testing. A precision-based approach would be useful when sample size is restricted by limits on recruitment or costs, but it would be difficult to decide on sample size using this approach alone

Neuroactive steroids in depression and anxiety disorders: Clinical studies

Certain neuroactive steroids modulate ligand-gated ion channels via non-genomic mechanisms. Especially 3 alpha-reduced pregnane steroids are potent positive allosteric modulators of the gamma-aminobutyric acid type A (GABA(A)) receptor. During major depression, there is a disequilibrium of 3 alpha-reduced neuroactive steroids, which is corrected by clinically effective pharmacological treatment. To investigate whether these alterations are a general principle of successful antidepressant treatment, we studied the impact of nonpharmacological treatment options on neuroactive steroid concentrations during major depression. Neither partial sleep deprivation, transcranial magnetic stimulation, nor electroconvulsive therapy affected neuroactive steroid levels irrespectively of the response to these treatments. These studies suggest that the changes in neuroactive steroid concentrations observed after antidepressant pharmacotherapy more likely reflect distinct pharmacological properties of antidepressants rather than the clinical response. In patients with panic disorder, changes in neuroactive steroid composition have been observed opposite to those seen in depression. However, during experimentally induced panic induction either with cholecystokinine-tetrapeptide or sodium lactate, there was a pronounced decline in the concentrations of 3 alpha-reduced neuroactive steroids in patients with panic disorder, which might result in a decreased GABAergic tone. In contrast, no changes in neuroactive steroid concentrations could be observed in healthy controls with the exception of 3 alpha,5 alpha-tetrahydrodeoxycorticosterone. The modulation of GABA(A) receptors by neuroactive steroids might contribute to the pathophysiology of depression and anxiety disorders and might offer new targets for the development of novel anxiolytic compounds. Copyright (c) 2006 S. Karger AG, Basel

A cluster randomised feasibility study of an adolescent incentive intervention to increase uptake of HPV vaccination.

BACKGROUND: Uptake of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination is suboptimal among some groups. We aimed to determine the feasibility of undertaking a cluster randomised controlled trial (RCT) of incentives to improve HPV vaccination uptake by increasing consent form return. METHODS: An equal-allocation, two-arm cluster RCT design was used. We invited 60 London schools to participate. Those agreeing were randomised to either a standard invitation or incentive intervention arm, in which Year 8 girls had the chance to win a £50 shopping voucher if they returned a vaccination consent form, regardless of whether consent was provided. We collected data on school and parent participation rates and questionnaire response rates. Analyses were descriptive. RESULTS: Six schools completed the trial and only 3% of parents opted out. The response rate was 70% for the girls' questionnaire and 17% for the parents'. In the intervention arm, 87% of girls returned a consent form compared with 67% in the standard invitation arm. The proportion of girls whose parents gave consent for vaccination was higher in the intervention arm (76%) than the standard invitation arm (61%). CONCLUSIONS: An RCT of an incentive intervention is feasible. The intervention may improve vaccination uptake but a fully powered RCT is needed.British Journal of Cancer advance online publication: 22 August 2017; doi:10.1038/bjc.2017.284 www.bjcancer.com

Novel curcumin- and emodin-related compounds identified by in silico 2D/3D conformer screening induce apoptosis in tumor cells

BACKGROUND: Inhibition of the COP9 signalosome (CSN) associated kinases CK2 and PKD by curcumin causes stabilization of the tumor suppressor p53. It has been shown that curcumin induces tumor cell death and apoptosis. Curcumin and emodin block the CSN-directed c-Jun signaling pathway, which results in diminished c-Jun steady state levels in HeLa cells. The aim of this work was to search for new CSN kinase inhibitors analogue to curcumin and emodin by means of an in silico screening method. METHODS: Here we present a novel method to identify efficient inhibitors of CSN-associated kinases. Using curcumin and emodin as lead structures an in silico screening with our in-house database containing more than 10(6 )structures was carried out. Thirty-five compounds were identified and further evaluated by the Lipinski's rule-of-five. Two groups of compounds can be clearly discriminated according to their structures: the curcumin-group and the emodin-group. The compounds were evaluated in in vitro kinase assays and in cell culture experiments. RESULTS: The data revealed 3 compounds of the curcumin-group (e.g. piceatannol) and 4 of the emodin-group (e.g. anthrachinone) as potent inhibitors of CSN-associated kinases. Identified agents increased p53 levels and induced apoptosis in tumor cells as determined by annexin V-FITC binding, DNA fragmentation and caspase activity assays. CONCLUSION: Our data demonstrate that the new in silico screening method is highly efficient for identifying potential anti-tumor drugs

Prognostic Factors of Long Term Disability Due to Mental Disorders: A Systematic Review

Introduction In the past few decades, mental health problems have increasingly contributed to sickness absence and long-term disability. However, little is known about prognostic factors of return to work (RTW) and disability of persons already on sick leave due to mental health problems. Understanding these factors may help to develop effective prevention and intervention strategies to shorten the duration of disability and facilitate RTW. Method We reviewed systematically current scientific evidence about prognostic factors for mental health related long term disability, RTW and symptom recovery. Searching PubMed, PsycINFO, Embase, Cinahl and Business Source Premier, we selected articles with a publication date from January 1990 to March 2009, describing longitudinal cohort studies with a follow-up period of at least 1 year. Participants were persons on sick leave or receiving disability benefit at baseline. We assessed the methodological quality of included studies using an established criteria list. Consistent findings in at least two high quality studies were defined as strong evidence and positive findings in one high quality study were defined as limited evidence. Results Out of 796 studies, we included seven articles, all of high methodological quality describing a range of prognostic factors, according to the ICF-model categorized as health-related, personal and external factors. We found strong evidence that older age (>50 years) is associated with continuing disability and longer time to RTW. There is limited evidence for the association of other personal factors (gender, education, history of previous sickness absence, negative recovery expectation, socio-economic status), health related (stress-related and shoulder/back pain, depression/anxiety disorder) and external i.e., job-related factors (unemployment, quality and continuity of occupational care, supervisor behavior) with disability and RTW. We found limited evidence for the association of personal/external factors (education, sole breadwinner, partial/full RTW, changing work tasks) with symptom recovery. Conclusion This systematic review identifies a number of prognostic factors, some more or less consistent with findings in related literature (mental health factors, age, history of previous sickness absence, negative recovery expectation, socio-economic status, unemployment, quality and continuity of occupational care), while other prognostic factors (gender, level of education, sole breadwinner, supervisor support) conflict with existing evidence. There is still great need for research on modifiable prognostic factors of continuing disability and RTW among benefit claimants with mental health problems. Recommendations are made as to directions and methodological quality of further research, i.e., prognostic cohort studies

Androgen receptor expresion in breast cancer: Relationship with clinicopathological characteristics of the tumors, prognosis, and expression of metalloproteases and their inhibitors

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In the present study we analyze, in patients with breast cancer, the tumor expression of androgen receptors (AR), its relationship with clinicopathological characteristics and with the expression of several matrix metalloproteases (MMPs) and their inhibitors (TIMPs), as well as with prognosis.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>An immunohistochemical study was performed using tissue microarrays and specific antibodies against AR, MMPs -1, -2, -7, -9, -11, -13, -14, and TIMPs -1, -2 and -3. More than 2,800 determinations on tumor specimens from 111 patients with primary invasive ductal carcinoma of the breast (52 with axillary lymph node metastases and 59 without them) and controls were performed. Staining results were categorized using a score based on the intensity of the staining and a specific software program calculated the percentage of immunostained cells automatically.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A total of 83 cases (74.8%) showed a positive immunostaining for AR, but with a wide variation in the staining score values. There were no significant associations between the total immunostaining scores for AR and any clinicopathological parameters. However, score values for MMP-1, -7 and -13, were significantly higher in AR-positive tumors than in AR-negative tumors. Likewise, when we considered the cellular type expressing each factor, we found that AR-positive tumors had a higher percentage of cases positive for MMP-1, -7, -11, and TIMP-2 in their malignant cells, as well as for MMP-1 in intratumoral fibroblasts. On the other hand, multivariate analysis demonstrated that patients with AR-positive tumors have a significant longer overall survival than those with AR-negative breast carcinomas (<it>p </it>= 0.03).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our results confirm that AR are commonly expressed in breast cancer, and are correlated with the expression of some MMPs and TIMP-2. Although we found a specific value of AR expression to be a prognostic indicator in breast cancer, the functional role of AR in these neoplasms is still unclear and further data are needed in order to clarify their biological signification in breast cancer.</p

Conservation implications of the mating system of the Pampa Hermosa landrace of peach palm analyzed with microsatellite markers

Peach palm (Bactris gasipaes) is cultivated by many indigenous and traditional communities from Amazonia to Central America for its edible fruits, and is currently important for its heart-of-palm. The objective of this study was to investigate the mating system of peach palm, as this is important for conservation and breeding. Eight microsatellite loci were used to genotype 24 open-pollinated progenies from three populations of the Pampa Hermosa landrace maintained in a progeny trial for genetic improvement. Both the multi-locus outcrossing rates (0.95 to 0.99) and the progeny level multi-locus outcrossing rates (0.9 to 1.0) were high, indicating that peach palm is predominantly allogamous. The outcrossing rates among relatives were significantly different from zero (0.101 to 0.202), providing evidence for considerable biparental inbreeding within populations, probably due to farmers planting seeds of a small number of open-pollinated progenies in the same plot. The correlations of paternity estimates were low (0.051 to 0.112), suggesting a large number of pollen sources (9 to 20) participating in pollination of individual fruit bunches. Effective population size estimates suggest that current germplasm collections are insufficient for long-term ex situ conservation. As with most underutilized crops, on farm conservation is the most important component of an integrated conservation strategy

Differential Effects of Migration and Deportation on HIV Infection among Male and Female Injection Drug Users in Tijuana, Mexico

HIV prevalence is rising, especially among high risk females in Tijuana, Baja California, a Mexico-US border city situated on major migration and drug trafficking routes. We compared factors associated with HIV infection among male and female injection drug users (IDUs) in Tijuana in an effort to inform HIV prevention and treatment programs. IDUs aged ≥18 years were recruited using respondent-driven sampling and underwent testing for HIV, syphilis and structured interviews. Logistic regression identified correlates of HIV infection, stratified by gender. Among 1056 IDUs, most were Mexican-born but 67% were born outside Tijuana. Reasons for moving to Tijuana included deportation from the US (56% for males, 29% for females), and looking for work/better life (34% for females, 15% for males). HIV prevalence was higher in females versus males (10.2% vs. 3.5%, p = 0.001). Among females (N = 158), factors independently associated with higher HIV prevalence included younger age, lifetime syphilis infection and living in Tijuana for longer durations. Among males (N = 898), factors independently associated with higher HIV prevalence were syphilis titers consistent with active infection, being arrested for having ‘track-marks’, having larger numbers of recent injection partners and living in Tijuana for shorter durations. An interaction between gender and number of years lived in Tijuana regressed on HIV infection was significant (p = 0.03). Upon further analysis, deportation from the U.S. explained the association between shorter duration lived in Tijuana and HIV infection among males; odds of HIV infection were four-fold higher among male injectors deported from the US, compared to other males, adjusting for all other significant correlates (p = 0.002). Geographic mobility has a profound influence on Tijuana's evolving HIV epidemic, and its impact is significantly modified by gender. Future studies are needed to elucidate the context of mobility and HIV acquisition in this region, and whether US immigration policies adversely affect HIV risk

Developmental Hippocampal Neuroplasticity in a Model of Nicotine Replacement Therapy during Pregnancy and Breastfeeding

The influence of developmental nicotine exposure on the brain represents an important health topic in light of the popularity of nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) as a smoking cessation method during pregnancy.In this study, we used a model of NRT during pregnancy and breastfeeding to explore the consequences of chronic developmental nicotine exposure on cerebral neuroplasticity in the offspring. We focused on two dynamic lifelong phenomena in the dentate gyrus (DG) of the hippocampus that are highly sensitive to the environment: granule cell neurogenesis and long-term potentiation (LTP).Pregnant rats were implanted with osmotic mini-pumps delivering either nicotine or saline solutions. Plasma nicotine and metabolite levels were measured in dams and offspring. Corticosterone levels, DG neurogenesis (cell proliferation, survival and differentiation) and glutamatergic electrophysiological activity were measured in pups.Juvenile (P15) and adolescent (P41) offspring exposed to nicotine throughout prenatal and postnatal development displayed no significant alteration in DG neurogenesis compared to control offspring. However, NRT-like nicotine exposure significantly increased LTP in the DG of juvenile offspring as measured in vitro from hippocampal slices, suggesting that the mechanisms underlying nicotine-induced LTP enhancement previously described in adult rats are already functional in pups.These results indicate that synaptic plasticity is disrupted in offspring breastfed by dams passively exposed to nicotine in an NRT-like fashion

The Combined Dexamethasone/CRH Test (DEX/CRH Test) and Prediction of Acute Treatment Response in Major Depression

In this study the predictive value of the combined dexamethasone/CRH test (DEX/CRH test) for acute antidepressant response was investigated. In 114 depressed inpatients suffering from unipolar or bipolar depression (sample 1) the DEX/CRH test was performed at admission and shortly before discharge. During their stay in the hospital patients received different antidepressant treatment regimens. At admission, the rate of nonsuppression (basal cortisol levels >75.3 nmol/l) was 24.6% and was not related to the later therapeutic response. Moreover, 45 out of 114 (39.5%) patients showed an enhancement of HPA axis function at discharge in spite of clinical improvement. In a second sample, 40 depressed patients were treated either with reboxetine or mirtazapine for 5 weeks. The DEX/CRH test was performed before, after 1 week, and after 5 weeks of pharmacotherapy. Attenuation of HPA axis activity after 1 week was associated with a more pronounced alleviation of depressive symptoms after 5-week mirtazapine treatment, whereas downregulation of HPA system activity after 5 weeks was related to clinical response to reboxetine. However, early improvement of HPA axis dysregulation was not necessarily followed by a beneficial treatment outcome. Taken together, performance of a single DEX/CRH test does not predict the therapeutic response. The best predictor for response seems to be an early attenuation of HPA axis activity within 1 or 2 weeks. However, early improvement of HPA system dysfunction is not a sufficient condition for a favourable response. Since a substantial part of depressive patients display a persistence of HPA axis hyperactivity at discharge, downregulation of HPA system function is not a necessary condition for acute clinical improvement either. Our data underline the importance of HPA axis dysregulation for treatment outcome in major depression, although restoration of HPA system dysfunction seems to be neither a necessary nor a sufficient determinant for acute treatment response