On tail trend detection: modeling relative risk

The climate change dispute is about changes over time of environmental characteristics (such as rainfall). Some people say that a possible change is not so much in the mean but rather in the extreme phenomena (that is, the average rainfall may not change much but heavy storms may become more or less frequent). The paper studies changes over time in the probability that some high threshold is exceeded. The model is such that the threshold does not need to be specified, the results hold for any high threshold. For simplicity a certain linear trend is studied depending on one real parameter. Estimation and testing procedures (is there a trend?) are developed. Simulation results are presented. The method is applied to trends in heavy rainfall at 18 gauging stations across Germany and The Netherlands. A tentative conclusion is that the trend seems to depend on whether or not a station is close to the sea.Comment: 38 page

Long-term evidence for ecological intensification as a pathway to sustainable agriculture

Ecological intensification (EI) could help return agriculture into a 'safe operating space' for humanity. Using a novel application of meta-analysis to data from 30 long-term experiments from Europe and Africa (comprising 25,565 yield records), we investigated how field-scale EI practices interact with each other, and with N fertilizer and tillage, in their effects on long-term crop yields. Here we confirmed that EI practices (specifically, increasing crop diversity and adding fertility crops and organic matter) have generally positive effects on the yield of staple crops. However, we show that EI practices have a largely substitutive interaction with N fertilizer, so that EI practices substantially increase yield at low N fertilizer doses but have minimal or no effect on yield at high N fertilizer doses. EI practices had comparable effects across different tillage intensities, and reducing tillage did not strongly affect yields.Intensifying food production sustainably is critical given growing demand and agriculture's environmental footprint. This meta-analysis finds that practices such as adding organic matter and increasing crop diversity can partly substitute for nitrogen fertilizer to sustain or increase yields

Statistical modeling of ground motion relations for seismic hazard analysis

We introduce a new approach for ground motion relations (GMR) in the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), being influenced by the extreme value theory of mathematical statistics. Therein, we understand a GMR as a random function. We derive mathematically the principle of area-equivalence; wherein two alternative GMRs have an equivalent influence on the hazard if these GMRs have equivalent area functions. This includes local biases. An interpretation of the difference between these GMRs (an actual and a modeled one) as a random component leads to a general overestimation of residual variance and hazard. Beside this, we discuss important aspects of classical approaches and discover discrepancies with the state of the art of stochastics and statistics (model selection and significance, test of distribution assumptions, extreme value statistics). We criticize especially the assumption of logarithmic normally distributed residuals of maxima like the peak ground acceleration (PGA). The natural distribution of its individual random component (equivalent to exp(epsilon_0) of Joyner and Boore 1993) is the generalized extreme value. We show by numerical researches that the actual distribution can be hidden and a wrong distribution assumption can influence the PSHA negatively as the negligence of area equivalence does. Finally, we suggest an estimation concept for GMRs of PSHA with a regression-free variance estimation of the individual random component. We demonstrate the advantages of event-specific GMRs by analyzing data sets from the PEER strong motion database and estimate event-specific GMRs. Therein, the majority of the best models base on an anisotropic point source approach. The residual variance of logarithmized PGA is significantly smaller than in previous models. We validate the estimations for the event with the largest sample by empirical area functions. etc

Left gaze bias in humans, rhesus monkeys and domestic dogs

While viewing faces, human adults often demonstrate a natural gaze bias towards the left visual field, that is, the right side of the viewee’s face is often inspected first and for longer periods. Using a preferential looking paradigm, we demonstrate that this bias is neither uniquely human nor limited to primates, and provide evidence to help elucidate its biological function within a broader social cognitive framework. We observed that 6-month-old infants showed a wider tendency for left gaze preference towards objects and faces of different species and orientation, while in adults the bias appears only towards upright human faces. Rhesus monkeys showed a left gaze bias towards upright human and monkey faces, but not towards inverted faces. Domestic dogs, however, only demonstrated a left gaze bias towards human faces, but not towards monkey or dog faces, nor to inanimate object images. Our findings suggest that face- and species-sensitive gaze asymmetry is more widespread in the animal kingdom than previously recognised, is not constrained by attentional or scanning bias, and could be shaped by experience to develop adaptive behavioural significance

An organoid biobank for childhood kidney cancers that captures disease and tissue heterogeneity

Kidney tumours are among the most common solid tumours in children, comprising distinct subtypes differing in many aspects, including cell-of-origin, genetics, and pathology. Pre-clinical cell models capturing the disease heterogeneity are currently lacking. Here, we describe the first paediatric cancer organoid biobank. It contains tumour and matching normal kidney organoids from over 50 children with different subtypes of kidney cancer, including Wilms tumours, malignant rhabdoid tumours, renal cell carcinomas, and congenital mesoblastic nephromas. Paediatric kidney tumour organoids retain key properties of native tumours, useful for revealing patient-specific drug sensitivities. Using single cell RNA-sequencing and high resolution 3D imaging, we further demonstrate that organoid cultures derived from Wilms tumours consist of multiple different cell types, including epithelial, stromal and blastemal-like cells. Our organoid biobank captures the heterogeneity of paediatric kidney tumours, providing a representative collection of well-characterised models for basic cancer research, drug-screening and personalised medicine

Interpersonal psychotherapy (IPT) for late-life depression in general practice: uptake and satisfaction by patients, therapists and physicians

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Interpersonal Psychotherapy (IPT) is recommended in most depression treatment guidelines and proved to be a suitable treatment for elderly depressed patients. Despite the favorable results of IPT in research populations, the dissemination to general practice is surprisingly limited. Little is known about uptake and satisfaction when this therapy is introduced into real-life general practice.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Motivation and evaluation of patients, GPs and therapists were recorded and organizational barriers described alongside a randomized controlled trial. IPT, given by mental health workers, was compared with usual general practitioner (GP) care. Included were patients (≥55 years) who met the DSM-IV criteria for major depressive disorder.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Patients were motivated for the psychotherapy intervention: of the 205 eligible patients, 143 (70%) entered the study, and of the 69 patients who were offered IPT, 77% complied with the treatment. IPT proved to be an attractive therapy for patients as well as for therapists from mental health organizations. General practitioners evaluated the intervention positively afterwards, mainly because of the time-limited and structured approach. Organizational barriers: no IPT therapists were available; an IPT trainer and supervisor had to be trained and training materials had to be developed and translated. Additionally, there was a lack of office space in some general practices; for therapists from private practices it was not feasible to participate because of financial reasons. IPT was superior to usual care in patients with moderate to severe depression.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>As we succeeded in delivering IPT in primary care practice, and as IPT was superior to usual care, there are grounds to support the implementation of IPT for depressed elderly patients within general practice, as long as the practices have room for the therapists and financial barriers can be overcome. Consolidation may be achieved by making this intervention available through practice nurses or community psychiatric nurses who deliver IPT as part of a more comprehensive depression management program.</p

Concepts of Cardiac Development in Retrospect

Recent research, enabled by powerful molecular techniques, has revolutionized our concepts of cardiac development. It was firmly established that the early heart tube gives rise to the left ventricle only, and that the remainder of the myocardium is recruited from surrounding mesoderm during subsequent development. Also, the cardiac chambers were shown not to be derived from the entire looping heart tube, but only from the myocardium at its outer curvatures. Intriguingly, many years ago, classic experimental embryological studies reached very similar conclusions. However, with the current scientific emphasis on molecular mechanisms, old morphological insights became underexposed. Since cardiac development occurs in an architecturally complex and dynamic fashion, molecular insights can only fully be exploited when placed in a proper morphological context. In this communication we present excerpts of important embryological studies of the pioneers of experimental cardiac embryology of the previous century, to relate insights from the past to current observations

Analysis of jak2 catalytic function by peptide microarrays: The role of the JH2 domain and V617F mutation

Janus kinase 2 (JAK2) initiates signaling from several cytokine receptors and is required for biological responses such as erythropoiesis. JAK2 activity is controlled by regulatory proteins such as Suppressor of Cytokine Signaling (SOCS) proteins and protein tyrosine phosphatases. JAK2 activity is also intrinsically controlled by regulatory domains, where the pseudokinase (JAK homology 2, JH2) domain has been shown to play an essential role. The physiological role of the JH2 domain in the regulation of JAK2 activity was highlighted by the discovery of the acquired missense point mutation V617F in myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPN). Hence, determining the precise role of this domain is critical for understanding disease pathogenesis and design of new treatment modalities. Here, we have evaluated the effect of inter-domain interactions in kinase activity and substrate specificity. By using for the first time purified recombinant JAK2 proteins and a novel peptide micro-array platform, we have determined initial phosphorylation rates and peptide substrate preference for the recombinant kinase domain (JH1) of JAK2, and two constructs comprising both the kinase and pseudokinase domains (JH1-JH2) of JAK2. The data demonstrate that (i) JH2 drastically decreases the activity of the JAK2 JH1 domain, (ii) JH2 increased the Kmfor ATP (iii) JH2 modulates the peptide preference of JAK2 (iv) the V617F mutation partially releases this inhibitory mechanism but does not significantly affect substrate preference or Kmfor ATP. These results provide the biochemical basis for understanding the interaction between the kinase and the pseudokinase domain of JAK2 and identify a novel regulatory role for the JAK2 pseudokinase domain. Additionally, this method can be used to identify new regulatory mechanisms for protein kinases that provide a better platform for designing specific strategies for therapeutic approaches

Splenectomy Normalizes Hematocrit in Murine Polycythemia Vera

Splenic enlargement (splenomegaly) develops in numerous disease states, although a specific pathogenic role for the spleen has rarely been described. In polycythemia vera (PV), an activating mutation in Janus kinase 2 (JAK2V617) induces splenomegaly and an increase in hematocrit. Splenectomy is sparingly performed in patients with PV, however, due to surgical complications. Thus, the role of the spleen in the pathogenesis of human PV remains unknown. We specifically tested the role of the spleen in the pathogenesis of PV by performing either sham (SH) or splenectomy (SPL) surgeries in a murine model of JAK2V617F-driven PV. Compared to SH-operated mice, which rapidly develop high hematocrits after JAK2V617F transplantation, SPL mice completely fail to develop this phenotype. Disease burden (JAK2V617) is equivalent in the bone marrow of SH and SPL mice, however, and both groups develop fibrosis and osteosclerosis. If SPL is performed after PV is established, hematocrit rapidly declines to normal even though myelofibrosis and osteosclerosis again develop independently in the bone marrow. In contrast, SPL only blunts hematocrit elevation in secondary, erythropoietin-induced polycythemia. We conclude that the spleen is required for an elevated hematocrit in murine, JAK2V617F-driven PV, and propose that this phenotype of PV may require a specific interaction between mutant cells and the spleen