Salt-marsh testate amoebae as precise and widespread indicators of sea-level change

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Elsevier via the DOI in this record.Salt-marsh sediments are routinely used to reconstruct sea-level changes over past millennia. These reconstructions bridge an important gap between geological and instrumental sea-level records, and provide insights into the role of atmospheric, oceanic, climatic and anthropogenic sea-level drivers, thereby improving understanding of contemporary and future sea-level changes. Salt-marsh foraminifera, diatoms and testate amoebae are three of the proxies capable of accurately reconstructing former sea level over decadal to millennial timescales. Datasets of surface assemblages are collated along elevational gradients to provide modern analogues that can be used to infer former marsh-surface elevations from fossil assemblages. Testate amoebae are the most recently developed proxy and existing studies suggest that they are at least as precise as the two other proxies. This study provides a synthesis of sea-level research using testate amoebae and collates and analyses existing surface datasets of intertidal salt-marsh testate amoebae from sites throughout the North Atlantic. We test the hypothesis that intertidal testate amoebae demonstrate cosmopolitan intertidal zonation across wide geographical areas in a way that is unique to this proxy. Testate amoebae assemblages are harmonised under a unified taxonomy and standardised into a single basin-wide training set suitable for reconstructing sea-level changes from salt-marsh sediments across the North Atlantic. Transfer functions are developed using regression modelling and show comparable performance values to published local training sets of foraminifera, diatoms and testate amoebae. When used to develop recent (last 100 years) sea-level reconstructions for sites in Norway and Quebec, Canada, the testate amoebae-based transfer function demonstrated prediction uncertainties of ± 0.26 m and ± 0.10 m respectively. These uncertainties equate to 10% and 11% of the tidal ranges at each site, which is of comparable precision to other published sea-level reconstructions based on foraminifera or diatoms. There is great scope for further developing intertidal testate amoebae as precise sea-level indicators and their application should be tested at sites beyond the North Atlantic.Our work on salt-marsh testate amoebae was funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (grant GR9/03426 to WRG and DJC) and by Plymouth University studentships (to RLB and TLN). Datasets from the Magdalen Islands were originally collected using funding from the Coastal Geoscience Research Chair at the Université du Québec à Rimouski

Multiscale model of electronic behavior and localization in stretched dry DNA

When the DNA double helix is subjected to external forces it can stretch elastically to elongations reaching 100% of its natural length. These distortions, imposed at the mesoscopic or macroscopic scales, have a dramatic effect on electronic properties at the atomic scale and on electrical transport along DNA. Accordingly, a multiscale approach is necessary to capture the electronic behavior of the stretched DNA helix. To construct such a model, we begin with accurate density-functional-theory calculations for electronic states in DNA bases and base pairs in various relative configurations encountered in the equilibrium and stretched forms. These results are complemented by semi-empirical quantum mechanical calculations for the states of a small size [18 base pair poly(CG)–poly(CG)] dry, neutral DNA sequence, using previously published models for stretched DNA. The calculated electronic states are then used to parametrize an effective tight-binding model that can describe electron hopping in the presence of environmental effects, such as the presence of stray water molecules on the backbone or structural features of the substrate. These effects introduce disorder in the model hamiltonian which leads to electron localization. The localization length is smaller by several orders of magnitude in stretched DNA relative to that in the unstretched structure

Spectrally and temporally resolved estimation of neural signal diversity

Quantifying the complexity of neural activity has provided fundamental insights into cognition, consciousness, and clinical conditions. However, the most widely used approach to estimate the complexity of neural dynamics, Lempel-Ziv complexity (LZ), has fundamental limitations that substantially restrict its domain of applicability. In this article we leverage the information-theoretic foundations of LZ to overcome these limitations by introducing a complexity estimator based on state-space models — which we dub Complexity via State-space Entropy Rate (CSER). While having a performance equivalent to LZ in discriminating states of consciousness, CSER boasts two crucial advantages: 1) CSER offers a principled decomposition into spectral components, which allows us to rigorously investigate the relationship between complexity and spectral power; and 2) CSER provides a temporal resolution two orders of magnitude better than LZ, which allows complexity analyses of e.g. event-locked neural signals. As a proof of principle, we use MEG, EEG and ECoG datasets of humans and monkeys to show that CSER identifies the gamma band as the main driver of complexity changes across states of consciousness; and reveals early entropy increases that precede the standard ERP in an auditory mismatch negativity paradigm by approximately 20ms. Overall, by overcoming the main limitations of LZ and substantially extending its range of applicability, CSER opens the door to novel investigations on the fine-grained spectral and temporal structure of the signal complexity associated with cognitive processes and conscious states

Low-salinity transitions drive abrupt microbial response to sea-level change

This is the final version. Available on open access from Wiley via the DOI in this recordData availability statement: Authors have data permissions for all data used in this study. Data deriving from published sources are referenced in the manuscript. The datasets used in this study are available from the British Antarctic Survey Polar Data Centre, and the figshare repository (https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.16573346.v1).The salinisation of many coastal ecosystems is underway and is expected to continue into the future because of sea-level rise and storm intensification brought about by the changing climate. However, the response of soil microbes to increasing salinity conditions within coastal environments is poorly understood, despite their importance for nutrient cascading, carbon sequestration and wider ecosystem functioning. Here, we demonstrate deterioration in the productivity of a top-tier microbial group (testate amoebae) with increasing coastal salinity, which we show to be consistent across phylogenetic groups, salinity gradients, environment types and latitude. Our results show that microbial changes occur in the very early stages of marine inundation, presaging more radical changes in soil and ecosystem function and providing an early warning of coastal salinisation that could be used to improve coastal planning and adaptation.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)Sécurité publique du QuébecUniversity of Exete

Utility of salt-marsh foraminifera, testate amoebae and bulk-sediment δ13C values as sea-level indicators in Newfoundland, Canada

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Elsevier via the DOI in this record.We investigated the utility of foraminifera, testate amoebae and bulk-sediment δ 13 C measurements for reconstructing Holocene relative sea level from sequences of salt-marsh sediment in Newfoundland, Canada. Modern, surface sediment was collected along transects from low to supra-tidal elevations in eastern (at Placentia) and western (at Hynes Brook and Big River) Newfoundland. Consistent with previous work, low-diversity assemblages of foraminifera display an almost binary division into a higher salt-marsh assemblage dominated by Jadammina macrescens and Balticammina pseudomacrescens and a lower salt-marsh assemblage comprised of Miliammina fusca. This pattern and composition resembles those identified at other high latitude sites with cool climates and confirms that foraminifera are sea-level indicators. The lowest occurrence of testate amoebae was at approximately mean higher high water. The composition of high salt-marsh testate amoebae assemblages (Centropyxis cassis type, Trinema spp., Tracheleuglypha dentata type, and Euglypha spp.) in Newfoundland was similar to elsewhere in the North Atlantic, but preservation bias favors removal of species with idiosomic tests over those with xenosomic tests. The mixed high salt-marsh plant community in Newfoundland results in bulk surface-sediment δ 13 C values that are typical of C 3 plants, making them indistinguishable from freshwater sediment. Therefore we propose that the utility of this proxy for reconstructing RSL in eastern North America is restricted to the coastline between Chesapeake Bay and southern Nova Scotia. Using a simple, multi-proxy approach to establish that samples in three radiocarbon-dated sediment cores formed between the lowest occurrence of testate amoebae and the highest occurrence of foraminifera, we generated three example late Holocene sea-level index points at Hynes Brook.This work was supported by NSF awards OCE-1458921, OCE-1458904 and EAR-1402017 and the Robert L. Nichols student research fund of the Department of Earth and Ocean Sciences at Tufts University. Foraminiferal data from Hynes Brook and Big River were collected as part of a series of projects including “Ocean-climate variability and sea level in the North Atlantic region since AD 0” funded by the Dutch National Research Programme (NRP) on Global air pollution and Climate Change; “Coastal Records” funded by the Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and “Simulations, Observations & Palaeoclimatic data: climate variability over the last 500 years” funded by the European Union

Effective Feedback to Improve Primary Care Prescribing Safety (EFIPPS) a pragmatic three-arm cluster randomised trial:designing the intervention (ClinicalTrials.gov registration NCT01602705)

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Adaptation responses to climate change differ between global megacities

Urban areas are increasingly at risk from climate change, with negative impacts predicted for human health, the economy and ecosystems1, 2. These risks require responses from cities to improve their resilience. Policymakers need to understand current adaptation spend to plan comprehensively and effectively. Through the measurement of spend in the newly defined ‘adaptation economy’, we analyse current climate change adaptation efforts in ten megacities. In all cases, the adaptation economy remains a small part of the overall economy, representing a maximum of 0.33% of a city’s gross domestic product (here referred to as GDPc). Differences in total spend are significant between cities in developed, emerging and developing countries, ranging from £15 million to £1,600 million. Comparing key subsectors, we demonstrate the differences in adaptation profiles. Developing cities have higher proportional spend on health and agriculture, whereas developed cities have higher spend on energy and water. Spend per capita and percentage of GDPc comparisons more clearly show disparities between cities. Developing country cities spend half the proportion of GDPc and significantly less per capita, suggesting that adaptation spend is driven by wealth rather than the number of vulnerable people. This indicates that current adaptation activities are insufficient in major population centres in developing and emerging economies

Mechanisms for inclusive governance

How mechanisms for inclusive governance are understood is built on the framing choices that are made about governance and that which is being governed. This chapter unpacks how governance can be understood and considers different historical and contemporary framings of water governance. A framing of “governance as praxis” is developed as a central element in the chapter. What makes governance inclusive is explored, drawing on theoretical, practical and institutional aspects before elucidating some of the different mechanisms currently used or proposed for creating inclusive water governance (though we argue against praxis based on simple mechanism). Finally, the factors that either constrain or enable inclusive water governance are explored with a focus on systemic concepts of learning and feedback

Nonlinear landscape and cultural response to sea-level rise

Rising sea levels have been associated with human migration and behavioral shifts throughout prehistory, often with an emphasis on landscape submergence and consequent societal collapse. However, the assumption that future sea-level rise will drive similar adaptive responses is overly simplistic. While the change from land to sea represents a dramatic and permanent shift for preexisting human populations, the process of change is driven by a complex set of physical and cultural processes with long transitional phases of landscape and socioeconomic change. Here, we use reconstructions of prehistoric sea-level rise, paleogeographies, terrestrial landscape change, and human population dynamics to show how the gradual inundation of an island archipelago resulted in decidedly nonlinear landscape and cultural responses to rising sea levels. Interpretation of past and future responses to sea-level change requires a better understanding of local physical and societal contexts to assess plausible human response patterns in the future

A perfect correlate does not a surrogate make

BACKGROUND: There is common belief among some medical researchers that if a potential surrogate endpoint is highly correlated with a true endpoint, then a positive (or negative) difference in potential surrogate endpoints between randomization groups would imply a positive (or negative) difference in unobserved true endpoints between randomization groups. We investigate this belief when the potential surrogate and unobserved true endpoints are perfectly correlated within each randomization group. METHODS: We use a graphical approach. The vertical axis is the unobserved true endpoint and the horizontal axis is the potential surrogate endpoint. Perfect correlation within each randomization group implies that, for each randomization group, potential surrogate and true endpoints are related by a straight line. In this scenario the investigator does not know the slopes or intercepts. We consider a plausible example where the slope of the line is higher for the experimental group than for the control group. RESULTS: In our example with unknown lines, a decrease in mean potential surrogate endpoints from control to experimental groups corresponds to an increase in mean true endpoint from control to experimental groups. Thus the potential surrogate endpoints give the wrong inference. Similar results hold for binary potential surrogate and true outcomes (although the notion of correlation does not apply). The potential surrogate endpointwould give the correct inference if either (i) the unknown lines for the two group coincided, which means that the distribution of true endpoint conditional on potential surrogate endpoint does not depend on treatment group, which is called the Prentice Criterion or (ii) if one could accurately predict the lines based on data from prior studies. CONCLUSION: Perfect correlation between potential surrogate and unobserved true outcomes within randomized groups does not guarantee correct inference based on a potential surrogate endpoint. Even in early phase trials, investigators should not base conclusions on potential surrogate endpoints in which the only validation is high correlation with the true endpoint within a group