Detection and attribution of human influence on regional precipitation

Understanding how human influence on climate is affecting precipitation around the world is immensely important for defining mitigation policies, and for adaptation planning. Yet despite increasing evidence for the influence of climate change on global patterns of precipitation, and expectations that significant changes in regional precipitation should have already occurred as a result of human influence on climate, compelling evidence of anthropogenic fingerprints on regional precipitation is obscured by observational and modelling uncertainties and is likely to remain so using current methods for years to come. This is in spite of substantial ongoing improvements in models, new reanalyses and a satellite record that spans over thirty years. If we are to quantify how human-induced climate change is affecting the regional water cycle, we need to consider novel ways of identifying the effects of natural and anthropogenic influences on precipitation that take full advantage of our physical expectations

Genome-wide diversity and phylogeography of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis in Canadian dairy cattle

Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) is the causative bacterium of Johne’s disease (JD) in ruminants. The control of JD in the dairy industry is challenging, but can be improved with a better understanding of the diversity and distribution of MAP subtypes. Previously established molecular typing techniques used to differentiate MAP have not been sufficiently discriminatory and/or reliable to accurately assess the population structure. In this study, the genetic diversity of 182 MAP isolates representing all Canadian provinces was compared to the known global diversity, using single nucleotide polymorphisms identified through whole genome sequencing. MAP isolates from Canada represented a subset of the known global diversity, as there were global isolates intermingled with Canadian isolates, as well as multiple global subtypes that were not found in Canada. One Type III and six “Bison type” isolates were found in Canada as well as one Type II subtype that represented 86% of all Canadian isolates. Rarefaction estimated larger subtype richness in Québec than in other Canadian provinces using a strict definition of MAP subtypes and lower subtype richness in the Atlantic region using a relaxed definition. Significant phylogeographic clustering was observed at the inter-provincial but not at the intra-provincial level, although most major clades were found in all provinces. The large number of shared subtypes among provinces suggests that cattle movement is a major driver of MAP transmission at the herd level, which is further supported by the lack of spatial clustering on an intra-provincial scale

Population status of four endemic land bird species after an unsuccessful rodent eradication on Henderson Island

Invasive rodents detrimentally affect native bird species on many islands worldwide, and rodent eradication is a useful tool to safeguard endemic and threatened species. However, especially on tropical islands, rodent eradications can fail for various reasons, and it is unclear whether the temporary reduction of a rodent population during an unsuccessful eradication operation has beneficial effects on native birds. Here we examine the response of four endemic land bird species on subtropical Henderson Island in the Pitcairn Island Group, South Pacific Ocean, following an unsuccessful rodent eradication in 2011. We conducted point counts at 25 sampling locations in 14 survey periods between 2011 and 2015, and modelled the abundance trends of all species using binomial mixture models accounting for observer and environmental variation in detection probability. Henderson Reed Warbler Acrocephalus taiti more than doubled in abundance (2015 population estimate: 7,194-28,776), and Henderson Fruit Dove Ptilinopus insularis increased slightly between 2011 and 2015 (2015 population estimate: 4,476–10,072), while we detected no change in abundance of the Henderson Lorikeet Vini stepheni (2015 population estimate: 554–3014). Henderson Crake Zapornia atra increased to pre-eradication levels following anticipated mortality during the operation (2015 population estimate: 4,960–20,783). A temporary reduction of rat predation pressure and rat competition for fruit may have benefitted the reed warbler and the fruit dove, respectively. However, a long drought may have naturally suppressed bird populations prior to the rat eradication operation in 2011, potentially confounding the effects of temporary rat reduction and natural recovery. We therefore cannot unequivocally ascribe the population recovery to the temporary reduction of the rat population. We encourage robust monitoring of island biodiversity both before and after any management operation to better understand responses of endemic species to failed or successful operations

The strong gravitationally lensed Herschel galaxy HLock01: Optical spectroscopy reveals a close galaxy merger with evidence of inflowing gas

The submillimeter galaxy (SMG) HERMES J105751.1+573027 (hereafter HLock01) at z =2.9574 ±0.0001 is one of the brightest gravitationally lensed sources discovered in the Herschel Multi-tiered Extragalactic Survey. Apart from the high flux densities in the far-infrared, it is also extremely bright in the rest-frame ultraviolet (UV), with a total apparent magnitude mUV≃ 19.7 mag. We report here deep spectroscopic observations with the Gran Telescopio Canarias of the optically bright lensed images of HLock01. Our results suggest that HLock01 is a merger system composed of the Herschel-selected SMG and an optically bright Lyman break-like galaxy (LBG), separated by only 3.3 kpc in projection. While the SMG appears very massive (M∗≃ 5 ×1011Mo), with a highly extinguished stellar component (AV≃ 4.3), the LBG is a young, lower-mass (M∗≃ 1 ×1010Mo), but still luminous (10 × LUV∗) satellite galaxy. Detailed analysis of the high signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) rest-frame UV spectrum of the LBG shows complex kinematics of the gas, exhibiting both blueshifted and redshifted absorption components. While the blueshifted component is associated with strong galactic outflows from the massive stars in the LBG, as is common in most star-forming galaxies, the redshifted component may be associated with gas inflow seen along a favorable sightline to the LBG. We also find evidence of an extended gas reservoir around HLock01 at an impact parameter of 110 kpc, through the detection of C ii λλ1334 absorption in the red wing of a bright Lyα emitter at z ≃ 3.327. The data presented here highlight the power of gravitational lensing in high S/N studies to probe deeply into the physics of high-z star-forming galaxies