A multi-model ensemble of downscaled spatial climate change scenarios for the Dommel catchment, Western Europe

Regional or local scale hydrological impact studies require high resolution climate change scenarios which should incorporate some assessment of uncertainties in future climate projections. This paper describes a method used to produce a multi-model ensemble of multivariate weather simulations including spatial-temporal rainfall scenarios and single-site temperature and potential evapotranspiration scenarios for hydrological impact assessment in the Dommel catchment (1,350 km2) in The Netherlands and Belgium. A multi-site stochastic rainfall model combined with a rainfall conditioned weather generator have been used for the first time with the change factor approach to downscale projections of change derived from eight Regional Climate Model (RCM) experiments for the SRES A2 emission scenario for the period 2071-2100. For winter, all downscaled scenarios show an increase in mean daily precipitation (catchment average change of +9% to +40%) and typically an increase in the proportion of wet days, while for summer a decrease in mean daily precipitation (-16% to -57%) and proportion of wet days is projected. The range of projected mean temperature is 7.7°C to 9.1°C for winter and 19.9°C to 23.3°C for summer, relative to means for the control period (1961-1990) of 3.8°C and 16.8°C, respectively. Mean annual potential evapotranspiration is projected to increase by between +17% and +36%. The magnitude and seasonal distribution of changes in the downscaled climate change projections are strongly influenced by the General Circulation Model (GCM) providing boundary conditions for the RCM experiments. Therefore, a multi-model ensemble of climate change scenarios based on different RCMs and GCMs provides more robust estimates of precipitation, temperature and evapotranspiration for hydrological impact assessments, at both regional and local scale

Vitamin D: do we get enough? : A discussion between vitamin D experts in order to make a step towards the harmonisation of dietary reference intakes for vitamin D across Europe

On September 29, 2011, acknowledged experts in the field of vitamin D, mainly European, were brought together in order to discuss the recent scientific advances in relation to vitamin D: the current requirements and associations with various health outcomes. In this article, the discussions resulting from the meeting are summarized. INTRODUCTION: Several groups at risk for developing vitamin D insufficiency have been identified. Accordingly, reviews indicate that a significant percentage of the population worldwide have serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels below 50 nmol/l. In addition to the role of vitamin D in bone health, recent studies suggest that it may play a pivotal role in other systems, e.g., the cardiovascular system, pancreas, muscle, immune system and brain. Most evidence, however, is obtained from observational studies and yet inconclusive. METHODS: To exchange and broaden knowledge on the requirements for vitamin D and its effect on various health outcomes, a workshop entitled "Vitamin D Expert Meeting: Do we get enough?", was organized. RESULTS: Despite low vitamin D levels worldwide, consensus on the definition of deficiency is not yet reached. In order to define cut-off points for vitamin D whilst taking into account extraskeletal health effects, randomized controlled trials in these fields are warranted. The experts do emphasize that there is evidence to suggest an important role for vitamin D in the maintenance of optimal bone health at all ages and that vitamin D supplementation, in most studies co-administered with calcium, reduces fracture risk in the senior population. CONCLUSION: To reach a serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D level of 50 nmol/l older adults aged ≥65 years are therefore recommended to meet a mean daily vitamin D intake of 20 μg (800 IU), which is best achieved with a supplement