Causality in economics with time series data : a guided tour since classical antiquity

Este artigo enquadra o estudo da causalidade em Economia, com dados em s?rie temporal, no contexto mais abrangente da an?lise filos?fica da causalidade. Para o efeito, demonstramos que o espectro de abordagens existentes em Economia resulta das respostas que j? foram dadas, at? agora, aos problemas ontol?gico, epistemol?gico e pragm?tico da causalidade no ?mbito espec?fico dessa disciplina. Conclu?mos ainda que longe de ser a ?nica resposta dispon?vel, correta ou adequada, a onipresente causalidade ? Granger constitui apenas uma das v?rias respostas poss?veis. Numa perspectiva mais geral, nosso objetivo ? proporcionar uma vis?o concisa, mas ao mesmo tempo articulada e historicamente fundamentada acerca das origens, evolu??o e problem?tica da an?lise da causalidade em Economia.5118-0ED1-0B16 | Nino Val?rio Matos da Fonsecainfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Theory, practice and critique of meta-regression analysis in economics and management

Proposta: Este trabalho tem como objetivo apresentar e descrever os principais modelos de meta-regress?o dispon?veis. Metodologia: Efetu?mos uma revis?o da literatura que, partindo da descri??o dos modelos supramencionados, passou pela apresenta??o das respetivas especificidades no contexto da investiga??o emp?rica em economia, gest?o e finan?as, e culminou na discuss?o das suas principais limita??es. Originalidade/Valor: De uma forma sucinta mas rigorosa, damos indica??es precisas para a implementa??o pr?tica deste expediente anal?tico no contexto da economia, gest?o e finan?as.5118-0ED1-0B16 | Nino Val?rio Matos da Fonsecainfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Systematic literature reviews : a summary for the social sciences

Este trabalho tem como objetivo fazer uma apresenta??o sucinta, embora completa e rigorosa, das v?rias etapas de uma revis?o sistem?tica da literatura, tendo em vista a sua aplica??o no contexto das ci?ncias sociais. Para o efeito, propomos a integra??o do enquadramento desenvolvido por Cooper (1982, 2010) e Cooper e Hedges (2009) e do conjunto de contributos sugeridos por v?rios outros autores recentes. As orienta??es apresentadas s?o suscet?veis de aplica??o imediata por parte dos investigadores interessados.5118-0ED1-0B16 | Nino Val?rio Matos da Fonsecainfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Publication bias and genuine effects : the case of Granger causality between tourism and income

Several studies have analysed the relationships between tourism and economic growth by means of tests of Granger causality. However, no consensus has been reached. In this paper our purpose is to synthesize the literature available through a meta-regression analysis. Our results suggest that there is evidence of publication bias and that the empirical effects reported in the literature are non-genuine. Concomitantly, we find that some methodological choices are positively or negatively correlated with the size of the empirical effects. Nevertheless, purged from publication bias, we confirm previous assertions that the variability of the empirical effects can be explained by the degree of tourism specialization, by the level of economic development and by the size of the countries analysed, even though, in some respects, in a different way than expected.5118-0ED1-0B16 | Nino Val?rio Matos da Fonsecainfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Tourism-led growth and granger causality : issues on publication bias

We present the main findings of a research project concerned with the study of the presence of publication bias and significance bias in the literature on the relationships between tourism and economic growth by means of tests of Granger causality. We aim at giving answers to three related research questions: (!) Is there evidence of a preference for the publication of studies tending to the validation of any of the Granger causal hypotheses between tourism and economic activity? (2) Is there evidence of a preference for the publication of statistically significant results, independently of the Granger causal direction dectected? (3) Do the results of this line of research represent agenuine empirical association between tourism and income? The answers found are, respectively, "yes", "yes" and "no". Together with the additional finding that some methodological choices are correlated with the size of the emmpirical effects, we conclude that there are reasons to mistrust the typical methodological approaches followed by the literature reviewed, which cast doutt on its usual implications for economic policy. Nevertheless, purged from bias, we confirm previous assertions that the variability of the emperical effects can be explained by the degree of tourism specialization, by the level of economic development and by the size of the countries analyzed.5118-0ED1-0B16 | Nino Val?rio Matos da Fonsecainfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Causalidad de Granger en las ciencias sociales : una gu?a para la investigaci?n aplicada

Neste trabalho, destinado a investigadores n?o especialistas em an?lise de s?ries temporais, discutimos o alcance e as limita??es dos testes de causalidade ? Granger. Estes testes t?m vindo a ganhar uma aceita??o crescente ao longo das ?ltimas tr?s d?cadas. No entanto, as conclus?es que acompanham os resultados da aplica??o desses testes nem sempre est?o de acordo com o significado do conceito de causalidade ? Granger. Revisitamos esse significado bem como o corpo axiom?tico que o sustenta, e estabelecemos compara??es com os significados alternativos para o conceito de causalidade. Discutimos depois as limita??es das t?cnicas de an?lise de s?ries temporais de um modo geral e dos testes de causalidade ? Granger em particular. Conclu?mos que estes testes n?o permitem determinar, por si s?s, se as vari?veis analisadas est?o efetivamente ligadas entre si atrav?s de rela??es causais no sentido corrente da express?o, ou seja, do tipo causa-efeito ou de algum modo suscet?veis de manipula??o ou controlo. Finalmente, apresentamos algumas implica??es e conselhos relevantes para os investigadores das ci?ncias sociais.5118-0ED1-0B16 | Nino Val?rio Matos da Fonsecainfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Granger causality between tourism and income : a meta-regression analysis

In this article, we sum up the literature on the study of Granger causality relationships between tourism and income using a meta-regression analysis. We conclude that the acceptance of the tourism-led growth hypothesis is likelier the higher the countries? degree of tourism specialization and population size. However, neither these variables nor the level of economic development is relevant for the explanation of the probability of acceptance of the hypothesis of reverse Granger causality. Notwithstanding these results, we find that several features of the research design are associated with the acceptance of both hypotheses.5118-0ED1-0B16 | Nino Val?rio Matos da Fonsecainfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Significance bias in the tourism-led growth literature

We use an original meta-regression analysis to test the existence of bias of statistical significance in the literature on the study of Granger causality relationships between tourism and income. We conclude for the presence of such bias. We also conclude that some methodological choices are more likely to lead to statistically significant results. Additionally, we find that the empirical association between tourism and income is stronger the shorter the time horizon analyzed and that it is correlated with the countries' economic, touristic and demographic profile. Altogether, our results suggest that there are reasons to mistrust the typical methodological approach followed by the literature reviewed and cast doubt on its usual implications for economic policy.5118-0ED1-0B16 | Nino Val?rio Matos da Fonsecainfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

A Conserved Notochord Enhancer Controls Pancreas Development in Vertebrates

The notochord is an evolutionary novelty in vertebrates that functions as an important signaling center during development. Notochord ablation in chicken has demonstrated that it is crucial for pancreas development; however, the molecular mechanism has not been fully described. Here, we show that in zebrafish, the loss of function of nog2, a Bmp antagonist expressed in the notochord, impairs ß cell differentiation, compatible with the antagonistic role of Bmp in ß cell differentiation. In addition, we show that nog2 expression in the notochord is induced by at least one notochord enhancer and its loss of function reduces the number of pancreatic progenitors and impairs ß cell differentiation. Tracing Nog2 diffusion, we show that Nog2 emanates from the notochord to the pancreas progenitor domain. Finally, we find a notochord enhancer in human and mice Nog genomic landscapes, suggesting that the acquisition of a Nog notochord enhancer occurred early in the vertebrate phylogeny and contributes to the development of complex organs like the pancreas.We thank José Luís Gómez-Skarmeta and Paulo Pereira for helpful suggestions and critical reading of the manuscript, Vitor Silva for support in the phylogenetic tree design, and Marta Duque for help in designing the graphical abstract. This study was supported by the European Research Council ( ERC ) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program (grant ERC2015StG680156ZPR ). J.B. acknowledges Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia ( FCT ) for an FCT Investigator position (grant IF/00654/2013 ). J.T. and J.P.A. are PhD fellows from FCT (grant SFRH/BD/126467/2016 to J.T. and grant SFRH/BD/145110/2019 to J.P.A.). M.G. was supported by the EnvMetaGen project via the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program (grant 668981 ). The authors acknowledge the support of i3S Scientific Platform Advanced Light Microscopy, a member of the national infrastructure PPBI ( Portuguese Platform of BioImaging ) (supported by POCI010145FEDER022122 ). We acknowledge the I3S hpc facility, used for processing the 4C-seq data, and André Torres for the useful support. We also thank Francesco Argenton for providing us with a vector for generating an insulin-targeting probe. Finally, we thank Yolanda Roncero and Isabel Guedes for helping to screen and maintain the nog2 ED301 zebrafish line and Tania Medeiros for preliminary work on the function of the notochord in pancreas development